Take these three situations: 1. People have all their desired loot. They play solely because they enjoy the game 2. People want certain loot. They also play because they enjoy the game but also because they want the elusive item(s) 3. People aren't bothered about loot They play when they can be bothered and have no compulsion to get loot. Bungie want to maximise peoples' playing hours, this is what they're heavily KPId on from Activision. People at 1. will drop to 2. when new DLC drops. They want to move people from 3. to 2. and keep them there (often why new raid players or casuals will drop coveted exotics/raid gear - this aims to give them the incentive, hoping that they'll enjoy the game more and put in more hours). This is likely the category where players play the most as there's a compulsion to play alongside enjoyment. The best way to do this; weight the RNG in Bungie's favour to maximise playing hours. They could make a fixed-weight-RNG system for all players across the game but the cons outweigh the pros. The most optimum way for Bungie to do this is to weight the RNG specific to each players' predicted desired loot. There are just too many instances of players not getting that [b]drop[/b] they want. Whether it be the Vex, Ghorn, Red Death, Hawkmoon or the final piece of Raid gear. Think of this; if a gambling house could rig the odds in Blackjack, they would and have - that's why legislation prevents that. They have a monetary gain in doing so. Bungie have the ability to rig the odds on our drops in their favour and their gain is monetary (KPIs by Activision). They can easily predict what everyone's most desired gear is through this very simple mechanism (NB. Odds provides are for example only. Too many people have been questioning legitimacy of my hypothesis because of that!): 1. BING! player has weight-RNGd an exotic. Let's work out what to drop... 2. what are the %s of weapon types that the player has equipped during gameplay? RL=60% AR=10% HC=10% Sniper=5% LMG= 5% Scout=5% FR = 2.5% Shotgun = 2.5% Okay, now we know what they have equipped most of the time. 3. What exotic weapons don't they have? Ghorn Truth Red Death Hawkmoon Mida 4. Out of all the people that have these guns, what is the average % of time that they have them equipped? Ghorn = 70% Truth = 5% Red Death= 15% Hawkmoon = 20% Mida = 5% 5. Okay. So we can see that he has RLs equipped most of the time and that Ghorn is the most popular exotic RL for those that have it. Therefore we can make the logical assumption that this is his most desired gun (as he doesn't seem a big HC player as he splits his primary time with ARs and so he probably doesn't want RD or Hawk) 6. Now we know this, we don't want him to get his most desired gun as that'll likely reduce playing-time (as we know from the gambler's theory of 'it's always the next one') so what we'll do is reduce his percentage of getting the Ghorn in this drop and increase that of RD or Hawkmoon. 7. Therefore the % on this drop are: Ghorn = 1%, RD = 10%, Hawkmoon = 10% and every other exotic at an equal percentage (including those he currently has - this is why when you get a gun, you may see it drop more frequently) 8. SPIN THE WHEEL!!!! 9. Outcome = not Ghorn *claps arise in Bungie HQ* "well done guys, he's gonna keep chasing this gun" They have the capabilities to create this algorithm (which I could knock out in excel in 30 mins if I had all the info - which they do) which assesses any individual player's most desired guns. This then reduces said gun's drop % at that drop. The frequency at which this would be refreshed is anyone's guess; every time you log on, daily, every Tuesday or with every patch. I really don't know. Facts: • Bungie are already tracking all our stats - seen in app and Destiny DB - so therefore they must come from some centralised Database at Bungie. • Implementing the results in to coding refreshes wouldn't take much processing power. • Results of doing this is advantageous to them over a pure or even fixed-weighted RNG system Why on Earth wouldn't they do that? Yes I'm being skeptical but from a solely business POV this makes perfect sense. If I'm wrong and it's not set-up like this; Bungie, Deej or whoever is listening - DM me, I'll sort this out fo'ya'll. Edit: Apologies for the massive edit. I originally wrote it this morning, I realised it wasn't articulated very well and also missed out key points that I had to answer a fair few times to people. Original post has been quoted somewhere in comments for those that want to search. Edit: When replying saying that I'm wrong, can you please tell me [b]why[/b] other than simply stating something like "it's RNG, everything that you're experiencing are the effects of random events". Yes I'm aware complete randomness can cause this - it can be used to describe a multitude of things.