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Edited by ROBERTO jh: 2/10/2015 2:15:48 PM
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Halo 5 and Halo 3 Betas recompared. Edited Again

Edit 2: My own thoughts: in light of additional conversation, it doesn't seem likely that the numbers provided add up. The original statistic that Logfish advocates requires the average match to last 56 seconds. That itself is only possible if each individual breakout round counted as a match, and even then, that's hard to believe given that even breakout rounds last longer than a solitary minute. Additionally, Slayer and Strongholds each lasted for several minutes, and Slayer was the only game available for awhile, so the idea that the average match time was 56 seconds is rather ludicrous. Additionally, the average playtime of 2.5 hours is also ludicrous if even at face value, as that would require thousands of players out of 1million to have logged on and practically logged off immediately.That is not adequate time for the individual to properly play the game and conclude they don't like it, which means the issue lies with the community rather than the actual game. The only conclusion that can be drawn from this is that the numbers are wrong--personally, it seems likely the 1million player statistic is wrong as that was provided by IGN and not 343i, and IGN did not cite it. Otherwise, someone screwed up. Edit: Caboose edited his OP and has retracted his original statement. He is of the opinion, last I checked, that the stats 343i released were either incorrect, or each individual Breakout round was counted as a match. That doesn't make sense to me, but until we get an official confirmation from 343i's Josh Holmes, it appears as though the original statistic was correct. Will leave the original post as Caboose did for reference. [quote]Dunno if anyone posted this yet, so here it is. There was a huge thread a few days ago that claimed Halo 5's beta performed poorly compared to Halo 3's and this was proof that Halo 5 failed as a Halo game https://www.halowaypoint.com/en-us/forums/6e35355aecdf4fd0acdaee3cc4156fd4/topics/h5beta-vs-h3beta-halo-fans-do-want-to-play-h5/c3368688-aed2-4611-bd02-d348dfd20186/posts This user, I Iz Caboose, mathematically compares the Halo 3 and Halo 5 betas and confirms that the Halo 5 beta is, in fact, something people wanted to play; it [i]beat[/i] Halo 3's beta. [quote] So in this popular thread, the OP links to an image describing the per player differences in total hours played between the H3 and H5 betas. The OP kindly also provided the links to his source information in the image (for which I thank him). Unfortunately, based on the source information provided, the OP's comparison is incorrect. Per the H5 Beta data source, there were 20M matches played for a total of 2.5M gameplay hours. The OP took this number to mean hours played by player. That assumption is wrong. If there were 20M matches and the 2.5M hours meant by player, then we can calculate the average match duration: {2.5M hrs / (8 players per match * 20M matches)} * (3600 seconds / hr) = 56 seconds per match (average) The average match length for the H5 beta was certainly not only 56 seconds. So we know now that the H5 data cannot possibly mean hours by player. If, however, we assume the 2.5M hours is not by player, but rather by match, we get a much more sensible answer: {(2.5M hrs) / (20M matches)} * (60 min / hr) = 7.5 minutes per match (average) So it is quite clear that the H5 Beta data is based on hours by match - not hours by player. Looking at his provided link for the H3 Beta data source, we find Major Nelson giving 820K unique players and 12M hours of total playtime. Major Nelson further goes on to say that this is equivalent to a single player logging 1,400 continuous years of playtime. So does Major Nelson mean 12M hours by match (like H5) or 12M hours by player? We can easily find out. Let's find out what 1,400 continuous years of playtime comes out to in terms of hours by player: 1,400 yrs * (365 days / year) * (24 hrs / day) = 12.26M hours Major Nelson does, indeed, mean hours by player. This is also consistent with his statistic for downloaded data, which was a total cumulative by player statistic. Thus, in order to compare the H5 and H3 betas, we must either convert the H3 numbers into hours by match or convert the H5 numbers into hours by player. Let's do that and see where we come out: Using H5 "hours by match" statistics: H5 Guardians: 1M players with 2.5M total match hours H3 Beta: 0.82M players with 1.5M total match hours - or - Using H3 "hours by player" statistics: H5 Guardians: 1M players with an average of 20.0 hrs played per player H3 Beta: 0.82M players with an average of 14.6 hrs played per player In other words, the two betas had comparable statistics for matches and total hours played on a per-player basis, with the H5 beta actually beating H3 in both categories. Wild theorizing about why the H5 beta had so much less replay value need no longer apply. One question remains: Will the OP of the other thread generate and post a corrected infographic? [/quote] He later clarifies what this means [quote] If the 2.5M hours are by player (so that a match of 10 minutes with 8 players accumulates 10 * 8 = 80 minutes of total playtime) then you have to divide that 2.5M hours by the number of players in the match to get the match length. If the 2.5M hours are by match (so that a match of 10 minutes accumulates 10 minutes of total playtime regardless of the number of players in the match), then you do not include the number of players in the divisor. [/quote][/quote]
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  • Edited by BrokenBicycle: 4/20/2015 10:04:33 PM
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  • I await Logfish's damage control

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    • Trying to find halo 4 competitive players to play heavies and big team with. Would love to make crew and have a team of six and eight always that would be nice. I have over a three point KD ratio on Halo 4 and a good win rate.

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    • >people in that thread are actually angry that Halo 5's stats are higher than Halo 3's Just lol

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      • Awesome. Both games are fun to play, and I'm eager to see what BTB is like in Guardians.

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        • Bump

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        • I don't do math... [spoiler]But I loved Halo 5's beta. My only regret was that it ended.[/spoiler]

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          • I don't dare touch Halo 5 on launch after the debacle that MCC was. I don't care how popular or unpopular the beta was. 343i -blam!-ed up, and frankly, I don't believe they deserve pre-orders.

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            • I don't get the hysteria and/or surprise around this though; isn't it obvious there'd be higher/better stats with the Halo 5 beta? The industry has grown in population and popularity by a massive amount since 2006/2007.

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              • After deciding to patrol throughout the other posts on waypoint o finally realized why the mods there are so strict. Almost every thread is aimed at downplaying and proving everything 343 is doing wrong, and anyone who says differently has been called a 343 fanboy. I'm surprised they haven't just shut down their forums in all honesty.

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                • Made additional edits to the OP regarding my own thoughts on this.

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                • I can't wait for Halo 5

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                • lolHalo

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                  • The halo community is so pathetic right now, Halo 5 is looking great as far as i know and there have been positive reactions to it. This community used to be amazing, now is filled with bungie asskissers who think everything 343 do is the path to the death of halo.

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                    • Edited by Logfish111: 2/10/2015 12:17:25 AM
                      Hold on a second. Check his post again. He has actually corrected himself. Every round of Breakout was being counted as a completed match therefore the original figures were right. [quote]I am preserving the original post in quotes below. That way, my incorrect analysis will preserved for posterity. [b]I based the analysis on 56 seconds being too short for a match length. If the actual H5 match length were a typical slayer match length, the analysis below would be correct. However, I no longer believe that to be the case.[/b] I don't need a reply from Josh Holmes to come to this conclusion, so I won't wait for that. For me to be correct, the average match length for the H5 beta needs to be in the ~7min mark. Let's see if that is possible by looking at the other numbers 343i has given us: Total kills: 181M Total players: 1M With 181M kills and 1M unique beta players, this means the average player achieved 181 kills. Let's just say that the average player achieved 10 kills per match. Yes, that's low . . . but it actually gets worse for the H5 beta as the kill count per match increases. So . . . 181 kills at a 10-kill-per-match average means that the average beta player participated in 18 matches. For me to be correct, those 18 matches must each have lasted for a typical slayer match duration - or about 7 minutes. This means we can get the average per-player playtime as follows: [b](average # matches per player) * (average match length) * (unique players) = cumulative total playtime 18 * 7 min * 1M = 2.1M hours at only 2.1 hours played per person[/b] This checks very well with the 2.5M playtime hours listed, but does not check well at all with the 20M games played. Were the games to have been typical slayer matches, there should have been ~1.4 billion kills . . . not 181M. What this means is that [b]each ROUND of Breakout was recorded as a completed MATCH[/b] . . . and that [b]the actual average match length was, indeed, 56 seconds.[/b] Since I can reach CHX's conclusion by looking at a different set of numbers and CHX's conclusion is consistent with all of the stats on the infographic, he is correct. My number can be achieved by looking at any 2 of the 3 numbers (kills, hours, matches), but cannot be made consistent with all three simultaneously. I[b]n other words, CHX H8 ME was correct. In comparing the beta playtimes, the average H3 beta player logged 14.6 hours, while the average H5 beta player logged 2.5 hours. Read into that what you will.[/b][/quote] Therefore, I am still right. Suck it up bitches. No one wants to play H5 and it will die a fast death.

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                      • Dayyyyuuummmmm! You the real mvp rob.

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                        • I know, I know, I'm a genius *bows with a flourish* *loud applause* You can thank me later

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                          • [i]Yeah, math bitch![/i]

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                          • Wow people took that guy's post pretty seriously...

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                          • Edited by Logfish111: 2/9/2015 11:09:26 PM
                            -blam!- sake this is BS. Halo is so dead right now. See if I give a shit. Still doesn't mean that H5 won't die out super fast on launch.

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                            • HOOOOOOOLLLLLLEEEEEEEEE SHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEETTTTTT

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                              • Are you kidding me

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                              • I could really care less if Halo 5's beta beat out Halo 3's only because I think Halo 5 is really shaping up to be a good Halo game in general. I'm one of those rare few people who actually enjoyed playing Halo 4 (yes there is things I didn't like) so to me, anything improved is a plus for me. Is Halo 3 the best IMO, ofcourse. All I know is I'm getting Halo 5 when it comes out and if people don't get it because it's not "halo3" is their loss.

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                                • Edited by Machinimagames: 2/9/2015 10:26:36 PM
                                  I think it's because thee Halo universe has expanded. It's not as unique as it use to be back in the Halo 3 days. It plays like BF, and Cod so it's more for everyone an not just Halo Fans.

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                                  • I didn't like Halo 5 beta, so none of these statistics matter either way.

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                                    • Yikes, he's just been proven wrong

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