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Editado por SweetTeaJ:
12/27/2014 9:10:52 AM
134
If You Think Xur Is Random You're Stupid
PART 1: Let's take one class, doesn't matter which, there are 9 exotics. So Xur has a 1 in 9 chance of selling a certain exotic, now let's say we want that same exotic to be sold again. There is a 1.234% chance that happens. This happens every week!!!! Not to mention the fact he didn't sell an Engram but the point is Xur doesn't sell stuff we won't because that the reason we play is to get stuff we want! If we had everything we wouldn't play! So quit complaining about Xur the odds aren't in our favor and never will be.
PART 2: This is from a first week stand point. Saying that a certain exotic will be sold two week in a row. I understand once it's sold once it's a 1 in 9 chance the next week.
PART 3: For those guys saying 1/6 chance no matter what: Lets make a bet using SOME OF YOUR GUYS LOGIC. A coin flip for a hundred dollars, you heads me tails,with 50/50 chance now with this logic I can flip the coin 10 times and if it lands tails once, I win. Seems fair eh?
PART 4: I did not consider weighted exotics. This is a very good point which would raise the chance of this happening depending on the actual weight of that exotic. Still kinda strange how often it happens.
PART 5: If you want to leave a hateful comment then please be my guest. I will not argue with any of you people but if you want to help or have any additional information, please leave it below!
PART 6: Random, from a statistics stand point is a process of selection in which each item of a set has an equal probability of being chosen.
Final Part: I'm official bored with arguing with idiots, if you guys want to argue to each other go ahead but I'm done here.
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17 RespuestasHere is the biggest problem, right off the bat you are assuming they didn't weight each item. It could still be random, but certain items may have a higher chance of being selected. No developer is going to sit around and be like "let me screw with the people playing my game and give them the same thing over and over". That's what a child does, not a professional developer. Hate to burst your bubble, but it is very likely to be some sort of weighted RNG system.
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Da -blam!- is the point of this stupid post? Another wanna be mathematician, get the -blam!- out of here bitch
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Editado por M DuBBS 303: 12/30/2014 12:17:00 AMGambler's fallacy.
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People who cannot communicate without pointless insults in the topic should be muted by everyone. We can clean up this place is we choose to.
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1 RespuestaSo... you're so cocksure of a mere conjecture that you're ready to insult everyone that disagrees? Hmm. Pathetic.
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It has a 1/9 chance of selling the same exotic again. Roll a nine sided die. It has a chance on landing on the same number twice. However, I wouldn't rule out Lizard Squad from hacking the loot system.
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No you're random!
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If you think Xur is stupid, you're correct.
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I get the logic bit seek even said they can't control what he sells
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1 RespuestaJust to clarify for those that don't get it. lets say theres 10 exotics to simplify numbers. This week xur has a 1/10 chance of selling exotic x. Next week there is still a 1/10 chance he will sell x. the odds that you just so happen to get x 2 weeks in a row is 1/100 or a 1% chance of happening. 3 weeks in a row is 0.1%. Both have happened numerous times with sunbreakers, voidfang, and now the claws have made it 2 weeks as well
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Editado por harrymfa: 12/28/2014 6:17:09 AMAll I say is, expect No Land Beyond to be the next Sunbreakers. That Xur is going to sell those every other week now. Also, the decision not to sell engrams is calculated.
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Obv it's random but not really. Randomly generate a number between 1 and 100. A 99 and 100 will get you heart of Praxic Fire, a 1-60 voidfang vestments, a 61-79 sunbreakers, and a 80-98 claws of Ahamkara. You get the idea.
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I was playing poker once and i got out trip-ed on 2 straight hands. Odds of that are close to 1 in 100,000. And yet it happened.
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I can't find my comment to edit so I'll add this new.. Please look up the definition of random.. If we can all agree they (probably, were all assuming Herr) weight items, then it can't be random by definition.. That's all people are arguing here.. Definitions.. 19 weapons.. All equally weighted and put through a RNG? K.. Random We have no evidence thats happening here, in fact we are all essentially agreeing items are wrighted and logic would tell you million dollar studios don't leave control of their game to pure randomness.. Not to mention guns like ghorn or icebreaker may have been removed from the loot table entirely.. Who knows?
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Xur is RnG rhythm n gangsta he raps to your cries
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39 RespuestasXur is rmg brother, sorry.
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Part 3, that's exactly right. It's very possible and it can happen. 50/50 each time, but just like you I'd call shenanigans and try to throw in my two cents.
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Also I don't remember exactly but xur followed a pattern at some point selling a primary then a special then a heavy then back to primary... And that stuff for 7 (? I don't remember ) weeks in a row and then broke the pattern. But I don't think it can be just random. About the new sniper dlc, I got it twice, two days before xur with 2 different characters during the raid and a friend got it during the nightfall just before our raid. And never seen that weapon before that. So I would say they play with weight on exotics weapons to make things less random but still.
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4 RespuestasWho cares?
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I can't believe he still hasn't gotten through all of the original exotics. I want Thunderlord! I'd take Dragon's Breath too I guess....
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2 RespuestasIt is random
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3 Respuestas"If you don't agree with me you're dumb!" That's you. Leave this land ignorant one
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Any and all Xur events are Mutually Exclusive, you can't rely on evidence of past probabilities to support your claims.
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4 RespuestasThe biggest failing of your argument is that everything you say is based on conjecture; which is exactly the same info everyone else has. They've never told us word for word how the loot system works. It seems that everything is based off of RNG in some sort of fashion. So, taking that into account, it only stands to reason that Xur's wares are also RNG. These constant threads with zero fact are such a waste of time. You're only purpose is to rile people up and try and justify your hatred at the system for not giving you X (where X is generally Ghorn or Icebreaker). Who cares? Does anyone actually think that any of these arguments are going to somehow change something? Every single post in ALL of these threads is based on hearsay. Until the day one of the developers or Deej comes out and says exactly what happens with the system, everything else is just dust in the wind.
