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7/29/2018 2:00:20 AM
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Why do people think this is a bug? It's just RNG dude. There's a 50/50 chance of getting the taken blight event. The other 50% is for getting the cabal excavation. If you're having bad luck then I'm sorry, but please call it what it actually is so they can properly fix the problem.
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lets look at probability. In the area there can be 2 events one or the other not both at the same time. So 50/50. So whats the probability of 1 or the other 20 times in row? Rounded in Bungies favor 1/1,000,000 So lets say on average per hour 4 events spawn. Which equals 96 events a day. That event should happen then once every 10,400 days or every 28.5 years! So to see that 2 times in the 5 days this event has been open seems deliberate not RNG.
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You're right, I hope someone prominent like a youtuber calls bungie out on this with the actual maths for having the gall to say it's rng. It just adds to how infuriating the issue is and now we have people getting empowered into believing it by the offical response from bungie.
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You forgot one thing. According to destinytracker.com, there were around 800k PvE players yesterday. That's 0.8 million. Every day there's most likely going to be 1 guy who gets that luck. That one guy is bound to come on here to complain about it because it seems ridiculous. So really, this isn't that unlikely at all.
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Those events are global public events and have nothing to do with how many are logged in. In fact the same code triggers for PC, Xbox and PS. You can fast travel back to same areas, it's still the same event. There has been public timers for destiny for 4 years. Telling you when an event would occur in the area, they couldn't tell you what, because it ran through their code. Those events are not different for anybody. They are same. When last Sunday I was waiting 8 hours for a Blight event, I was watching 2 other streamers at the time on different platforms getting the same cabal events in a row. There chats were blowing up with Cabal again? Sorry your understanding of how those events work is not correct.
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Huh. Didn't know that. One thing you still need to account for however is the player bias. Not many people are talking about when it DOES work 50/50 because they aren't even thinking about it. The only times you ever hear about it is when something ridiculous happens, and since there are 24 hours in a day that's somewhat likely.
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You are a idiot. Cabal happened 28 times in a row earlier today. Also there are 2 taken events 1 cabal. So a 67% chance of taken. It was very broken.
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It could still be a bug affecting the rng of the public event. I think my friends said it was the cabal one for 15 straight runs again earlier.
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Bungie has made it clear that it's not bugged. Just because someone got 15 in a row doesn't mean it's broken. That's the annoying thing about RNG. It's not predictable at all. Technically someone could never get the taken blight event. The chances of it are very slim, but it's still possible, and it wouldn't be Bungie's fault at all. That's just how luck works. You can't blame anyone for it as long as it's not broken.
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The events are the same for everyone. I get Cabal, you get Cabal, Datto gets Cabal. Work the odds out for 26 of the same in a row. That’s assuming 50/50 chance, there’s 3 different locations the taken PE can spawn in........
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Think about it though. Every day there's a public event every 15 minutes. That's 4 per hour. Since there are 24 hours in a day, there are about 100 public events per day in each area. There are an average of 3 areas per planet, and since there are 6 planets that means that there are 1800 public events every day. Out of those 1800 public events, there's bound to be at least one set that's 20 in a row. If you flip a coin that many times you would get the same thing. There would be at least one instance where it flips 20 heads in a row. You always hear about these ridiculous stories because it's bound to happen every once in a while. You never hear about the times when it works normally because nobody talks about that and nobody ever even thinks about it when it happens. The problem is that people aren't getting the scale. They're pulling one set of public events out of the matrix and talking about it as if it's the only one. That's the flaw that people are making.
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Even if you flip a coin 1800 times, the odds of getting a streak of 20 heads in a row are still just over 1 in a million. Put it another way, get 1 million people to flip a coin 20 times, and you would expect 1 person to get 20 heads. Although I quite agree player bias plays some part in this, 20 taken in a row would not generate any complaints at all, despite being just as unlikely.
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So you believe everything Bungie says? We all know they’ve lied before just saying.
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Why would they lie about this? If it's a bug they would just say it's a bug. The only things they've lied about have been involved with microtransactions.
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They'd lie to cover up the fact that they've screwed the pooch with this while they work on a fix without losing face in the meantime. They expect the community is dumb enough to fall for it instead of running the numbers, they might be right going from some of these posts. Bungie has lied in the past over many things, I still remember the sbmm lies back in D1. Bungie isn't a reliable source of information
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How do you screw up probability? That's an easy thing to code. If it's more likely to get the cabal excavation event then that means it's done intentionally, and they would most likely just say that and then fix it.
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Yeah, though bungie likes to claim a lot of things. I take what they say with a grain of salt.
