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2/2/2015 4:15:10 AM
790
Hey, there. Let me attempt to clear some things up here.
Xur is randomized. There are times when we can pull off miracles like making him stay in the Tower longer when Christmas is cancelled, but his inventory is governed by the same chaos that influences all the loot drops.
Comments in that video about "the plan" were more about the fact that we know what he's selling before he appears, even if we can't reach out and stock his shelves ourselves. We set him in motion, and his will is not his own.
Also in that video, you can hear me confessing that I'm not always in the loop when it comes to these things, so you should take pre-game lobby comments among friends with a grain of salt. That video was from months ago, and I was still learning the intricacies of all the new systems that we launched with the game.
These conspiracy theories are symptoms of a burning desire. Gjallarhorn is the most popular ask that comes my way. I know you want it, even more than the collective requests for more vault space. As you can see, these are things that are beyond my control. I don't have one either.
I'll do my best to talk to the people who create the code that drives Xur, and see if we can make him more valuable to you in the future.
English
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Each outcome has the same probability, yes. When you start specifying a specific set of outcomes, however, you start to compound the probabilities. So, while any given week has the same probability of Xur stock, The odds of two stocks being identical is drastically lower. The odds of me rolling a die and getting a 1 is 1/6. The odds of me rolling 1 and then another 1 is 1/36, since I have 2 conditions to satisfy, not just 1. The most important thing to bear in mind, however, is that any event with a non-zero probability of occurring is a possible outcome regardless of how high or low the probability is.
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Yes, but that is the compounded prob., which is only theoretical. Next week, assuming everything about his inventory selection stays the same, he would have the same prob. of that identical dragon breath inventory again, as he would any other set. Even if that prob. is really low. So are any other set. It is just an anomaly that the identical set was picked twice.
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Not sure about this. Say that to the dude who made this.
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Not saying he didn't crunch the numbers correctly. But he is making some huge assumptions about equal prob on each item (ie, no weighting), and that every item is RNG'ed, and not picked from subgroups, like I mentioned before. Also, why would Bungie intentionally piss off their customers by doing something like selling sunbreakers 6 times in a row or whatever it was. They would have know that would blow up in their face. And of course, it did.
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[quote]From reddit : http://www.reddit.com/r/DestinyTheGame/comments/2u6pbk/probability_of_xur_selling_the_exact_the_same/ [b]Probability of Xur selling the exact same items as Jan 2[/b] [quote]First of all, lets assume the probability of rolling each item is the same. There are 14 possible exotic weapons and 9 of each class exotics Xur can sell, creating 10206 possible rolls. Using binomial distribution, number of trials is 5 as 5 weeks passed since he sold this set of items and the probability of success would be 1/10206. Therefore, the odds of Xur selling this same exact set of items twice in 5 weeks is equal to 1 in 1.04194*107 or roughly 1 in 10 million. So much for RNG.... [b]TL;DR Odds are 1 in 10 million[/b][/quote][/quote] Problem with this is some items are obviously weighted
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Obviously? How so? I could roll a die 20 times and get 1 every time. Does that make 1 weighted?
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Well if you're in the mood to make responses to Xûr probes, than I have one for you: Was it Bungie's decision to increase the weighting of DLC items in Xûr's inventory to encourage people to buy the DLC, or was it Activisions? We've had all of the new stuff and many items have been offered more than once (Dragon, NLB, Starfire etc) in the short space of time the DLC has been out, I find it hard to believe this is just chance or that you would allow it with your (bungies) usual ethics. So I'm guessing Activision is forcing you to peddle them. Can you comment on this please?
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DeeJ you literally admit to it. Now is your chance to make both sides happy. You don't have to tell us what he's selling, you just have to tell us the truth. Why are we not worth that?
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Imagine that, I was right all along. I really hope all those people failing at statistics (gambler's fallacy) submit their work to their statistics teacher, so that they can be made fun of.
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I'm in a stats class right now and I'm kinda confused. As far as I know (notably not much at the moment) the probability of event x happening each week is independent of all other weeks and has a set probability of happening. Over the space of a few trials the chances of event x happening multiple times in that time frame should decrease shouldn't they? Not to say that on trial one the chance was 1/15 and on week two it's 1/30, I understand that each week the chance should stay the same. But the chances of getting event x, then another event x should be lower than the chances of having an event x then an event y or z shouldn't it?
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Editado por ManBearPigIets: 2/2/2015 4:11:40 PMBasically, the unlikelyhood of it happening is from the perspective of before anything occurred, from the perspective of each new 'roll' the chance is the same as before. I'll use sunbreakers as an example. Say he sold them 3 times in a row, and the next week he may or may not sell it again. The suggestion here is that since selling 4 in such a short period of time is so incredibly unlikely, it must be rigged. But it's not any more unlikely to have been, say, Light Beyond Nemesis. Using the pre-dlc total of 8 possible exotics for the warlock class 4 sunbreakers in a row: (1/8)^4 = 1/4096 or a 0.024% total chance. 3 sunbreakers in a row, then light beyond nemesis: (1/8)^3 * (1/8) = 1/4096 Or a 0.024% total chance. Feel free to project the numbers to any length 'streak'. It is only a 0.024% chance before any of it happened. After each one, the results of the previous ones are no longer unknown, each one is back to that 1/8th chance. Reasoning that an individual one was influenced by the past is the fallacy, there is no guiding force trying to 'correct' the mistake and balance itself out, it doesn't care what the previous ones were and isn't affected by them in the slightest, so there should be no reason to think a streak is more unlikely than not. People just have a tendency to think that way, instead of thinking of how massive the sample size would have to be for it to come close to that 1/4096 ratio.
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I'll do my best to talk to the people who create the code.... DeeJ. Just actually do it. Don't say you will try, Just DO IT
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He can't make any guarantees - surely you realise how the community would react if he said he would but the developers in charge couldn't or wouldn't change anything? At least Deej clarified the Xur system a bit!
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That;s only fair. What bothers me is the multiple times he's claimed it's all RNG Or when he immediately responded to this post, but not others
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ahhh, someone is pretty fast to respond to something now...
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Biggest lie, talk about damage control
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Xur has the EXACT same inventory as he did 2 weeks ago. That's a 1 in 10 000 chance of happening. Xur isn't random.
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So you are telling me there is a chance? Haha, stuff is almost certainly weighted. There are other problems with that stat as well, but I already posted it, so scroll around if you want the rest.
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[quote]Xur has the EXACT same inventory as he did 2 weeks ago. That's a 1 in 10 000 chance of happening. Xur isn't random.[/quote] Weighted items. For some reason you people think of random as pure randomness. That's not always the case.
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Editado por The Smoker II: 2/2/2015 6:40:30 AM[quote]These conspiracy theories are symptoms of a burning desire.[/quote] Wrong, it's a symptom of Bungie's poor communication with the community. If you would be honest with the community nearly all conspiracies would disappear.
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"Xur is not random". I'm taking your own words here, Deej.
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Like he said he wasn't completely aware of how things worked at the time of the video. Because some Devs knew what xur was selling he probably assumed it is not random
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Editado por Roughneck: 2/2/2015 6:39:28 AMMan, you must all speak a whole different set of English there at Bungie than what I'm used to hearing because where I'm from "it's not random" means just that. It usually doesn't require a whole wall of text explaining what we "really" meant.
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Its a statistical anomaly of how many times he's sold those warlock gauntlets, so there is no way it's randomized
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[quote]Its a statistical anomaly of how many times he's sold those warlock gauntlets, so there is no way it's randomized[/quote] Weighted items
