I know a lot of people are celebrating Thorn's incoming nerf. That's fine. I'm all for weapon balance and mixing things up, and think 2.0 is going to bring some variety to the Crucible. But, I've been crunching some numbers, and well, Thorn will probably still be a force to be reckoned with, maintaining its ability to 2 shot lower armor builds.
It's time for some math! But first, [url=https://m.reddit.com/r/DestinyTheGame/comments/3c0xwi/indepth_analysis_health_shield_armor_increased/]Armor! How does it work?[/url]
Are you back yet? Good, let's continue.
Ok, so Thorn with Agressive Ballistics does 84 damage a head shot, so 2 head shots = 168 damage.
They are reducing Thorn's DoT to 1/3rd, let's assume they are rounding 7 down to 2. However, they are allowing this DoT to stack. Presumably, stacking refreshes the DoT (this is speculative, but stands to reason). So, two head shots occur for 168 damage. After the first head shot, the DoT starts ticking, the first tick does 2 damage. Then, the next head shot refreshes the DoT, which now does 4 x 6, or 24 damage. So, 168 + 2 + 24 = 194 which is enough to kill just about anyone not running high armor.
But what about body shots? Not the fun/sleazy kind!
Thorn w/ Agressive Ballistics does 56 damage, so 56 x 3 = 168. Applying the same principles as before, 168 + 2 (first DoT tic) + 4 (DoT tic after the first stack) + [6 (DoT stacked 3 times) x 6 = 36] = 210 damage, which will kill anyone but a Ram user.
Even if I'm wrong about the DoT refreshing whenever stacked, and I don't think I am, Thorn would still 2 shot low armor builds by doing 190 damage (168 + 2 + 20) and 3 shot at 198 (168 + 2 + 4 + 24).
Think my math is off? Anything unclear? Lemme know!
Edit: basic rule of thumb would be, can your PvP build survive a Hunter's trip mine? If yes, you'll live through 2 Thorn head shots. If no, Press X to Respawn.
Edit 2: The more I think about it, the more convinced I am that stacking the DoT must cause the DoT to refresh. Why?
[quote]*Reduce base damage of Thorn’s Mark of the Devourer DoT (Damage over Time) to roughly 1/3 of what it was in PVP and PVE
*Allow DoT to stack up to 5x across multiple landed projectiles
*This is a net buff for Thorn’s DoT, but reduces the lethality of the weapon in PVP[/quote]
The only way this is a [b]net buff[/b] in PvE is if the DoT refreshes the DoT while stacking.
Example 1 - DoT stacks/refreshes: 2 + 4 + 6 + 8 + (10 x 6) = 80
Example 2 - DoT stacks, but doesn't refresh: 2 + 4 + 6 + 8 + (10 x 2) = 40
Example 3 - Baseline, DoT behaves exactly as it does now: 7 x 6 = 42
Edit 3: and what happens if two people using Thorn shoot the same target? Do those burns stack? You think a Trials team of Thorn wielders is bad now, if they can stack the burns, Thorn's lower attack power won't even matter if you're getting team shot.
Edit 4: Holy crap, dudes/lady-dudes. I didn't forget about the damage falloff.
1) obviously, this example reflects ideal conditions.
2) Bungie indicated that hand cannons should remain effective into medium range, where the majority of fights will be occurring. This, to me, leads me to believe you won't see a damage falloff until you're outside of medium range.
3) Thorn still has Send It. Even a nerfed version of Send It is still the best range enhancing perk in the game (that we know of), which means Thorn is still the hand cannon with the best range (that we know of).
There, hopefully now I don't have to keep repeating myself.
Edit the 5th: sorry about all the edits. At least it's not about the number of replies, amiright?!
Anyways, a few people have suggested that maybe when Bungie says that the DoT stacks, they really just mean overlap. In that case, 2 headshots would look something like this:
2 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 +4 + 2 = 24, or 192 total damage, which is still enough to kill some low armor builds. In some ways, this makes Thorn more annoying, because if you've survived, you're burning for a longer period of time, which is preventing your shields from recovering while showing your enemy where you are.
3 body shots (again, not the kind in Cancun) would look like:
2 + 4 + 6 + 6 + 6 + 6 + 6 + 6 +4+ 2 = 36, or 204 total, which still kills anyone but a Ram user.
This is still a net buff in PvE, and is actually an INSANE PvE buff (if you feel like using an exotic primary). Your target would literally never stop burning because you just keep reapplying the DoT, and would likely keep burning at maximum strength in between reloads.
Either way, Thorn would maintain 2 shot capability on some armor builds, which opens up player choice for victims. Don't like getting insta doomed? Spec for armor.
We'll find out who's right next Tuesday. The hype is real. Thanks for reading and participating in a (mostly) civil discussion.
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#Destiny
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1 ReplyYou.must not have read the edge magazine article on thorn....thorn will be taken,turned into a brick and then you must throw it at tour enemies to try to kill them. Read edge magazine.Thorn will not longer be thorn.it will be hit hard
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Who in the world would not run high armor in this next update lol...
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2 RepliesEdited by TheANSER-42: 9/3/2015 1:22:27 PMHawk moon just plain 2 shots. It is possible to survive the dot by popping a titan bubble or fist of havoc. Blade dance might work. Radiant skin radiance works. BTW. This will save you AFTER thorn has hit you twice in the head
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But but i run low armore builds -.-
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3 RepliesEdited by Hagalaz-27: 9/3/2015 10:36:12 PMRegarding the new DoT thing, the way it's worded makes me think it's going to stack like this: Let's say our intrepid guardian takes his sweet time, shooting at a redbar (we all know that lag makes redbars seem invincible until the damage suddenly catches up all at once (say, seven seconds in) He fires six body shots at one second intervals, with a burn tick every second, starting with each shot and continuing for five seconds (six total ticks). This is what you'd see during that six second window: Shot 1: (56 +2) +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 = 68 damage Shot 2: XX (56 +2) +2 +2 +2 +2 = 66 damage Shot 3: XX XX (56 +2) +2 +2 +2 = 64 damage Shot 4: XX XX XX (56 +2) +2 +2 = 62 damage Shot 5: XX XX XX XX (56 +2) +2 = 60 damage Shot 6: 56 (No burn because Shot 1 is still active) When simplified, the damage would roughly look like this, over a six-second window, adding up each shot plus the burn in the column for that tick: 58 + 60 + 62 + 64 + 66 + 68. This is all well and good, but for your average Crucible encounter at close range, our hero will be firing body shots at max rate, which is roughly 2.7 rounds per second if you spam the trigger, so if we're generous and round that up to 3 rounds per second: In the first second: Shot 1: (56 +2) = 58 Shot 2: (56 +2) = 58 Shot 3: (56 +2) = 58 For a total of 174, not quite enough to kill... In the second second: Shot 4: (56 +2) = 58 Burn 1: +2 Burn 2: +2 Burn 3: +2 For a total of 64, and a grand total of 238 damage, which kills in four shots in around 2 seconds, just like any other hand cannon. When simplified, you'd get this: 174 + 64 Now, what if our Thorny Guardian is a hand cannon artiste, and only attempts headshots. This time, I'm rounding down to 2 shots per second because he's actually using that extra fraction of a second to aim In the first second: Shot 1: (84 +2) = 86 Shot 2: (84 +2) = 86 For a total of 172, again, not enough to kill. In the second second: Shot 3: (84 +2) = 86 Burn 1: +2 Burn 2: +2 For a total of 90, which, for a grand total of 262, definitely kills the target in three shots in two seconds, just like any other hand cannon. When simplified, it looks like this: 172 + 90. Now, let's assume our Guardian is a scrublord, and tries the Two Shots and Walk Away meta: In the first second: Shot 1: (84 +2) = 86 Shot 2: (84 +2) = 86 For a total of 172, again, not enough to kill. For the subsequent seconds, each shot ticks 2 damage per second five more times, so: 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 For a grand total of 192, which MAY OR MAY NOT kill the target, depending on Armor. But this takes six seconds, why not just fire the third shot and take the kill? Sorry for the long post.
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5 RepliesIt'll be either a 3 shot or 4 shot, it wouldn't matter how much the dot will stack because you'll be dead from the actual bullet before you get 5 stacks.
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1 ReplyIts DoT effect is 1/3 of what it is now, so it couldn't 2 shot unless you have it on final round.
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3 RepliesGood maths but your reasoning for the DoT refreshing is flawed, your missing one other possibility which is the DoT stacks by overlapping with each round of poison wearing off in the order it was added
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The way I see it, it is going to tear up supers. With that stack, it's going to do massive amounts of damage.
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All the people think it'll suck because it'll still be good.
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5 RepliesYou Said that it refreshes the burn but instead of the burn starting over it just applies extra damage? Explain?
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Two shooting me up close is no worse than a shot gun or TLW. It's the outrageous range that makes this weapon so lethal. A nerf to optics and snapshoting will help ease this more than people think.
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3 RepliesAlso, you didn't take into account they are nerfing hand cannons base damage.. So it won't be 168... So it won't be a 2/3 shot..
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1 ReplyAren't they reducing the base damage AND it's effective range?
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I dont care about that, i care about range, ive been sniping on pantheon, and getting killed by a thorn from across the map
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1 ReplyToo long, didn't read.
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1 ReplyIt should be a force to be reckoned with, but the poison reduction and the range nerf puts it more in balance with other guns. It should never be nerfed into the ground. Tnx for the numbers though
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2 RepliesIt will 3 shot body shot I have sources Believe me or not, doesn't matter
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The nerf concept is really to stop it from happening at scout rifle range, HCs will still kill super quick
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5 RepliesThe DoT isn't 6x, only 4x
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This is the same math I came up with, but after discussing it with friends, we determined that stacking most likely does not mean refreshing
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6 RepliesI don't know if anyone has told you since you posted this but tripleWRECK confirmed that Thorn no longer 2 shots
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Yes if you switch it out and back with another cannon to get the last round first.. Of course it will 2shot
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Damage drop off
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2 RepliesYeah but it's being left as a year one gun, meaning it'll have no use in Trials/IB post TTK, that's enough for me.
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3 RepliesEh. Red death and Hawkmoon, maybe even necro will outclass thorn by then.