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postato inizialmente in: 5,760 Hours to Focus One God Roll
12/6/2023 3:45:19 AM
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Your math is correct; but isn’t that the time required to focus every possible roll? Or am I way off? It’s been a *long* time since I’ve been in school.
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  • Modificato da SnookCharmer: 12/6/2023 4:34:34 AM
    Correct. I tried to explain that to some others. On average, a specific combination will appear once per 2,880. That doesn't mean it would always take that many to get the desired roll, of course. (And, possibly, it could take longer.) The best approach is to use probabilistic forecasting with a Monte Carlo simulation (yeah, it's not just a D2 auto rifle, and it's proof someone at Bungie understands statistics) to be able to say, for example, after x number of tries, there's a 90% likelihood one of them will be the desired roll. And as others point out, a perfect 5/5 isn't always necessary; regardless, after playing about a week of mostly vanguard activities, the casual player would have less than a 3% chance to get a 3/5 if they focused all their engrams. Somewhere in the neighborhood of a .1% chance for a perfect roll. My only real point is focusing cost is absurd. Far better off just farming for a random drop. Another argument people are making is, "I've got tons of god rolls" so there's no way the numbers are right. Three problems with that argument: 1) Their rolls are probably 3/5s, not perfect 5/5s 2) They didn't likely acquire those weapons by focusing engrams, certainly not at a cost of 5 engrams per weapon (and hasn't nightfall focusing only been around for a season or two?) and 3) Their rolls likely have two perks to select from in column 3 and/or 4 (doubling or quadrupling the likelihood of them getting what they want vs. focusing which yields weapons with only one perk per column). Actually four problems since a sample size of one is certainly not representative of all users, especially since people on this forum likely play considerably more than the casual player. You obviously understand math better than the adversarial forum trolls in this thread.

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