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originally posted in:Sapphire
2/1/2013 12:20:03 PM
2
Syria is by no means vitally important to either Russia or China. Syria maintains a relatively small naval base officially owned by Russia, which it can sail its unfortunately small Mediterranean-bound fleets to. Syria is also a major importer of Russian armaments. So is half the world. [i]Civilian sales of AK-type weapons in the US[/i] make up nearly [i]a third[/i] of sales from the Izhmash factory where they're made. Russia can very much do without Syria, and I am wholly confident they will not bother intervening in any form of Israeli-Syrian conflict. Except maybe funds and munitions, exactly what China would do for Iran if Iran decided to attack Israel as well. And get stomped of course. This is the country that couldn't defeat a weakened, gassed-to-buggery Iraqi Army, despite owning a country oodles of times larger than Iraq and by sending vast numbers of their soldiers (mostly boys, apparently) to wander across the battlefield to demoralise the Iraqi machine gunners. It worked (if not strategically or even operationally), but it's demonstrably pathetic tactics.
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  • The First Gulf War was a lot closer then that. All of the chemical weapons used in that war were Iraqi, as Iran didn't have any capacity to produce or use them in warfare. The Iranians managed to completely repel the Iraqi invasion, and the only reason it wasn't closer is because the Iraqis had the backing of everyone that hated Iran and the Iranians had two command structures that competed for resources, fought over battle plans, didn't coordinate, and occasionally engaged attacked each other at the large unit level.

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  • Syria is Russia's foothold in the Middle East. Without them, they lose the entire region to western interest. China couldn't care less about Syria, but they care about Iran (their oil), and Iran's only ally is Syria. Whether both superpowers would fight alongside Iran and Syria, is left unknown. However, they'd surely supply both nations, as they do both do now.

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