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6/23/2020 8:37:22 PM
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For the millionth time, you constantly matching top players is a big mathematical improbability. 87% of the player base have a kd under 1.25. Most people you are matching are slightly below to slightly above average. Its really unfortunate that sbmm deludes people into thinking they are more skilled than they actually are due to them playing a fraction of the player population. Now that some players are no longer sheltered through sbmm they have to face reality and it makes them uncomfortable. They are finding that their perceived skill is not real and this gap between perception and reality is uncomfortable and the source of most of these posts.
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It has nothing to do with perceived skill and everything to do with enjoyment.....or is that a luxury that only skilled players should have?
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[quote]It has nothing to do with perceived skill and everything to do with enjoyment.....or is that a luxury that only skilled players should have?[/quote] It depends what you enjoy I suppose. I am assuming it has something to do with performance/ winning/doing well since we are having this conversation. If your enjoyment comes from any of the above, than it has to be earned and not given to you at the expense of others. If you are advocating for sbmm, than you should advocate for a ranked based system where people can move up/down the ranks and are rewarded based on performance. That's the only way this becomes fair for everyone. If your enjoyment is not tied to performance, well, go ahead and enjoy crucible I suppose as matchmaking will not change anything.
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I absolutely agree with your point that SBMM might delude players into thinking they are better than they are relative to all the player base, since they are only exposed to people around their skill level. However your point about running into top players being a "big mathematical improbability" is totally incorrect. In fact there is a very high probability (69%) that you will have at least someone in the top 10% in every game of 6v6. You will encounter top players in most of your games regardless of who you are. I'll show you how this is worked out. Take 1 random player. What is the probability that he is NOT in the top 10% of players ? 90% , aka 0.9 Alright Now take 2 random players. What is the probability that BOTH of them are NOT top 10%? 0.9 x 0.9 = 0.81 Now 3 players. 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 = (0.9)^3 = 0.73 4 players NOT in the top 10%? (0.9)^4 = 0.65 And so on. Now take a 6v6, all other 11 players except you are NOT in top 10%? (0.9)^11 = 0.31 The odds of none of those 11 people being in the top 10% of players is only 31% Conversely, the odds of finding someone in that top bracket is 100 - 31 = 69% . Most of your games (69%) WILL have a top bracket player... and you will get crushed by him
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[quote]In fact there is a very high probability (69%) that you will have.... Conversely, the odds of finding someone in that top bracket is 100 - 31 = 69% . Most of your games (69%) WILL have a top bracket player... and you will get crushed[/quote] Nice
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[quote]I absolutely agree with your point that SBMM might delude players into thinking they are better than they are relative to all the player base, since they are only exposed to people around their skill level. However your point about running into top players being a "big mathematical improbability" is totally incorrect. In fact there is a very high probability (69%) that you will have at least someone in the top 10% in every game of 6v6. You will encounter top players in most of your games regardless of who you are. I'll show you how this is worked out. Take 1 random player. What is the probability that he is NOT in the top 10% of players ? 90% , aka 0.9 Alright Now take 2 random players. What is the probability that BOTH of them are NOT top 10%? 0.9 x 0.9 = 0.81 Now 3 players. 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 = (0.9)^3 = 0.73 4 players NOT in the top 10%? (0.9)^4 = 0.65 And so on. Now take a 6v6, all other 11 players except you are NOT in top 10%? (0.9)^11 = 0.31 The odds of none of those 11 people being in the top 10% of players is only 31% Conversely, the odds of finding someone in that top bracket is 100 - 31 = 69% . Most of your games (69%) WILL have a top bracket player... and you will get crushed by him[/quote] The calculations are accurate, but I don't agree with the interpretation and magnitude. Firstly, a top 10% player is roughly a 1.3 kd player and it's hard to say whether they will crush you. Secondly, the 69% chance is that you will encounter such a player but there is a ~45% chance this player will be on your team so ~38% chance you face said player. And to reiterate, I don't believe a top 10% player will have the impact that you claim in an average lobby.
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Sure, the top player might not "crush" you but he will win more often than not, and carry his team more often than not. Hold on, where are you getting the 45 and 38? I think those are incorrect as well. Even just on principle lol. there's more slots available in the enemy team so the odds of the good player being in the enemy team must be greater. The top 10 guy being in the enemy team is 1-0.9^6 = 46.8% Him being on your team is 1-0.9^5 = 40.1% So assuming you are not in the top 10% yourself, 2 things are true: 1. Very often there will be top tier players in your game 2. That player will more often be on the other team than on yours (6 open slots in enemy team, 5 on yours). How about a top 5% player? Those will be in 43% of your games. Almost half. How about a top 2%? Those are truly skilled. The skill gap between a top 10% and a top 2% is enormous. You'll find one of those in 21% of your games, one of every 5
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[quote]Sure, the top player might not "crush" you but he will win more often than not, and carry his team more often than not. Hold on, where are you getting the 45 and 38? I think those are incorrect as well. Even just on principle lol. there's more slots available in the enemy team so the odds of the good player being in the enemy team must be greater. The top 10 guy being in the enemy team is 1-0.9^6 = 46.8% Him being on your team is 1-0.9^5 = 40.1% So assuming you are not in the top 10% yourself, 2 things are true: 1. Very often there will be top tier players in your game 2. That player will more often be on the other team than on yours (6 open slots in enemy team, 5 on yours). How about a top 5% player? Those will be in 43% of your games. Almost half. How about a top 2%? Those are truly skilled. The skill gap between a top 10% and a top 2% is enormous. You'll find one of those in 21% of your games, one of every 5[/quote] Close enough. I mentioned about (~) 45 and 38 because I did the calculations in my head. I think its more than fair to have to encounter a top 10% player in the enemy team every other game given that everyone is playing for the same stakes/rewards. Or encounter a top 5% player (approximately 1.4 kd) 1 in 4 games (26.5%). The alternative is actively punishing people for getting better at the game. If people want fair, they should advocate for a ranked playlist where people are placed in their respective ranks based on their initial performance and can move up or down based on their follow up performace. Rewards should also increase commensurate with rank and performance. This is fair and its how it works in any competition un the real world.
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Editado por Snake_sellors-1: 6/24/2020 6:06:44 AMYou're forgetting that for 50% of the the players it doesn't take a top tier player to ruin their game time. Because average skill levels would have to to be around the 50% bracket or are you just saying that below average or bad pvp players should be able to beat people a whole tier or two higher than their current skill level Or they should enjoy getting thrashed until they can? Im roughly average as a PvP player, unfortunately or me I like warlocks and bows. Joy of joys. 🤦 Still I guess that's what other games are for
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I found an article that may interest you on bows https://www.reddit.com/r/DestinyTheGame/comments/hezg8e/an_indepth_guide_to_using_a_bow_in_competitive/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
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[quote]You're forgetting that for 50% of the the players it doesn't take a top tier player to ruin their game time. Because average skill levels would have to to be around the 50% bracket or are you just saying that below average or bad pvp players should be able to beat people a whole tier or two higher than their current skill level Or they should enjoy getting thrashed until they can? Im roughly average as a PvP player, unfortunately or me I like warlocks and bows. Joy of joys. 🤦 Still I guess that's what other games are for[/quote] How exactly do we measure what can or can't ruin someone's game? I can throw numbers around too and say that a 30 ms increase in ping can ruin an above average players game. Is it true? I don't know. A lot of the players complaining that I have checked have the same performance between sbmm and cbmm, some even better. Should we cater to these players perceptions? You mention that you want to play with bows. That's great, you can main bows if it makes you happy. Are they meta? No, but they are deadly if you become skilled with them just as most other weapons. I have played some incredibly deadly players that mained bows in the early seasons of comp.
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I can agree I rarely find players close to my skill
