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3/8/2017 8:33:02 PM
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How will America compensate for our automated future?
I love this article from The New Yorker:
[quote]Imagine a matrix with two axes, manual versus cognitive and routine versus nonroutine. Jobs can then be arranged into four boxes: manual routine, manual nonroutine, and so on. (Two of Brynjolfsson and McAfee’s colleagues at M.I.T., Daron Acemoglu and David Autor, performed a formal version of this analysis in 2010.) Jobs on an assembly line fall into the manual-routine box, jobs in home health care into the manual-nonroutine box. Keeping track of inventory is in the cognitive-routine box; dreaming up an ad campaign is cognitive nonroutine.
The highest-paid jobs are clustered in the last box; managing a hedge fund, litigating a bankruptcy, and producing a TV show are all cognitive and nonroutine. Manual, nonroutine jobs, meanwhile, tend to be among the lowest paid—emptying bedpans, bussing tables, cleaning hotel rooms (and folding towels). Routine jobs on the factory floor or in payroll or accounting departments tend to fall in between. And it’s these middle-class jobs that robots have the easiest time laying their grippers on.[/quote]
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/12/19/our-automated-future
The automated future is guaranteed, and certain jobs and industries are more susceptible to automation than others. Some of the jobs and industries that employ most Americans will be the first to fall to automation, and we'll see massive amounts of unemployment as those people are now without work.
How will we, as a country, compensate for these millions of Americans now without work?
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28 RepliesEdited by The Cellar Door: 3/8/2017 9:36:49 PMThe truth is ugly to most. The realm of automation is coming very fast, regardless of what we do today in terms of wages. The fact of the matter is that the only way a modern society can function with automated jobs, is if that society creates a sufficient, basic standard of living which is provided to every member of its population. Housing, food, energy, education, and healthcare. For those who don't see why, instead of asking how will the economy grow given these conditions, ask yourself, [i]when[/i] will the economy fail without them? An economy in which the majority of its jobs can be carried out by a minority of its population is not perpetually sustainable.
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Made this exact thread like 2 months ago, I should leave STEM and go into journalism
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I think ppl are over complicating everything. We become "experts" and talk with a big dick now. Everyone is right about everything. We might be becoming more technological and bettering the world in many ways, but while we do this, we are destroying the world in so many other ways that are more impactful. In America, ya we might have a high standard of living. But we also primarily focus on image instead of substance. Everyday I just see shit that makes me not want to be here anymore. The catch me outside girl, Kim kardasian... and it's not getting better, it's getting much worse. The enviroment? Our government won't switch over to better environmental alternatives because of money... solar power, hemp for renewable fuels. Our media lies everyday, yet for some reason "fake news" is suddenly some conspiracy theory. I just have to watch 2 different news shows, to see 1 of them has to be lying. Ppl can't understand that no matter your skin color, race, culture, gender, sexual orientation, political affiliation... none of this actually makes you, you. That describes your lifestyle, not you. So there are racists in all catagories, and feminists in all catagoriez, and assholes and bitches and saints in all those catagories. Everything has become about money and sex. That is our society. And I just don't get it. If you just want to have money and sex, be a prostitute. But I see every aspect of life in decline right now honestly. Greed will destroy this world. And being jelly, is just the worst excuse to use for it. If you see something wrong haooening, and you say, that's wrong, it's not always jealousy. Take the Catch me outside girl. She is a little brat, who deserves to be locked up till she learns her actions have consequences. But she is now rich, for being a dumb selfish brat. Am I jealous because I think this is wrong? I'm jealous of her money. But this is really what I feel in this regard... I don't think I'm special, even though sometimes I try to tell myself I am to survive in this society. I belive there are otherside who deserve what I have much more than me, and it's hard to sleep some nights knowing this. I don't play the lotto, not just because it's a waste of money, but because I think someone else deserves thay reward more than I do. I like to believe in karma. And as kids we watched, the bad guy, or the guy who used short cuts, always got what was coming to him. This taught us to be the good guy, and it would all work out. We'll now you see someone like kanye, or Kim k, or Catch me outside, have enough money to never work again, and do whatever the hell they want. And they got there mostly by being bad ppl. Yes Kanye is actually talented, I know, but he's still a bad person. Trump... is literally just a product of our corporate run society. And these ppl I see walk away with everything they want. This makes me feel like I'm worse than them, even though I know I'm not. I'm still waiting for that part of the movie where the bad guys get what's coming to them. The sad part, I know it never comes. But we still wait.
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3 RepliesAll automated jobs = no money for workers No money for workers = no consumers No consumers = no money for companies Nobody wins here
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2 RepliesJust like how free trade can take manufacturing jobs but unemployment doesn't increase. Because more efficiency creates new opportunities and expands markets. Sure some will lose their jobs but new jobs will be created as the market shifts. The simplest example is if you automate say fast food ordering you get a new job for coders and developers working to streamline and improve the system, you have manufacturing of the automated machines, you have maintenance for the machine, etc. Hypothetically this automation will simply do what China has already been doing to America and if you look at the numbers the US trade deficit with China has no correlation to the US unemployment rate or average wages.
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3 RepliesEdited by shell: 3/9/2017 8:53:57 PMI don't really get why people are complaining. If a machine can do the job, it's probably not a job that you actually want. On top of that, AI do not understand humans enough to manage marketing. I don't know why that was mentioned.
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1 ReplyThere are only two options, both of which conservatives will loathe. 1. Pass laws making it illegal to automate non hazardous jobs 2. Pass a universal basic income where the government provides a set amount of money to each citizen. Both are distasteful but what alternative is there when your economy collapses due to the fact that the majority of citizens are unemployed and cant get employed.
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People will have personal robots that go to work for them. Or just start buying stock in robotics companies.
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3 RepliesIt won't happen anytime soon. I work around robots and manufacturing machines. They break down on a daily basis.
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As technology advances, less children will be born. Normally it's the reverse. (Look at history)But because of things like video games and birth control, direct human interaction will become more limited, and when it does occur pregnancy will be a more controlled factor. How ever, that's just the long term. When the technology first hits, the economy will take a hit. But the new types of jobs will become available. Maintenance and repair being the biggest. Each new technology removes a market, but then adds ten more. This technology will remove ten, but then amplify one on such a large scale that robotics work will be as common as Walmart. All of your concerns towards this eventuality are well placed. But as the saying goes "life will find a way". Difficult times are always ahead, but if look behind, you'll see it's been that way since the beginning, and we've managed to make it this far.
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Typical economic sophism. From Frederic Bastiat - [quote]Which is preferable for man and for society, abundance or scarcity? "What!" people may exclaim. "How can there be any question about it? Has anyone ever suggested, or is it possible to maintain, that scarcity is the basis of man's well-being?" Yes, this has been suggested; yes, this has been maintained and is maintained every day, and I do not hesitate to say that the theory of scarcity is by far the most popular of all theories. It is the burden of conversations, newspaper articles, books, and political speeches; and, strange as it may seem, it is certain that political economy will not have a completed its task and performed its practical function until it has popularized and established as indisputable this very simple proposition: "Wealth consists in an abundance of commodities." Do we not hear it said every day: "Foreigners are going to flood us with their products"? Thus, people fear abundance. Has not M. de Saint-Cricq said: "There is overproduction"? Thus, he was afraid of abundance. Do not the workers wreck machines? Thus, they are afraid of overproduction, or—in other words—of abundance. Has not M. Bugeaud uttered these words: "Let bread be dear, and the farmer will be rich"? Now, bread can be dear only because it is scarce. Thus, M. Bugeaud was extolling scarcity.[/quote] Let's look at it this way. Excavators already eliminate the need for groups of laborers with shovels. Are we worse off for having excavators? Would we be more efficient or prosperous without them? Work is valuable (and thus earns a wage set by the market) because it does something that somebody cannot or will not do on their own. Work for the sake of work has no value. Stalin tried to ramp up productivity by funding massive public works projects, including a giant railroad that was never utilized to any real capacity. The sophism was that putting people to work and "creating jobs" would bring prosperity. This is untrue. Work and production must have value, and value is determined by supply and demand. Stalin's public works had no demand, so the supply had no value. Handicapping machines to keep people laboring doesn't add value. Letting the state create jobs for the sake of work doesn't add value.
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Again, came looking for memes, only got people trying to have a real conversation. Stop this.
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2 RepliesYou'll always need a fireman so I'm safe
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4 RepliesLet them take the blue collar jobs Everyone currently at a blue collar job to be reeducated in white collar work or armed forces.
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Or pay the emotionless robots Give the previous workers the money
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2 RepliesEducation needs to change. It has been about the same for a hundred plus years. You should learn things that help you for several career options you have interest for. Same with college and graduate professional school. Every one should be qualified for a meaningful paying job when they graduate over a level
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Meh, I'll be retired or dead before it's a concern for me. TAKE THAT, YOUNG PEOPLE!
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Even though we may not see eye to eye. I think this is an important issue that needs to be looked at.
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22 RepliesBullshit. One job lost to automation a new job is born. As we grow technologically we create more positions to fill this is how economics work. Horse and buggy died with the automobile but as one job got destroyed a new kind replaced it. Automobiles were once all hand built and until ford made the assembly line. That maybe created less jobs in that industry but it created a demand for roads because more people had cars because the assembly line made cars cheaper. This is natural and will not create more unemployment. Raise minimum wage or cost businesses more money to employ workers in any way that's what will decrease the demand for the worker and create more unemployment. Automation benifits society by cheaper goods just like invention makes older products cheaper it all has a cycle. Government shouldn't meddle with it in any way
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4 RepliesGet a job the requires more skill. Then we will have true competition for jobs in this country. May the best man/woman win. And all the poor stupid people will probably die or be in true poverty. Not the fake poverty that Americans claim to be in. Real legit poverty like people in Africa.
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Easy. We'll start by getting rid of you.
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2 RepliesProbably blaming it on Mexicans and Muslims. I mean, it already does that, but there's a Republican administration for the next four years.
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6 RepliesWe will definitely need exactly the same amount of coders as we currently have manual labourers, so all they need to do when they lose their current job is upskill. If they can't get a job afterwards it's just because they're lazy, there is literally nothing else that could possibly have an effect.
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SKYNET
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Strange thing to focus just on the US when this is a global issue.
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Easy. We move to the moon and create android waifus to do our bidding.
