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Editado por FrenetiCreature: 5/12/2016 11:03:15 PM
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Crucible Games Predetermined?

Now, I'm not really what you'd call a "Conspiracy Theory type guy", but I did use to work as a police officer, before my accident. In that line of work, you're trained to notice things, patterns or things out of the ordinary. Well, I've played my fair share of Crucible matches, and then some. Throughout my time playing, I've noticed that there seems to be a trend in the outcome of the matches. Some of you may have noticed this also. Have you ever noticed how, in some matches, it seems like no matter how well you aim or what weapons you use, the other guys are just able to outshoot you; But then, in other matches, you'd literally have to sit down in the middle of the map and not shoot your gun at all in order to go negative? The funny thing is, sometimes the guys that are so easy to kill are the ones that did so well on your team last match, while maybe the guys who did poorly on the other team last match, but are totally wrecking on your team this time? Also, have you ever noticed that everybody's connection bar jumps around during the matches, going from green to yellow, back to green, then to red, back to green? Yet, Bungie is always so "tight lipped" about their matchmaking and always blames any kind of connection issues on the players' set-up, even though most of us have absolutely no problems with any other online games. And the biggest tend that I've noticed is that the outcome of matches almost always follow the same exact pattern. Similar to this: [u]Alpha Team[/u] Player 1 - 25 kills, 2.0 k/d Player 2 - 15 kills, 0.9 k/d Player 3 - 13 kills, 0.8 k/d Player 4 - 8 kills, 0.5 k/d Player 5 - 5 kills, 0.6 k/d Player 6 - 2 kills, 0.2 k/d [u]Bravo Team[/u] Player 1 - 21 kills, 1.75 k/d Player 2 - 20 kills, 1.80 k/d Player 3 - 17 kills, 3.0 k/d Player 4 - 12 kills, 1.25 k/d Player 5 - 10 kills, 0.9 k/d Player 6 - 9 kills, 0.8 k/d It's almost always like that. One team will have a player at the top with a bunch of kills and a good k/d, while the rest of the teams scores are crap. The other team will have the top four players with really decent scores and the bottom two will be... meh, but not horrible. It's like this almost every game, even though it's all the same players switching back and forth between teams, being mixed up each time. Doesn't that seem weird to you? Just start really paying attentions to the scores after each game you play. I'm sure you'll start to notice the pattern too. My theory is this: There is a mechanism within the matchmaking that brings players of about the same skill level into each match. (I know, common knowledge right? SBMM, OK, I know, but...) During the match, the game can "[i]sense[/i]", how well each player is doing. Each player has a "predetermined" placing, where the game decides before the match, about what the players score should be after each match, in order to conform to the model that it deems appropriate. Like the score table I made above. So, if the game has decided that an Alpha Team player should place at about 4th place at the end of the match, but that player is playing well and is starting to score above where he should be, the game will drop that player's "connection" down into the yellow. That way that player stats experiencing lag. We all know what it's like when you start lagging. You get shot through walls, enemies eat your bullets, they teleport all around, they kill you in two shots, etc. This way, it makes it so that player's score goes back within the parameters that the game has chosen for that player. This would explain why sometimes you start out decent, but then all of a sudden, it's like no matter what you do, you can't get kills for anything; and why your connection varies so much, even though you have a wired connection with decent speeds. It would also account for why, sometimes it seems like everyone is playing so inconsistently. One game you're awesome, the next, you're playing like you're blind, even though it's against essentially the same people. It would actually explain a lot of things. As for the reason behind it, I'm not exactly sure. But, it could come down to something like, gratification. If you start out and you're doing well for the first few games, you're happy, you want to play more. The game keeps you at our near the top. Now that you're really in the mood to play, it starts dropping you down. You feel like maybe it's a fluke, but you want revenge. You play more to get back to the top. You keep getting dumped on. But, when you're just about to quit, all of a sudden there's no lag. Your shots land every time. Your enemies die like they should. You're happy again. You play more. This keeps you playing, just as Bungie wants. The more you play, the better it is for Bungie. Now, I'm just talking about regular 6v6 crucible matches here. I haven't played trials or many other modes enough to say anything about them. But maybe there is a system similar in those other modes. (Let me know if you've noticed anything.) Anyway, I could be completely wrong. Maybe I'm just too tired or thinking into it too much. But, the facts are, I've noticed this pattern in the scoring. I noticed it a while back and just thought it was weird. But, as a cop, you learn that there aren't such a thing as coincidences. Also, Bungie won't talk about their matchmaking process. And, whenever you have connection problems, they always answer, "Read the help page, clear your cache." It's the same answer every time. I know this isn't a really well thought out and written explanation of my theory, as its 5 am and I am pretty tired. But, hopefully it's enough that most of you will understand what I'm getting at. Let me know what you think and if you have any ideas or theories. Edit 1: Hey, thanks for all of the positive and mature replies guys. Of course there is always the occasional, "Get gud." Or "You're just trying to make excuses." Replies. I don't have thin skin, as a police officer it thickens up real quick. So, I just read those, shake my head and move on. I know why I'm negative on all of my characters. It's no secret that I just completely sucked and was learning to play with a bummed hand. Plus, I hadn't played a video game in almost 15 years when I started playing Destiny, back in November 2014. Plus, I always play solo/random. I never play with anyone else. Which makes having a positive k/d a lot tougher. The very few times that I have been on a Fireteam, it was like "Easy Mode". So I know. I have a negative k/d. It's no big revelation. But, if you look at my history and stats on Destinytracker.com, you'll see that my stats and k/d have steadily risen since I started. But, I'm about 4,000 kills in the negative. Even if I got a 2.0 k/d and an average of 30 kills every round. That's +15 kills every round. It would take me 266 matches to get positive. Plus, I play Control almost exclusively. Just check my stats. I'm not the best out there, but my current stats aren't pure sh!t either. Also, speaking of checking my history, you can see in my matches history even more evidence of what I'm talking about here. I'll have streaks where I play awesome for a handful of games and then you'll see where it turns to crap for a handful of games. It goes back and forth, even though it's against the same group of guys sometimes. You could blame it on just playing well, then not playing so well. But, I think that's too easy an explanation. One game all my shots from my "God Roll" Hawksaw just tear through everyone, like a hot knife through butter. But, then the next game every other shot misses or it takes 8 shots to kill somebody? 17 (body shot) x3 (rounds per pulse rifle shot) = 51. That's 51 damage per body shot from Hawksaw. 51 x 8 = 408. That's enough damage to kill two guardians. I count my shots when it starts to seem strange. Plus, I'm a little OCD and have a tendency to count anyway. Anyway, when it takes 8 Hawksaw shots to kill someone, something is wrong, very wrong. You could call it lag, and yes I would agree. But, why would it change from one match to the next, or during the same match sometimes. Even with the same group of people? One game I'm killing everyone in 3-4 shots, the next it takes 6-8 shots? Hmmmm, seems odd to me. Also, the "Host" idea, I find this to be very true. I can tell when I'm the host, because I'll be the one at the top of the leader board, with close to 30 kills and a 2.0+ k/d. But, then the next game I can barely get 6 kills with a 0.3 k/d. That's just ridiculous. It's so inconsistent. I think Bungie knows all about it. I think they use this to their advantage and it ties into the whole theory. And that's why they're so "tight lipped" and "politely unhelpful" when it comes to us complaining about lag and matchmaking.
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  • I have noticed a pattern in that I will sometimes do amazing (over 3.0 kd) and other times I will get my ass handed to me and have a .4-.5 I always assumed that they would take your kd performance and rank you into tiers and when your Kd passes a threshold you are bumped to the next tier. this would explain the jumps in performance and keep their ideal 60% or whatever win rate they want everyone to have. having matches rigged to that degree seems to me at least to much effort for the amount of work they seem to be willing to put unto the game. example how many reused assets do you see in the game be it story areas, weapons/armor, or even PvE enemies?

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  • I've noticed it in the Iron Banner most of all. One match you play really well and the next match it doesn't matter what you do you can't kill people on the other team. Why is it one time you can shoot someone 3 times and kill them then the next match you can shoot them 8 times and they're still not dead. There is no consistency to it. If you're bad you're bad if your good your good, there shouldn't be this huge swing from game to game especially if you're playing against the same players using the same weapons.

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  • I see the same pattern. Hate this crap.

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  • Might want to loosen the tin foil hat, it might cause blood flow problems

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    • You forgot to factor in average kill distance.

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    • it was stated that they due balance win/loss ratio and kd. basically they're saying stay! stay! dont you move up youll just make it harder on yourself if you win much cause youll bump yourself into next tier lvl on the SBMM. but no the teams and your likelihood to win/lose each game is pre determined. they literally said they balance it.

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    • I'm not a spectacular crucible player either. One look at my stats will confirm this. I'm in the same boat you are, former Marine, spinal injury, bum right arm. So I get the low k/d. I've noticed this trend as well and played two PvP games that fall into your model. Two games, separated by some PvE play. First game I went 25/5 with a 15 kill streak. Game after PvE I went like 2/14. Excellent observations.

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    • While some of your points seem a stretch too far, I have thought a few times that there seemed to be some "rubber banding" in favour of the losing team to make it a closer towards the end and therefore make a more enjoyable win for the victors and not such a bitter defeat for the losers.

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    • Idk but I definitely have a very similar experience being no 1 on the leader board, with a amazing kd, then getting a .5kd several games.

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    • I love conspiracy theories. I do notice that my game to game performance is highly variable, it does also seem that players who crushed it last game, aren't so good the next one. I think that "pattern" may just be due to randomness. Sometimes the difference between a streak or dying 5 times is a well placed super getting a multikill or shutting down an enemy super. Then your performance depends a lot on how your teammates may compliment what you do, so the mixture of both classes/subclasses plus different talents (sniping, cqc, focusing objectives) can lead to dramatically different outcomes due to synergy of all these different variables on the team, map, opponents and the luck.

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    • Nonsense and paranoia kicking in I think.. sorry

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    • Are you mentally handicapped?

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      • No amount of anecdotal evidence adds up to statistical significance. It's all in your head man.

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        • Holy -blam!-ing shit, so much text for such a stupid point. My brain just got swole, deteriorated, and them shrunk all in the matter of seconds.

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        • TL;DR--------> You win some you lose some.

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        • I find that wearing a spinfoil hat is the best way to beat the system

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        • Omg this was the tinfoiliest of hat posts ever. It could be a really well thought out troll or the dumbest guy ever. Not sure which

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          • their not even real people, in fact 99% of the people you see are not people they are bots like in unreal tourn.

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          • Editado por cuzzybubba1: 5/13/2016 6:56:54 PM
            It's all math and SBMM.. It weights each 6 man team vs the other 6 using it's logic to predict as close as possible a 50/50 outcome (either team has a chance to win). Obviously, we don't know the formula they use to determine "skill" and then other factors like connection being considered..etc.. Ever notice when you slam a team and the other rando's on your team all go high KD it will seperate you from those guys next match and weight you down with lesser skilled players while moving your previous teammates opposite of you in an attempt to make you lose the next match to maintain the 50/50 Bungie wants. Obviously, full fire-teams and pre-made fireteams can take a lot of the chance out of it. At this point in Destiny, I really don't care if I win as the system is rigged from the get-go I just try to have a good time and go positive and contribute to my team.

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          • Go home Op, you're drunk.

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            • Wow

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            • Stopped reading after the first sentence. Whether it's true or not it's just begging for attention. Especially the "before my accident" bit. Cool you were a police officer and that taught you stuff that is all you really need to mention. Hell you don't even need to mention that much. Just begging for attention.

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            • I didn't read all of that, but they are predetermined in a way. Bungie has already started the goal is to have everyone at a 50% win rate. So you'll win some and then they'll put you against better players and you'll lose some. Also, if you go to guardian.gg you can see all of your past games. The system rates each team on how sure the system is they will lose or win based on the average ELO of each team. It's very very frequently correct.

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            • Editado por Camnew: 5/13/2016 7:18:58 PM
              What you theorized in this post may or may not be true. But here's the thing: Why? Why would a company want to specifically control a player's performance? What would the motivation be for a complex, structured system designed for the strange purpose of keeping players at a specific placing? The amount of effort and intricacy required to design this system is astronomical, and would ultimately amount to no real profit. In my opinion, I think this is similar to most conspiracy theories. Argument from ignorance, seeing pattern in nuanced randomness. It's really not out fault. Our brains are designed to detect patterns, and sometimes we overcompensate for our lack of understanding.

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              • I don't believe its quite to this extent. But i do believe bungie tries to maintain a 1.0 player kd and win loss. So sometimes youre just doomed to go negative or lose a game no matter how well you do.

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              • Ok holy hell that was tldr but I'm going to give you an actual mechanism in matchmaking that most people don't know. Bungle rigs matches. They have something else in their code that actually tries to maintain a 50:/50 win/ loss ratio for all players (stated by devs) . So basically the game will eventually try and match you up or down depending on how well your doing. Winning too Much, well here's someone better. Awww losing a lot, here's some. 01 kd scrubs.

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