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4/7/2025 8:37:36 PM
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You're probably more likely to be attacked by a shark in a desert or struck by lightening in a Faraday cage than get one of these weapons.
I have not had one since this season began 💁♂️
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I wrote this in response to someone who claimed pokemon shiny hunting has worse odds than destiny. 😂😂😂 You speak some truth. HOWEVER, it does not take the entire picture into account. Let’s say Pokémon shiny odds are 1/4000 for simplicities sake. Once you get that shiny you can train it however you like. Modern mechanics allow you to change natures, evs and ivs fairly easily now. So a shiny pokemon will never be “bad” for whatever it is. Now switching to Destiny. Obviously I don’t know the exact percentage Bungie put in for the rarity, but for arguments sake let’s say 1/100 is the chance for an additional perk or “shiny” weapon. 1/100 seems much better right? Well 1/100 is only to get the weapon. Not to get any one specific thing on the weapon. I’ll use the eyes unveiled linear fusion for the following example. It has 9 possible barrels and rolls with 2 each time. So a 2/9 chance for whatever barrel you want. It has 6 possible battery perks and rolls with 2 each time. So 2/6 or 1/3 to get what you’d like. Each perk slot has 7 possible perks and rolls with 2 each time on the “shiny” weapon. So a 2/7 chance 2 times. Finally a masterwork has a 1/5 chance to drop on the one you are looking for. So putting all of this together results in the following odds to get your desired end result. (1/100) * (2/9) * (1/3) * (2/7) * (2/7) * (1/5) =0.0000121 or a 1/82,687 chance to get your desired weapon. So even if you could get a drop as often as you could reset or hunt for a shiny (which is definitely not true. Not even close) you would find approximately 20 shiny pokemon before you got the roll you wanted on a shiny weapon in destiny. TLDR: Destiny has waaaaaaaaay worse odds than Pokemon.
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Wow, thanks for the mind blowing maths lesson haha. But seriously, since this thread was first posted, I've had a few masterworked versions and 2 adept. I'm still waiting for a masterworked adept (if indeed they exist at all), but I guess people are chasing different god rolls too. For example, some 3rd party sites and streamers recommend weapons that carry the slideways or field prep traits, but these are the ones that I immediately scrap because I never slide, and never crouch while firing. Even so, the drop rates in general are very low. I've also noticed that the reprised weapons are nothing like the old versions I have in my vault. Ok, new perks, but the original versions, seem to pack a lot more punch, and don't get me started on exotic armour. Ever since Rahool started selling it, I haven't had ONE ROLL that has had better stats than the ones that I originally got from lost sectors, (apart from the newest ones that were introduced later) or that randomly dropped from engrams. It's as though Bungie are dishing out loot like it's gone out of fashion, but they're being [b][i]very careful[/i][/b] to make sure it's of poor quality. Every new one has been infused into my early armour.
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Editado por amazing_month041: 4/11/2025 5:36:07 AM[quote]I'm still waiting for a masterworked adept (if indeed they exist at all)[/quote] someone completed over 250 expert Court of Blades but let's go with 250 : If we assume a 5% drop rate (0.05 probability) for a shiny adept weapon per run, we can calculate the probability of not getting one over 250 runs. The formula for the probability of not getting a shiny adept drop in a single run is: P(no drop)=1−P(drop) For 250 runs: P(no shiny in 250 runs)=(1−0.05) 250 The probability of not getting a single shiny adept in 250 runs is approximately 0.00027% (about 1 in 370,800). Even with theoretically 5% drop chance it's very low Seeing my dad returning after leaving me right after i was born has higher chances than getting a shiny adept Edit: considering the fact that CoB needs to be done quicker than nether because the timer there's a possibility about shiny adepts has lower drop chance in CoB than in the Nether
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Thanks for another in depth break down of the drop rates. And my sympathies about your childhood ( I doubt if you would make a joke of something that poignant) Good luck with the drops 🤞
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Editado por MNN8TV: 4/11/2025 4:06:28 AMThe masterworked adepts certainly exist. But they make raid exotics look common. I’ve only met a few people who have one. I got a sidearm myself. Thankfully it was very good. Good hunting to you! (And hope for a loot drop buff 🤣)
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Cheers 👍
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Editado por jhermannITJ: 4/10/2025 4:22:32 AM3 each time on shinys. And tiered enhancement, I wager, will allow us to pick the mag and barrel. Also, with the portal system you'll be able to massage/focus your drops. Potentially 4/49 or 1/12.25 if we'll be able to focus one weapon at a time via portal + investment... you might have to level the weapon to 200 in order to change the barrel, mag, and masterwork. That's with 2 perks in the 3rd and 4th. With 3 it's 0.18367346938 or 9/49 = 1/5.5 I assume we won't be able to guarantee any weapon drop, but we'll be able to weight the rng via attunement as before. 1/12.25 Or 1/5.5 Is an example for analysis, it will intend on how many offerings in each pool and how their weighted. Still things are going to change, we'll see. As an example say (2/7)*(2/7)*(2/5) 0.03265305122 8/245 1/30.6 That seems like where we're headed, imo + 200 weapon levels. So, for 1 perk lines in the 3rd and 4th? 0.00816326530 2/245 1/122.5 That looks better, doesn't it?
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1.) Only 3 perks if you have all worms for both paths. Which most people don’t. 2.) Enhancing does not allow for picking the barrels or mags unless they have a craftable counterpart. So raid weapons essentially. 3.) I have 0 idea what this “portal” system you are talking about is. Currently there is no way to manipulate drops except the tome of want. Which only increases drop frequency not shiny odds. 4.) Everything only gets more incoherent from there. You are just throwing fractions at me. So no it looks worse actually 😅
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Editado por jhermannITJ: 4/10/2025 5:38:47 AMSubject to the enhancement changes sure. And no, I did the math... Did you? Or did you just regurgitate it? You clearly have a bias. All signs point to better rng in the future, better determinative loot. As indicated & partially explained in the Frontier's previews... [url=https://www.bungie.net/7/en/News/article/new_frontiers]New Frontiers[/url] Under 'Portal'... stuff like this: [i]"Bonus Rewards Every day, several activities in each Category will have bonus rewards added to their standard offering. These bonus rewards will include things like: Specific weapons Specific armor Slots Currencies, like Enhancement Materials or Strange Coins The bonus reward is guaranteed from the first daily clear, and available at a high drop rate on future clears. Activities with bonus rewards will be sorted to the top and easy to find, so that you can quickly scan what’s available and decide if any are worth chasing. For matchmade activities they will also offer matchmaking at a wider range of difficulty options". [/i]
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1.) I am talking about what is in the game, currently, right now. Even if I wasn’t, these weapons won’t be farmable next season anyway. 2.) You did multiply fractions together I’ll give you that. I’m not sure why you would ask me if I did or not. You can see each number, and the reason behind it separated into small text chunks for clarity. 3.) Bias towards what? You? No, I’ve never met you before. Bungie? Not really. Shiny weapons have better odds than the normal weapons of dropping with perk combos you are after. I am just stating that the odds are still very very bad.
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Editado por jhermannITJ: 4/10/2025 6:09:50 AMYou're clearly biased, negative... and mischaracterizing the data to serve your bias. I don't think you did the math at ALL. Otherwise, the metrics I gave wouldn't have confused you. Easy to sniff out. That's why I did it. Arguably the best loot pool we've ever had, improving within a couple months. As I predicted, as has been happening episode to episode. You're characterizing data that is incomplete... an Adept Shiny is a lottery ticket perfectly rolled... and that's fine for right now. If you saw my haul... I must be an anomaly. Nope, you're just wrong because how you're skewing and manipulating the data. If you don't play the odds are worse, lol. That's essentially what you're saying with the worms. If you don't buy into attunement your odds are worse, if you don't get all the loot boons your odds are worse? Weird, how that works. 😇👍💠
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Yes you are an anomaly that’s how math works. Just because the odds of something aren’t good doesn’t mean it’s bad for everyone. It just makes it less likely. So if anyone is biased or would be you. Basing your argument based on personal experience and not data. I’ve gotten a god roll double perk adept sidearm. The odds for that are well under 1/100,000 but that is just anecdotal evidence that something is possible. I’m not sure how I can “manipulate” fractions with the work spelled out step by step. I learned this in high school statistics. Permutations and combinations unit. Link to the original post. I’m not being negative. Just factual. When you compound RNG over and over again the odds get really bad really quickly. It’s the same thought process with lottery tickets. Each number has a 1/10 chance of being correct so with each added number the odds of you being correct decrease by a power of 10. https://www.bungie.net/en/Forum/Post/264698449/0/0
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But you didn't include the extra perk. And, [i]"4.) Everything only gets more incoherent from there. You are just throwing fractions at me". [/i] It wasn't, those fractions..., came from the same math you keep copy & pasting. And it confused you. That indicates to me... you don't actually understand it. I was showing my work... the integer, the fractions. I was extrapolating showing how you're focused on a biased extremity of these figures... that's not how it works. Because I won the lottery, I have a 4 perked Adept GL. That's not all... I stopped grinding for seasonal adepts, to exclude them. I keep hitting my numbers on shinys... almost every weapon in the Nether. There's no way your figures/math you copied from 'somewhere' are correct. 😇👍💠
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Fractions are inherently not integers btw. By definition integers are whole numbers. So there wasn’t a single integer in your entire post. And before you say it, no the numerators and denominators don’t count. They are part of the fractions. So yes, I understand what you are doing. I just didn’t know WHY you were doing it. Which we discussed as potential future changes bungie will make. I have already addressed this point as well, stating that my math is representing the current state of the game. Even if I felt like theorizing about if Bungie will keep their original ideas in the link you provided, it would not matter. Unless they make a drastic change, seasonal weapons are not farmable outside the expansion year they were introduced in. Yes I intentionally didn’t include the third perk possibilities. Didn’t ever try to deny that. Obviously it improves the odds. You just increase the numerator by one on each of the fractions representing the last 2 perk slots. But because not everyone has it, I excluded it. Once again your circumstantial evidence does not matter at all in a discussion about probability. Some people will have good luck, and some people will have bad luck. That’s how statistical variance works. The calculated probability is the average experience. Not absolute law for each individual. Finally, if you can’t see that fractions were multiplied correctly with step by step instructions, I truly could not help you if I wanted to. I don’t need to copy and paste something a 5th grader can do. That’s like accusing me of getting someone to type this for me. Sure it could be true. But why? So give up on the personal attacks would you. Those are just easy to spot replacements for an actual argument. Interpersonal communication is an interesting subject to study if you’d ever like to learn about how to compare a strong argument to a weak one.
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Same here! Act 3 drop rate seems significantly needed for some reason!
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Dude this reply actually made me laugh out loud. I feel they nerfed all PvE drop rates somehow. I’ve farmed Onslaught in my free time and get nothing
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Good luck dude. I saw a pig fly past my window earlier so things are looking up 😂
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“So you’re saying there’s a chance?” - Lloyd, Dumb and Dumber
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Editado por Motorhead England: 4/9/2025 5:45:34 PMHahaha, maybe a very slim one! They'll probably nerf them into the ground then sell them at Xur when this season is over.
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Xur should just sell all Menagerie, Leviathan, Mars, and past weapons each week. So sick of wasting time and not being rewarded
