I thought it’s just based on wins no ?

My understanding is you can get it on any win past 10k but your chances increase as you rank up. It's based on an insivible "points" system where the emblem is guaranteed to drop at 1000 points. Points are awarded as follows: 1 point per win between 10 and 11k 2 between 11 and 12 3 between 12 and 13 5 between 13 and 14 10 between 14 and 15 and 100 per win AT 15k (as in games you enter at 15k and win) Thus, you are worst case scenario absolutely guaranteed the emblem after 10 wins AT 15k. To my knowledge most people myself included can expect to get it after 2 or 3 wins at 15k, but you have a better chance as you accumulate more points. I would hypothesize that it is a percentage chance based on the percent progress you are at towards 1000 points; for example with 1 point you have a 0.1% chance on a given win, with 47 points you have a 4.7% chance, etc. Assuming this is true and you have to win 15 times to make a 1000 point gain, you have a 1.5% chance to get it at 11k, 4.5% at 12k, 9% at 13k, 16.5% at 14k, and 31.5% once you have reached 15k increasing 10% per win after that. That makes sense to me and I think it reflects the drop rates people are experiencing. I could be completely wrong