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2/7/2015 5:38:07 AM
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If you were to roll a die and not see a repeat of one of the six sides in 1000 rolls, then you would claim that someone was intentionally manipulating the outcome of the die?
English
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Editado por EXILED: 2/12/2015 4:21:42 PM
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Damn. I hope you're young
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Die: singular Dice: plural
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You learn something new everyday lol
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nice complete fail there kid. get some maths into you
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Editado por RandyMarsh: 2/7/2015 5:45:46 AMEverything's about chances right... But the chance of these events occurring are nearing the .0001 percentile every time I run my algorithm, my adjusted one, another one on reddit. My adjusted one which I'll post later accounts for variation in drop rates from 1%-50% and removes certain exotics that haven't been sold. Some of the test runs seem to indicate a more close to reality viewing where a semi acceptable situation allowed the plan c to be sold 4 times at a 7.7% chance. Which included removing the exotics that have not been sold, and placing the suros and ice breaker in the 1-50 percentile drop rate out of the total number of exotics.
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You've failed in a number of key areas but can all pretty well be summed up by the word fail. You 'assumed' a whole lot before you started doing your math and did it with very faulty logic. The items are NOT weighed the same, there's a very different value for each weapon as well as each weapon type. i.e. far less likely to sell an exotic shotgun as the only one available to sell is universal remote. Far less likely to sell a heavy weapon period vs anything else being that there's fewer of them to roll from. You could go about it with everything being of equal value, but for that to be a legitimate maths it would require that there be the same number of everything available. You are also not taking into account while the generation of the items may very well be randomized there will always be a way to increase or decrease the chances of rolling a specific item. i.e. all the dlc gear from xur since tbd. It's completely logical to presume that with each DLC the weapon pool will not only grow but the push to aquire the DLC weaponry will also be in full swing. Thus you see something like star fire protocol 5x in a row. It is being generated randomly but with the tags 'dlc' or 'not dlc' as the primary die roll, subsequently rolling on what item it will be afterward.
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If items are not weighed the same, it's not rng.
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Bullshit. Go look at how rng is handled in every single game on the planet.
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is a die weighted differently on each side?
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in this and every other video game rng case... yes. It's not about the die, it's about the number of rolls. no game ever rolls a single die with 1000000 sides to determine what 1 out of that 1000000 items will drop. It will roll in the case of destiny weapons off xur 1 roll to determine primary/special/heavy, then it will roll another die to determine which of the classes of weapon within each slot, THEN it will roll out of those weapons to determine which one it is. i.e. die roll 1 determines it's a primary, die roll 2 determines it's a handcannon, then die roll 3 determines which one it sells. 4 classes of primary weaponry, 3 classes of special and only 2 classes of heavy. the chances of it rolling something like a gjally are MUCH smaller than rolling the last word. There's only 4 total heavy weapons it can roll from when it actually does get to that heavy die selection. those being truth, thunderlord, dragons breath and gjally. Dragons breath is also going to appear more often than the others being that as every DLC comes out there will be an additional die roll to determine whether it's a DLC exotic or not with the DLC side of the die being larger than the vanilla. This is the way it's worked for GENERATIONS of rngesus. Do a little research and stop being a dumb shit conspiracy theorist.
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Even though the occurrence of an outcome occurring under a specified set of conditions is infinitesimally small, you cannot claim that it will not occur under those conditions. Until it is either proven that there is absolutely no chance of the event occurring under those conditions or Bungie official states that Xur is not RNG, I will always have doubt that it is true.
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Cosmic chances are cosmic.
