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1/29/2015 11:46:47 PM
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If it is TRULY random, then you are falling into the Gamblers Fallacy, otherwise known as the Fallacy of Maturity of Probability, which is that one believes the odds of something occurring changes based on prior instances or lack of.
If it is truly random, then the chances of an item being sold work off of a fixed probability, where every "roll of the dice" has an equal chance to produce any side. No favorability to or lessening based on prior occurrence.
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This is mostly a sarcasm and snarkines free discussion, and I'm enjoying the input. My only point was not to put any additional weight to the roll of the dice. If Bungie is weighting the items (probably) and/or removing items from the table (probably not), the principles of random still hold. If there are 1000 spots on a table, chances are equal at each and every try for each and every spot. Now if one item occupies multiple spots, then probability is affected, but not chance. Also, Bungie is most likely modifying that table to affect probability, but not removing items, so as to leave their statement of random chance intact. Pure speculation.
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You're right, but I think some items are "weighted" more than others
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U wot m8
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Edited by GRADO7: 1/30/2015 10:11:34 AMNonetheless, if I remember my lessons of "probability calculation" you can calculate the probability of having a series of negative events (no Gjallahorn) AFTER the last event takes place. If Gjallahorn is in Xur list, the chances for it not to be sold for 19 weeks, out of 21 exotics is 39%. Therefore I would say there are good chances for Xur to be random and for Giallahorn to be sold in the future. After 36 weeks the odds for it not to be sold are 17%. I may start believing Xur is not random. The MIDA tool would seem to be as rare as the Gja;;ahorn
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And the chances of selling NBL-Dragon Breath two times in a row? Or Starfire Protocol 5 times since the DLC ? Xur IS NOT RANDOM
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It depends on the weight of the items If u roll a die 6 times the odds of rolling a 1 re-set with each throw It's possible to roll a 1 6 times in a row It's also possible to roll 1,2,3,4,5,6 in order. Example of how rng could work in this game 1= ghorn 2-3= icebreaker 4-5-6= nlb Roll a six sided dice Nlb has a higher chance of being rolled so you could expect nlb 3 times in a row (Not saying he is or isn't rng just giving examples from preciuse rng based games I have played and systems they had in place)
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Yes, but if you are implying that we have a 99% of getting Starfire protocol, 0.1% of getting any other warlock armor, then this is not really 'random'. Bungie has decided that we have more chances of getting one object than the rest, so they can't say that if we are not getting something is because the RNG has decided that we should not have it. THEY have made this tables.
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This is what a rng system is like in every game I have played that uses different tiers of items If there was exactly the same chance of getting a rare as a common then the rare item isn't rare :/ Random number generator means the roll is generated randomly but the no assigned to the items aren't, you are thinking the doe has items on it when it actualy just rolls a no The actual no generation is random that's why it is random number generation Not random item generator ( a very clever play that was started years ago)
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But here we are talking about chances between the same type of object, of course you have a smaller percentage of getting exotics than legendaries than rares, etc. But Bungie has stated regularly that all exotics are equal (at least they said so pre-DLC), but it seems this is not true. And Xur is the same, he just sells exotics, no other types of rarities, so if he was truly random, he would have the same chances of selling a Gjallarhorn than a Dragon Breath and it clearly is not the case.
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Sorry not partial to bunjie saying all exotics are the same I assumed there are sub tiers of exotics This is what I'm used to Example of how some rares are better than others.
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I'm not siding one way or the other Just giving my experiences with rng systems I'm also fed up with people saying "He is rng just because he is" with no examples of how and why There is no way to prove he is or isn't rng without bun actually saying so and publishing algorithms which isn't going to happen
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Edited by Polar: 1/30/2015 12:03:44 PMThing is, after this week we can assume he is not random, or Bungie decides what he is going to sell or we have a weighted table, with very different weights between exotics, so in the end, in both these options, Bungie is really deciding what Xur is going to sell, it is not truly 'random' PS: Then we have DeeJ saying Xur is going to sell Icebreaker a day before he does.
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No he didn't.
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If he is rng I think it could just be a simple there aren't enough items in the pool. It's weighted that much will be certain if he is rng and with the limited items we have it will seem like a bigger weight than if we had 3,4 times tho no of weapons. These systems where designed for thousands of weapons not the limited pool in destiny.
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It's not random in my opinion just think about it the last month he has sold nothing but DLC gear bungie wants more people to buy the dlc I guarantee next week will be dlc gear
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Have you noticed how often we are getting the new stuff? No Land, Dragons Breathe, mk44s, Don't Touch Me, Starfire! All at least twice, as well as all three new helmets. I think Bungie messed up the weightings of the new items when they added them to Xûr's list. So everything else now has a reduced chance. My theory.
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I believe it, just like they messed up the map selection in the crucible, esspecially the last iron banner.
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A very good point and probably the most likely of reasons that or they where weighted that way on purpose
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It isn't truly RNG it is weighted RNG so it isn't exactly random.that's why we find patterns of weapon types and items occurring me frequently
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You coded the game?! Cool, thanks for settling the great debate and clearing that up for us! I can rest easy tonight, and for that I thank you.
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Stop being a goddamn smartass that's what is usually used in loot based games. I was trying to put forth information to add to the conversation.to be helpful not say anyone is wrong or start a debate so take your bullshit sarcasm somewhere else. Ugh stop assuming everyone is trying to argue.
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What information did you contribute? It's speculation, juuuust like everyone else. I could say whatever idea is floating around in my head for the loot system and it carries as much weight as yours :)
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Lol its pretty obvious but you clearly don't understand random.is it random that Xur just happens to have all dark below gear at the same time exclusively? Do you know the odds of that happening? And weighted RNG is the most obvious and fit answer to the situation and if you don't agree you clearly know nothing of it But that's beside the point that I have no petience for someone who uses lazy sarcasm to disrupt a conversation because he disagrees or has nothing to add. But whatever you will use your flawed logic and tired sarcasm to drag this out to no end so I'm gone. Btw don't shame the art of sarcasm by wasted it on the same lines 1,000 trolls have used on these forums already.its pretty trite to be honest. Have a good one guy,bye.
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Cya big guy, thank you for imparting all of us with your boundless wisdom and knowledge. I am truly blessed to have the opportunity to read the words that you typed. This changes everything. I feel like my eyes are finally open for the first time in my life.
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No problem man. I rarely bless others so greatly.you are a truly lucky man. Be grateful lol.
