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2/2/2015 1:25:44 AM
275
Is Xur RNG? WARNING: Science Content
WARNING: HERE COMES SCIENCE
There are 25 exotic weapons in the game. Fate of All Fools, Vex, and Necrochasm are obtained through the raid or unavailable. This leaves 22.
5 guns can only be obtained through bounties, so that leaves 17.
3 guns are PS Exclusive and Xur can't sell them ATM, so that leaves 14.
This means that, assuming Xur is RNG, each weapon has A 7.14% probability of being sold each week.
With each gun having a 0.071 chance of being sold, we have to calculate the probability of the same gun being sold more than once consecutively.
The most times that this has happened was 2 weeks in a row. The compound probability of this happening is of 0.504% in layman terms, this means that it should happen once approximately every 4 years. Low probability but still plausible RNG.
NOW... When we take into account ARMOR things get a bit trickier.
There are 26 pieces of exotic armor ALL of which can be sold by Xur. This means that each individual piece of armor has 3.84% probability of being sold by Xur.
With each piece of armor having a 0.038 chance of being sold, what is the probability of the same piece of armor being sold in consecutive weeks? Well, the most that this has happened was 4 times. The compound probability of this happening is of 0.000208%
This means that if Xur was RNG, this should happen once approximately... Every 10,000 years.
Now, I will save the boring explanation and just jump to conclusion. Since Xur has sold the exact same inventory with same stats on armor more than once, the probability is too small to put on this article, but it should happen once ever 21,477,719,412 years (if you consider that the Big Bang is theorized to have happened 13.1 Billion years ago, that's longer than the universe has existed... By 1.6 times!
I'm not giving an opinion, I just did the basic math. You make up your own mind.
English
#Destiny
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2 RepliesI think your math is way off...
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34 RepliesNow tell us the probability that you'll ever touch a vagina.... (Hint: divide by zero)
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4 RepliesYou are a moron deej said it wasnt random go look up the youtube video
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3 RepliesArmor: 1/26? So you can get Xur to sell 3 titan armor and no hunter/warlock a week? no... He always sell 1 weapon, 1 warlock armor, 1 titan armor and 1 hunter armor.. So: Weapon 1in14 or 7.14%, warlock armor: 1in6 (pre dlc) or 1in7 (after dlc) so 16% or 14%. But as some other thread showed, do a Random Number Generator. Generate first 1-14 xtimes, 1-7 xtimes. (say 20 times) and write down all the resultat. You will notice that some numbers will get in a row, some will not show up at all. And you might get same "week" some time. You can generate this 100 times and still be missing a number in some catogory. Even if Xur is 100% RNG and all item ahve same % there is a possiblite that it will NEVER show up (aka thunderlord?)
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6 RepliesYou are assuming each weapon/armor piece has the same odds of being rolled. That may not be the case. For all we know, for example, voidfang vestments could have a 25% chance of being rolled, whereas the other warlock exotics could have a lower roll rate. That would throw a huge wrench in your math there. I do agree with you on the math (although some don't get it). It is true that each week is independent of the other, but the chances that the same thing happening multiple times does get lower and lower as it keeps happening. For instance, the probability you flip a heads on the first flip is 50%. Fair enough. The probability you flip heads on the second flip is still 50%, the third flip, still 50%. However, the probability to flip TWO HEADS IN A ROW is 25%, and 12.5% for three heads in a row...and so on.
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4 RepliesOK take warlock armor there were 6 when void fang came up four times in a row create a random number generator with 6 number run it 26 time record your results. Come back here an post them. This simple task will help you learn how RNG works.
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2 RepliesDon't really understand coz my math sucks, but have you considered that the percentage of a weapon being sold might be lower than another? Eg. Gjallarhorn has a 1% chance, compared to NLB or Dragon's Breath which have a 15% chance of being sold
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2 RepliesAnd after all this OP hasn't taken into account that some items probably are more weighted than others
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2 RepliesDon't you have to separate every class for the armor drop? He always sells one piece of warlock, one hunter, and one titan. Therefore, we could say that there's an even higher probability for him to sell the same armor piece for weeks in a row, yes?
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10 RepliesEdited by GraveBane: 2/2/2015 7:30:21 PMnot sure but I think you are forgetting that while there are 26 exotic armors, they are divided into 3 classes and each class has its own pool for xur. like I see 9 warlock armors. so the chance of getting any 1 warlock armor would be .111, not .038 compound that would be something like .01518%? still small but it seams alot bigger then .000208% add in when those 4 things were sold there were only 6 warlock exotics and the numbers go up even more. to 16.6% chance for each peice and .0762% for 4 pieces in a row.
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2 Replies[b]Starfire protocol[/b]. That is all.
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2 Replies"Basic math"
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3 RepliesHere's more basic math, you're compounding which you can't do in independent systems, they have no effect on each other. For people that don't know what I'm referring to, think of an X and Y axis. X is its own thing and so is Y, they have nothing to do with each other. So it's roughly an 8% chance a weapon will be sold one weekend, it's still roughly an 8% chance it will be sold the next weekend. They do not compound.
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2 RepliesNice math kind of. However you operate on the assumption that he is completely RNG in which case Gambler's Fallacy would apply as each week is independent of itself. At the same time, due to recent evidence, he cannot be RNG therefor that concept would not apply, but your math is solid
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2 RepliesEdited by Dyalar: 2/2/2015 7:09:51 PMBruh. Do you even -blam!-ing math. You already made yourself look stupid by posting this same drivel as a comment, now you create a thread and draw even more attention to it. And before you ask, I'm pointing out three things: 1, Xur sells one armor piece per class every week. So even distribution of probability would be 1/(armor piece per class), not 1/26. 2, Sunbreakers were sold pre-DLC, so even probability would be 1/6 (3 helms, 2 robes, 1 gloves). 3, Weighted probabilities (which are very possible) are still RNG.
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6 RepliesGambler's Fallacy. The outcome of a previous roll does not have an effect on the next roll.
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4 RepliesI think it's RNG but I think they make the gjallarhorn a much lower percentage to be called. NBA draft for example. The worst team has a 98% chance of getting the first draft pick. But there's still a 2% chance the best team (gjallarhorn) in the draft gets chosen .
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1 ReplyHave to reduce your armor number...has to be one from each class...no chance of 3 warlock exotics
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3 RepliesEdited by DjNormal: 2/2/2015 7:14:09 PMXûr selling any other combination of gear has the exact same likelihood. Rolling 1-1-1-1-1-1 is just as likely as 1-2-3-4-5-6 or 2-4-2-1-6-5. Edit: forgot to add the last number on example 3, moops.
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3 Replieshttps://www.bungie.net/en/Forum/Post/97882173/0/0/1
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10 RepliesYou do realize each week is independent of every other week, making your math invalid
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https://www.bungie.net/en/Forum/Post/97882173/0/0/1
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https://www.bungie.net/en/Forum/Post/97882173/0/0/1
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14 RepliesYou didn't separate the armor by class types That would've drastically changed your final numbers.
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8 RepliesThe way I see it, xur works like a slot machine. Each item slot has its own rng. It goes from left to right so that the same item isn't in there twice in the same week. It will roll the first one then the result is removed from the second roll which will increase the chances of the others and same with the third. Then weapons roll and then engrams roll. So basically the first slot has the lowest rate of the same each week while the second has an increased chance and the third has even more. The chance of getting the same single item each week requires a bit more math in this case which I do not feel like doing atm
