I've been using UPnP. Yesterday I reset my router and reconfigured my internet back to the UPnP format. It worked for two logins, after that the same problem started occurring again.
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Any of the conditions in your local network change, e.g. did you switch from wired to wireless? There may be separate settings on your router for wired vs wifi, which in some cases would explain this behavior. On the other hand, your ISP may also be blocking certain traffic/ports, which would be something you'd need to confirm with them.
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Only one change since start of ownership, has been a wired connection through a wireless router. Only time was when I activated my dynamic IP (had to pay extra for that), but that was over a year ago and I didn't have these kinds of problems back then. May need to ask them if they have been messing with my ports tho.