Except Bungie has stated their version of SBMM aims to make the likelihood of winning a game to be 50% so players win around as often as they lose. Granted it wont truly be 50/50 but its as close as it can be and eithout having the true numbers we can only go by what bungie said their goal was. So yes applying the probability of a coin flip is correct. If the goal of SBMM is to have a 50/50 chance of winning or losing a game and the goal of trials is to go flawless meaning you need 7 wins in a row then its the exact same as flipping a fair coin 7 times and trying to get all heads. As i stated the chance isnt going to be exact as with trials you do get loses (2 on a mercy until you go flawless that week) which obviously will change the probability slightly but its still going to be lower than a 1% chance and given theres an emblem that requires 7 wins in row where you cant have the oposing teams ever have more points (meaning you have to win the first round 7 times in a row which has the same likelihood as wining 7 games in a row it makes the emblem basically impossible for anyone new to ever get it) You cant disagree without admitting youre wrong because while it isnt directly a coint flip bungie wants SBMM to give a match the same probability of outcome as a coin flip.