{{
`${userDetail.user.displayName}${userDetail.user.cachedBungieGlobalDisplayNameCode ? `#${standardizeBungieGlobalCode(userDetail.user.cachedBungieGlobalDisplayNameCode)}` : ""}`}}
{{getUserClans()}}
11/14/2017 9:35:32 AM
253
Exotic repeat odds defy logic
First I have the game on PS4 and PC, logging in about ten days played. On PC, I have opened around 35 Exotic engrams. Thirteen have been one item (the Prospector). That is 37%. The odds of this are so minute it isn't possible without a bug or it being engineered into game. RNG my A.S.S With a true RNG, there are roughly 25 items (guns and armor). That gives you a 4% chance to get an item. Since there is always 25 in the pool the 4% will never change. Say you want item x. Opening 20 engrams gives you a 55% chance of getting it.
30=70%
40=80%
50=87%
60=91%
70=94%
calculated by a 96% chance of not getting it. 0.96 to the power of x (x being how many engrams) minus 1 then times -100 ex: 20 engrams 0.96^20=0.442 0.442-1=-0.557 -0.557x-100=55.7% chance to get x item in 20 engrams
So getting 13 of the same item is almost impossible. LOL but it happened
As a side note:
I play the hunter and have farmed for the O rig legs on both platforms. Have done over 1,000 public events most heroic and have only gotten them once. Tracked PC events for the last 200. Only included heroic events and two fire team medallions running. There was a 6.5% drop rate of exotics. That is 13 in 200 events. While the sample size is small and I may have been very very unlucky it can give you an idea of how others are doing.
Good luck to all on the grind.
-
No one at Bungo ever said it was what a normal human definition of rng It's bungos definition of rng Some people after 3 years never got a gally drop a buddy faithfully ran vog for 2 years no fatebringer Bungo knows exactly how the drops work and they refuse to fix them And Think if they did have Norma l rng you would have been done by week 3 as there are so few exotics as it is And There is no real weapon differences the legendaries are about all the same
-
I don't play too much, so Exotics are few and far between for me, yet i have had Doom Fang Pauldron exotic gauntlets four times in a row. That probably accounts for 30-40% of my exotic engrams.
-
3 RepliesEdited by i_dont_give_adam: 11/15/2017 1:40:21 PMFor the last 4 weeks all I've needed were 305 arms for my warlock to get to 305, then all toons at 305 and I can finally stop playing this game. Each week: Flashpoint: 2 300 drops from cayde, no arms Crucible: 2 300 drops from shaxx, no arms Clan XP: 2 drops from bird woman, no arms Clan nightfall and crucible: 2 300 drops from zavala and shaxx, no arms. Can't do any other milestones because my 70+ member clan is dead. Wouldn't be bothered to anyway. So 4 (weeks) x 10 (300 drops) = 40 drops with no arms. RNG my a$$.
-
4 Repliesi heard a rumour they use the time and date as a seed for the RND generator, which means if you decode all your engrams at the same time, you will most likely get the same item. perhaps if players waited an hour between decryption , they might be different items, Might be worth a check if someone has a few engrams ready. Cheers
-
I've gotten the Wardcliff Coil, Merciless, and Orpheus Rig, so I've stopped caring about exotics. This isn't D1 where exotics are unique and powerful. This is D2 where most exotics feel weak and worthless.
-
1 Replythey should have made it so, if you already have an exotic or it is in your vault then those you don't have get a higher chance at being droped until you have all the exotics and then it it just purely random. this is what they said they were going to do originally.
-
Gambling is an addiction
-
Two Nightfall in a row give me the same exotic that I have equipped it is sad.
-
I don't receive enought exotic engrams to be able to compare but what I find annoying is when I had Ghost Primus EQUIPPED and finished the Raid, went to the tower and collected 2 legendary engrams which were both the Ghost Primus! Oh did I mention I already had that exact same weapon eqiuped!!!!
-
most people dont realize that Bungie intentionally coded this into the game. It was done on purpose to receive duplicates. It was also coded into the game on purpose to randomly receive an error code and get booted. They did this on purpose.
-
3 RepliesY'all are a bunch of babies play WoW during Mop doing the legendary quest and then complain about RNG.
-
Edited by ASTROSLEEP: 11/15/2017 11:18:59 AMThe loot IS rng only your loot pool is often one item. For those that do not know Bungie uses behavioral psychology to determine the rewards in game. Your loot pool is determined by your behavioral profile and how you play the game. You have no visibility of this profile and it cannot be easily changed as you likely have many hours invested in a single character profile. Your only recourse is to delete character and try again. Probably not the answer you want to hear. The system sucks and is not perfect. FYI the specialist will always get shafted when it comes to loot. Focus on being a short or long omnivore.
-
Its was the same in D1, i got 15 uni remotes on the trot. Than when i finally got the gally i got another 8 straight after it.
-
Yup I keep getting the same crap over and over latest is 4 Borealis in a row
-
Mine is the tricksleeves. I’ve come to expect them so often that I have the great surprise when it’s something different. The only exotic I’m wanting is the nighthawk helmet. I won’t have that until xur sells it more than likely
-
The game wouldn’t give me the Prospector until Xur sold it, it was the last exotic weapon i needed for the past 3 weeks
-
I have handed in around 30-35 engrams and have got the prospector ( hate the thing) 18 times, Its got to the stage we're I'm starting to aim for how many I can get, gave up on hard light, I want 2 more prospectors for this months goal.
-
I've gotten so many duplicate exotic boots on every character........do I really need that many? 😧 One of my friends told me he has almost all the exotics. Shit I don't even have half on any of my characters nor guns. I get lucky if it's something different but it ends up being a repeat that I just trash.
-
5 RepliesI mentioned to a friend how hard uriels gift was to drop. He has 6 and plays 1/3rd as much as I do.
-
I can understand getting a few duplicates here and there but 4 crest of alpha lupi in a row back to back to back to back!! Low and behold my next 3 were all prospectors!!!! Random?????? They can tongue punch my fart box!!!!
-
1 ReplyIt was to my understanding that there would be no math involved.
-
[quote]First I have the game on PS4 and PC, logging in about ten days played. On PC, I have opened around 35 Exotic engrams. Thirteen have been one item (the Prospector). That is 37%. The odds of this are so minute it isn't possible without a bug or it being engineered into game. RNG my A.S.S With a true RNG, there are roughly 25 items (guns and armor). That gives you a 4% chance to get an item. Since there is always 25 in the pool the 4% will never change. Say you want item x. Opening 20 engrams gives you a 55% chance of getting it. 30=70% 40=80% 50=87% 60=91% 70=94% calculated by a 96% chance of not getting it. 0.96 to the power of x (x being how many engrams) minus 1 then times -100 ex: 20 engrams 0.96^20=0.442 0.442-1=-0.557 -0.557x-100=55.7% chance to get x item in 20 engrams So getting 13 of the same item is almost impossible. LOL but it happened As a side note: I play the hunter and have farmed for the O rig legs on both platforms. Have done over 1,000 public events most heroic and have only gotten them once. Tracked PC events for the last 200. Only included heroic events and two fire team medallions running. There was a 6.5% drop rate of exotics. That is 13 in 200 events. While the sample size is small and I may have been very very unlucky it can give you an idea of how others are doing. Good luck to all on the grind.[/quote] Bungie cant code
-
I get the same exotics all the time, I can't get any new ones. I don't even have half of them. It's more than bad luck.
-
2 Repliesplayed D1 for 3 years. SUROS Regime dropped once. [b]after[/b] MoT. #RNGODDAMMITWHYDOYOUHATEME
-
1 ReplyI still can’t get Hardlight. And I have the shader for it!
-
that's just a theory....... A GAME THEORY.
