[spoiler]side note: thanks to JacktheCatdog for making his/her post on this topic as well because this post is pretty much just a repeat/comment to his/hers, but way too long to be a comment. [/spoiler] [spoiler]also i apologize for any spelling errors because i am making this from a mobile device and i'm not the best when it comes to grammer[/spoiler] 1 The problem is and was always our blue friend Vuvzela. Don't get me wrong, he is an amazing soldier and a pretty darn good leader, but he is crap for brains when it comes to politics. He has shown great military leadership and tactics because taking back the City was an almost insurmountable task, but he managed to get it done. 2 [i]However[/i], his first major display of political crapness was when the Speaker died and was not replaced. 3 Something you have to understand about the Speaker is, while he was pretty much useless to us as a Guardian and a player, he was the greatest asset to the people of the City as its leader. There is probably so much stuff that is not include in the lore that he did, just because of the nature of his job. He was the desicive vote in the Consensus because he never aligned with the Factions nor the Vanguard. 4 The way the Consensus is structured, there are 7 seats, three of them are the Vanguard, three of them are the leading faction leaders, and the other one is the Speaker. The Speaker was considered leader and the most important because he was neither civilian nor military. The Consensus is a good oligarchal system, with an accurate representation of the civilian population working with the military to have equal power and a seperate body to make a desicion, should the civilian and military leaders go into gridlock. 5 The Factions have to fight themselves and the Consensus in order to push their own agendas, so they will never gain enough power to take over the government, but they can band together to prevent a power hungry Vanguard from becoming oppressive. In the middle of this all, you have the Speaker, who is balancing the Factions and the Miltary, the people and the Guardians, all on his own shoulders, making for a very balanced and well put together government. 6 In d2, Zavala never instated a Speaker. He should have taken up the Speaker's mantle himself, or appointed somebody else as the Speaker. However, he didn't. By taking away this decisive vote, he greatly hurts the ability for the Consensus to make desicions. Every time military and civillian agendas collide, the conflict is never resolved because there is no tie breaker vote. He does not understand that a government must have all of its roles filled, even if some of the positions are temporary. 7 If any of you Americans that remember your high school civics lesson, then you would know the story of when Ronald Reagan got shot. When he was shot, the Vice President was in an airplane, and, at the time, he was at too high of an altitude to communicate with. So, all of the federal department heads went into a closet to figure out who was the next President. The moral of the story is, the government has to go on, no matter what. 8 In Destiny, the City went without a "President" for an entire [i]year[/i]. For an entire year there was no tie breaker vote, and that crippled the City. Slowly, the Consensus would have collapsed, leaving a vacuum of power in the City. However, when Cayde died, it sped up the downfall of the Consensus. Cayde was the glue that held Ikora and Zavala together, but when he died, their differences in opinion caused the Vanguard to become an endless pit of argument. 9 If you try to make a model house out of toothpicks using no glue or tape, i can almost guarantee it will fall. If by some miracle you manage to keep it standing, somebody could simply walk by and tap it with their pinkie finger, and it would fall. You woukd have to be an engineering genius to get a construction like that to be stable, and Zavala is far, far from a political genius. 10 Now, the Consensus is 5 seats, no HV, no Speaker. This means that all the power is invested into the factions, but before i dive into that, there are some details about faction rallies that are worth stating before Forsaken happens. 11 Faction rallies are a power game. They know that Guardians are dancing morons that only care about loot. So, for a week, they offer these Guardians extra loot if they bring in supplies for the faction. The people see their favorite Crucible champions pledging alliegance to *insert faction choice here* and then the buy that faction's stuff. This means that the factions not only have powerful Guardians at their bidding for an entire week, but they also have more people buying their stuff, raking in profit and resources. This means they have more power, so they can further their agenda, so they can get ahead and have more of a say in the Consensus, so that they just might be able to overrule the Vanguard. 12 If the Speaker were alive for d2 y1, faction rallies would have [i]never[/i] been allowed. I wouldn't be surprised if the Speaker specifically banned the factions from trying to take so much power. However, the seats in d2 y1 were equal, and Zavala was too dumb to see that this is a power play, and that the factions were getting everything and the Vanguard nothing. You see, unlike Zavala, who was picked by Saint-14 because he was good at shooting bad guys, the Faction leaders had to climb their way to the top. Faction leaders understand the political game, and, without a Speaker, they are having a field day manipulating Zavala. 13 In Forsaken we don't have Faction Rallies because there is no reason for them. When Cayde dies, the Factions actually get the majority vote, so if they could pull their heads out of their own agendas and work together, they could essentially nullify the Vanguard with votes. Not only this, but they have supplies and money they need for the previous faction rallies. It is my belief that the sole reason as to why the Factions have not simply taken over is a fear of Faction Wars part 2. They know that if they take over, the other 2 factions will rise up to fight against them, and things might get bloody, not to mention the many, many threats that are outside of the City. For however much crap the Vanguard are at this point, they are still holding it together somewhat. 14 Through all this, you also have more moving parts, such as the Praxic Order and the Drifter. 15 As I understand it, the praxic order is like a sub orginization under the Vanguard, but they operate independently of the Vanguard, so they have their own agendas. They see the failing Vanguard, so they start doing illegal stuff because who's gonna stop them? They are already pretty powerful and the Vanguard can barely keep the blazing City going, so why not? Its free power. 16 And then you have the Drifter. It cannot be a coincidence that when Cayde-6 dies, the Drifter sets up shop. Drifter is smart, he sees the failing Vanguard, and, almost as a cocky slap in the face to Ikora, sets up within her sightline. Also, he was waiting for this chance becaue there is no introducing questline, no cute little cutscene, nothing that really introduced Gambit. The Drifter appears out of nowhere, almost to the moment when Cayde dies. How he knew when Cayde was going to die is a discussion for another day, but he struck at the perfect time to start doing illegal activity. Same as the Praxic Order, the Vanguard is not going to stop the Drfiter, especially because the Drifter has some sweet loot. Because, which is more important, your god-roll trust, or a crappy Vanguard that is losing control? 17 I know this is a lot of information to throw at a reader in one post, but i think i might have just about covered all the things that make Zavala an awful politician. The next part is about what happens next. Scenario 1. The Vanguard dissolves, leaving a power vacuum in the City and a responsible council convenes to create a new governement, kind of like JacktheCatdog's example of the Articles of Confederation. Likely Scenario 2. The Vanguard dissolves, leaving anarchy and thus, Gary laughs at us in his grave as the City burns down. Again, from JackheCatdog's post. Unlikely Scenario 3. The praxic order just takes over as the new Vanguard, they appoint a new Speaker if they have learned anything, and the Consensus is revitalized. Very Unlikely Scenario 4. The Drifter takes his portion of the Guardians that pledged alliegance to him and finds a home for all these Guardians, splitting off from the City and watching it fall again. Unlikely- depends on what the Drifter's plan is Scenario 5. The Factions take over, subsequently starting faction wars 2. Very Unlikely Scenario 6. The Factions take over, but are too afraid of war to have the strength to hold the City together. Each of them takes their people and completes their agendas. (Dead Orbit leaves and tries to colonize a new system, New Monarchy takes over the ruins of the City, and Future War Cult probably creates a big bunker filled with weapons and survival stuff) Likely Scenario 7. The Vanguard tries to keep a hold of itself until the Darkness comes in and "turns the City into a crater" - Archival Mind Very likely That is all i could come up with for now, but i might go in an edit this post if i think of anything else. I know this was a bit of a read, but i hope you enjoyed and/or got something out of my analysis of Zavala and his bad politics. Thank you for your time.