[quote]Of course, it is difficult to use data like these to assess the effect of changing the minimum wage on the unemployment rate. The reason is that there are important differences in a variety of characteristics across states that led some states to choose a higher minimum wage than others. Those differences could themselves have important effects on the unemployment rate that do not come from the minimum wage itself.[/quote] oh gee what a nice link

You do realize that's the whole point of my post and the article right? The minimum wage is irrelevant when it comes to unemployment, other factors are far more important.

The link you posted doesn't claim that the minimum wage is irrelevant when it comes to unemployment, it claims that you can't prove that there's a link between the minimum wage and unemployment based purely on the raw difference between states (which is true for two reasons, one of which is the empirical reality demonstrated by your graph, and the other is the reason why that graph doesn't prove that there's no link).

That's the same thing. Read it again, it clearly says the gradient is 0.002. At this point the weather could have a larger effect on unemployment than the minimum wage. When there is no statistically significant correlation between minimum wage and unemployment, the link fades away instantly.

How about you read the part I quoted?

Maybe you should actually try to understand what he is trying to say there instead of pulling the quote out of context?

I understand perfectly - any link between the minimum wage and unemployment cannot be deduced from simple static observation of data across states, but this does not mean that there is no link between unemployment and the minimum wage because of the large differences between the many of the states' economies.

Are you seriously this dense? Do you not understand what "statistically significant relationship" or lack thereof actually means? Of course there are differences between the states. That's the whole -blam!-ing point, the minimum wage is irrelevant. Unemployment in these states in the long term has not increased.

Do you not understand what "it is difficult to use data like these to assess the effect of changing the minimum wage on the unemployment rate" means? Those aren't my words, they're from whoever it is you're getting that graph from. And that doesn't make the minimum wage irrelevant, it mostly just means that, on the level of variation between the states' minimum wages, other factors, like, for example, the kind of industries present in that state, have a more significant effect, or perhaps that those states with higher minimum wages could largely be lacking industries that could be hurt by a minimum wage rise. A minimum wage increase could still have significant effects on the unemployment level of any individual state economy (or the entire country). It'd be much more reasonable to assess the change in unemployment in a state after an increase in the minimum wage is legislated - preferably with control states whose economies have a similar composition, and using many examples. I imagine that's closer to the way actual economists do it. I'm not an enemy here - I'd advocate an increase in the federal minimum wage in the U.S. - but I'm not going to promote that idea through intellectually dishonest means.

[quote] And that doesn't make the minimum wage irrelevant, it mostly just means that, on the level of variation between the states' minimum wages, other factors, like, for example, the kind of industries present in that state, have a more significant effect, or perhaps that those states with higher minimum wages could largely be lacking industries that could be hurt by a minimum wage rise. A minimum wage increase could still have significant effects on the unemployment level of any individual state economy (or the entire country). [/quote] That's the whole -blam!-ing point. The minimum wage is irrelevant compared to other factors. [quote] It'd be much more reasonable to assess the change in unemployment in a state after an increase in the minimum wage is legislated - preferably with control states whose economies have a similar composition, and using many examples. I imagine that's closer to the way actual economists do it. [/quote] Again, this is involving all 50 states on a long term level. The minimum wage varies between states by something like 30% in certain cases. Long term unemployment in these states has not increased, therefore the minimum wage has had a minimal effect compared to the other factors such as the economy. Ergo, statistically irrelevant. This "the states are different" argument does not apply in this case because we aren't analyzing why unemployment is at X percent compared to state Y whose unemployment is at Z percent. We are simply looking at the scatter plot data and pointing out that there is no significant, long term relationship between the minimum wage and unemployment. There are very few examples of "control" states, because economics is very complicated and there are 100s of factors to take into account. You won't find any meaningful comparison otherwise. Please do try to find a "good" comparison in your example.

[quote]That's the whole -blam!-ing point. The minimum wage is irrelevant compared to other factors. [/quote] Less significant than - not necessarily irrelevant. In any case, even if the minimum wage has an effect that's a tenth the level of the maximum effects of structural economic differences, that's still a cost that you have to associate with a minimum wage increase when you're asking whether or not it's worth it. [quote]Again, this is involving all 50 states on a long term level. The minimum wage varies between states by something like 30% in certain cases. Long term unemployment in these states has not increased,[/quote] The graph you provided didn't show changes in state unemployment over time, only a static shot of the December 2012 numbers. [quote]therefore the minimum wage has had a minimal effect compared to the other factors such as the economy. Ergo, statistically irrelevant. This "the states are different" argument does not apply in this case because we aren't analyzing why unemployment is at X percent compared to state Y whose unemployment is at Z percent. We are simply looking at the scatter plot data and pointing out that there is no significant, long term relationship between the minimum wage and unemployment. [/quote] [i]Compared to other factors like the economy[/i]. As I said above, that still doesn't mean that the minimum wage cannot have a negative effect on employment. Saying it's negligible compared to other economic factors doesn't really change anything - I don't think anybody's saying that a ten percent minimum wage hike would increase unemployment by three percentage points or anything like that. [quote]There are very few examples of "control" states, because economics is very complicated and there are 100s of factors to take into account. You won't find any meaningful comparison otherwise. Please do try to find a "good" comparison in your example.[/quote] There are plenty of academic articles published on the effects of minimum wage increases that, as far as I'm aware, use far less rudimentary analytical techniques. anyway, if you still want to argue that this graph 'annihilates' all assertions of a causal link between a minimum wage and unemployment, I clearly can't stop you. Oh well.

It's not the seen non increases in unemployment, it's the unseen. The unseen is all the people who never get a job or enter the market because no new positions are created with the increases cost. They don't count as unemployed because they don't even get the chance to look for work when the minimum wage shuts them out.

A) i have my doubts about your source but ill accept it for the sake of argument B) im not entirely sure what it is you're saying (if you could word that better, thats be great) C) the data of your source only looks at the united states which has a very large economy, relatively low unemployment, and relatively low minimum wage (compared to europe and more socialised nations) D) while having a relatively low min. wage wont make a rather noticeable dent in unemployment (like severe regulation does), when you make minimum wage high enough to where it is practically punitive to the employer it will severely hurt employment E) its quite easy to understand why this is when you try to think like an employer instead of like an employee [spoiler]everybodys in it to make a profit, if someones hemorrhaging money the only rational thing to do is get rid of them. its not an issue of morality and its nothing personal, so why treat it like it is.[/spoiler]

1. Ok. 2. The 50 states compared. Some states have higher minimum wages than others, but no trend is observed. 3. That's irrelevant, since the comparison is between the states themselves. When you start going overseas you need to factor in various specialized minimum wage laws and the cost of living, as well as the state of the economy. This becomes a complex comparison and the point is lost. The main point is that there is no relationship between minimum wage and unemployment in the US, so people claiming that the minimum wage will affect unemployment are wrong. That's all it comes down to in the end, especially because the argument is centered around the US's minimum wage laws. Also, some European countries like Germany have strong unions. Germany only recently got the minimum wage because the unions ensured that worker pay was high. 4. Then it shouldn't be an issue when we are raising it. Nobody important is asking for an $18 dollar wage. Hell, $10 would be decent, and last time I checked Obama was asking for $9. 5. Yes, in terms of basic economics. However, there are two problems with this argument: A. Employer->Employee interactions are more complex than simple money terms. B. Large companies won't be affected as their profit margins/revenue vastly supersede their cost. IIRC there was an article that stated that if you doubled the minimum wage the average price of a burger in Mc Donalds would only rise 50c. Basically, what this means is that large businesses will be unaffected.

hmmm, potentially i am merely taking the point of view that by raising the minimum wage it could have unintended ramifications (as with other things) personally i feel it would be better to do away with the minimum wage and allow potential employees debate with potential employers what they feel is an adequate wage in exchange for their labor