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2/2/2015 4:15:10 AM
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Hey, there. Let me attempt to clear some things up here.
Xur is randomized. There are times when we can pull off miracles like making him stay in the Tower longer when Christmas is cancelled, but his inventory is governed by the same chaos that influences all the loot drops.
Comments in that video about "the plan" were more about the fact that we know what he's selling before he appears, even if we can't reach out and stock his shelves ourselves. We set him in motion, and his will is not his own.
Also in that video, you can hear me confessing that I'm not always in the loop when it comes to these things, so you should take pre-game lobby comments among friends with a grain of salt. That video was from months ago, and I was still learning the intricacies of all the new systems that we launched with the game.
These conspiracy theories are symptoms of a burning desire. Gjallarhorn is the most popular ask that comes my way. I know you want it, even more than the collective requests for more vault space. As you can see, these are things that are beyond my control. I don't have one either.
I'll do my best to talk to the people who create the code that drives Xur, and see if we can make him more valuable to you in the future.
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Is the heavy ammo pack also randomized? Because I find it hard to believe that its only by chance that Xur stopped selling them a week before HM Crota dropped and hasn't sold them ever since because 6 people with rockets and bunch of heavy synths totally trivializes your hard mode raids?
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nice damage control. just admit you were caught out being honest for once. you were lulled into complacency in a lobby and you slipped up. its refreshing to hear youre an actual person not some pr-robot spewing shit and lies at us once a week
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If Xur is randomised, can you clarify the statement you (DeeJ) made regarding Plan C being sold by Xur twice in a row, on the weekend prior to the DLC release? You made a comment to the effect of "do you really want a new exotic that will be superceded (300 -> 331) in just a few days?" Your statement implied that Plan C being sold twice was planned and not randomised.
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Probably meant "do you really want to buy an exotic if the one next week [regardless if it's the same weapon] will be stronger?" Why are you hanging on to what you think he meant when making a vague statement a few weeks ago, when he's saying something outright and clear as day now? Some people are so stupid it hurts me....
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Or he was just saying shut the f up you crying little babies, but in a nicer way for the crying little babies
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Good point
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Just get them to stop selling a 17 strange coin item. Preferably an auto rifle, but any primaries good. It's all I ask
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Not that I really care that much about Xur..I'm only missing Thunderlord as my last Exotic gun. I've been after Praxic Fire since I started playing ,but you clearly say he isn't random. Lies..Lies..Lies. Bungie told you to post here ,because someone had actual proof of YOU saying he wasnt. If you didn't know..You would have said that you didn't have any idea. Video game companies are deceitful now. The industry is getting worse and worse. I love this game to death but Activision gutted it ,and has Bungie lying to the public like they do all the time. He said Xur isn't random..so he isnt. No big deal ,but Deej don't post in here and lie about it. We're not stupid. Should have just stuck with he isn't...at least then ppl would accept the fact you guys set DLC items in there to push it. Which as company you should do. That being said...Xur needs to sell things ppl need once and awhile. Not every week like some of these self entitled little brats want. My advice to you is to lie to your customers. Not a good business practice.
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Agree 100%. I like that you posted w out being irrational/emotional.
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I think you do need to talk to the coders and give the people what they want, because me and many other people who have played this near to everyday since release are just getting plain screwed, 1 for one have decided I'm not playing anymore until I see changes until then I'm done!
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Holy crap and what if Bungie controls Xur, and its not totally random? What then? Should he only sell Ghorns, Icebreakers, and Suros? What do people want from Xur exactly? The fact is, you started playing this game without even knowing who the hell Xur was, once you became accustomed you began to build wishlists, and now that everyone who plays a good amount is pretty much missing those 1 or 2 exotics they want, people are getting frustrated and suspicious. You see Im not complaining, I can wait my turn, but I can understand the frustration that comes with seeing 2 post expansion exotics on sale while one pre expansion exotic was only sold at a time few had the wisdom or currency to purchase it. It would probably be smart to sell the Ghorn next week. I mean I don't believe any of us are owed anything, but like I said the RNG has been unforgiving, and its at the point now where, you have people who have put 300+ hours into the game with 3 30+ characters and no Gjallarhorn, while the 1500 grimoire score christmas noob youre inspecting is rocking the horn without extra heavy ammo boots like some blasted heathen. A little bit disheartening, just because the weapon has been so idolized.
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Editado por U5334926: 2/2/2015 8:30:54 AMHe's not selling it, any hardcore players myself included will leave if this happens. There is no other game that gives the best weapon out like candy. Wow, borderlands, borderlands2 are just a few examples. I put hundreds of hours into borderlands 2 and never got the bee shield. But did I go on the forums and bïtch. No because mmos are a grind and that's why destiny is a joke. Combining an fps and an mmo pisses off both sides of the community. And with the mmo players leaving faster than i have ever seen, this game doesnt have a bright future. You can tell this game is dead by going on ur friends list. Out of my 150+ friends and with 60 or so on maybe 2 are playing destiny.
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Two weeks after I started BLands 2, a friend of mine joined my game and dropped a full inventory of exotics, then left. At first I was so thrilled. Bee shield, hide of terramorphous, Bonus Package, you name it. But it killed a lot of the game. That's why I don't want trading in Destiny and appreciate the grind. When I get that exotic drop, even if it's something I don't want, it's still exciting. I worked for it. If I had it my way, Xür wouldn't even come, or like some people have said only once a month. Some people need to shut up and accept their freebies.
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Yes. This.
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this my god this..... ^
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Kind of ridiculous that the community manager responds to a user created thread to clear up a question surrounding what has become a MAJOR gripe from the community aaaaand, all anyone can do is complain. Or refute his response. If this isn't communicating with the community, what is? Not what you wanted to hear? Oh well, it is a definitive answer to a specific concern. Works for me. I appreciate the response, Deej. I will keep grinding for my Gjally, and after that I will find something else that I 'must have'
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Editado por BannedMythicAccount: 2/2/2015 8:30:25 AMYou gave such a butt kiss response. But I guess doing your job nowadays has it's perks when you actually do it. Having a positive reaction is nice. It's just a shame it took 4-5 months of nearly everyday speculation of Xur to finally have an answer that could have been produced in a minute. I guess at this point we should all be grateful we even received an answer at all. It's all to do with expectations. I think the majority just felt that Bungie had a strong relationship with it's community like in the Halo days. It's obviously not true with Destiny. And that's the greatest shame, because Destiny is built for social interaction. So for Bungie to regress only hurts expectations. But more importantly, community relationship between the product and the audience. This is an area where they're hurting their own sales and they could easily help growth just by being active and engaging the audience, on more than just a per monthly basis.[excluding the now facade that is the weekly update] And I've seen the behind the scene stuff Bungie do with youtube sensations. I'm glad AngryJoe had the integrity to not fall for that PR crap. What Bungie has become now, is isolated to marketing before it's existing fanbase. Deej's activity although maybe sincere, is perhaps the best representation of that.
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Heart of Praxic Fire??
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From reddit : http://www.reddit.com/r/DestinyTheGame/comments/2u6pbk/probability_of_xur_selling_the_exact_the_same/ [b]Probability of Xur selling the exact same items as Jan 2[/b] [quote]First of all, lets assume the probability of rolling each item is the same. There are 14 possible exotic weapons and 9 of each class exotics Xur can sell, creating 10206 possible rolls. Using binomial distribution, number of trials is 5 as 5 weeks passed since he sold this set of items and the probability of success would be 1/10206. Therefore, the odds of Xur selling this same exact set of items twice in 5 weeks is equal to 1 in 1.04194*107 or roughly 1 in 10 million. So much for RNG.... [b]TL;DR Odds are 1 in 10 million[/b][/quote]
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The guy that created that reddit post admitted his math was completely off. There are numerous replies with the correct math. The top one being that the reality is the chance is approximately 1:10,000 and not 1 in a million. It then goes on to further elaborate that the chance he sells Sunbreakers, Starfire Protocol, or Voidfang Vestments week-after-week is actually 1:9, and the odds that No Land Beyond or Gjallarhorn are chosen repeatedly are 1:14. All these conspiratards that think he's still not RNG have succumbed to what is called in statistics and probabilities the "gambler's fallacy" or the opposite "hot-hand fallacy." They need to go back and retake some old introductory math and statistics classes.
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The fact is nobody knows exactly how it works. The sheer fact that heart of praxic Fire hasn't been sold yet despite 7 showings of voidfang and 3 Starfire protocol in the last 4 weeks in the very least point to the exotic pool being weighted making some exotics more available then others, thereby creating exotic tiers. This would explain the repetitiveness in such a small loot pool and why people have been so frustrated. It's also an issue that would resolve itself over time the more weapons are added to the pool.
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OK, so we hit the 1 in 10mil chance, so? Royal flushes happen, man.
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Editado por ZER0ez: 2/2/2015 7:14:21 AMBad stat is bad stat. The PROBABILITY is the same each time. Your logic is like playing roulette and saying, "it has been red 10x in a row, what are the odds of 11 reds in a row? That's practically impossible" nope, still the same odds as getting another red. Nothing changed. Also, Deej didn't say the rng wasn't weighted. So your 1 in 10 million is just not the case. Edit: Forgot to mention the "card theory" As in there are 'cards' or chunks of items in the inventory pool, that get selected (like your rng legendary weapons, or exotic bounty offerings) Certain things come in a package if that card is RNGed. Thus the odds would be for several cards to come up the same, vs every single item popping up the same. But hey, 2 weeks in a row I got an identical drop containing the Vex Mytho, Ship, and 2 helmets from Atheon. What are the odds of that I wonder? I'm gonna go with . . . Super low. But it happened.
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For isolated events, yes, the probability is unaffected, but for a specific series of events, the probability is cumulative. The odds of predicting the 11th roll are the same as the first roll, but you have much lower odds of predicting something like "the next 10 rolls will be red," due to cumulative probability.
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Right, but in actuality, it is a single event which should be just as likely as any other outcome. No matter how low the probability is for each outcome.
