No, you can leave games with no penalty when I was on earlier. No points loss. No suspension. Nothing to do with getting kicked from games

How can you tell if they're quitting vs getting kicked?

Being kicked or not, doesn't matter. You should lose points or be suspended after a few. I played alot of games and many with the same ppl over and over that would just quit and see next game, i can tell you, if you are losing a game and just leave when it's obviously an unwinnable game, you will not lose points or be suspended/warned Also, if you are on your relegation/promotion series, leaving mid match when you know you won't win doesn't count toward a loss or win toward your best of 3 games. I left 2 games in a row because it was clear we would lose and just kept doing that until I got easy games to win my promotion for Ascendant emblem

Gotcha, that's a tough one, you should definitely get dinged if you intentionally quit prior to the end of the match but it's a tougher sell for me to penalize someone for Bungies mistake. They must have turned that off though because I got booted 3 times in a row from Control the other day & got the warning for leaving early even though I obviously didn't. Several others got a temp ban I think.