EDIT#1: additions to theories EDIT#2: major revisions for clarity EDIT#3: major revisions for clarity, added TLDR section with summaries [u]Problem[/u]: I am convinced that the RNG system is actually bogus. There is no way every drop in the game is a one off chance for any given weapon or armor from the entire game. That's a lie, even for just class specific gear. First and foremost random number generation is just a tool! There's no way loot is randomly generated or linearly scaled up in this game. I think there are pre determined rolls for high level drops made for each individual character which then roll against a specific loot table for a raid or nightfall which with a modifier based on skill which nerfs the roll for a leading player and buffs the roll for a losing player. I don't think there is any way to justify that the loot system is purely random as it's been told to us to work. [u]The Theories[/u]: *** The RNG is just the tool to roll against one of the multiple loot tables which were created with specific sets of weapons, armor, upgrade materials, coins, and engrams. These handle the [u]end-of-mission rewards[/u] for each game like crucible, nightfall, and raids. Each mission type is assigned one of these loot tables. *** I think there is growing observation to suggest that your character may have undergone a hidden roll at creation which determines an all-game drop [u]rate[/u] modifier and drop [u]type[/u] modifier. -The drop rate modifier means you literally have a predetermined chance of getting more or less loot than the players around you. -The drop type modifier would then determine an adjust drop rate for a selection of each type of weapon and armor. There must already be a modifier of this type so that we're getting class-specific drops 99% of the time already. This would be an extension of that same modifier which would boost to drop rates for a subset of each kind of exotic and legendary armors and weapons in the game. The meaning is that you are [b]designed to get only part of all the game's loot no matter how hard you try[/b] (it is possible, but statistically unlikely, without Xur, to fill in the gaps by just farming) - This loot destiny is unique [i]just to this character[/i] and will be different for your other characters.[b] I think this accounts for why players often get repeat legendaries and exotics rather than the full collection of weapons and armor[/b], as well as widely different patterns of loot drops and frequency. get it? Destiny? *** Remember, unique loot tables are assigned to each game mode and dialed in when you load the mode. There is likely one for vanguard level 24 strike vs ROC vs nightfall. You get the idea. You beat the mission and now you roll against this end-mission loot table with drop chances and types modified by your 'loot destiny' modifiers for that character. *** A difficult aspect of drops to determine is whether or not there are skill based buffs or nerfs to your loot roll in crucible, nightfall, and raids. The community here continuously notes the disparity of end-mission exotics given to low level or lowest KD players in these game modes which suggests an 'equalization buff' of sorts to boost lower players at the expense of better players [i]by design[/i]. This also implies a roll NERF against the top players at end-mission when playing these modes. I don't think pure random numbers can account for the disparity and data needs to be collected and tested on this. Personally, I think the buffs exist for low KD players in all of these modes. *** To try and balance this, Raid chests have their own drops based on the raid loot table with either a roll buff that [i]favors higher level players [/i] OR has an inherently higher predetermined exotic/legendary drop rate which is then modified by your loot destiny. This is an attempt at balance the low KD roll buff mentioned above. This way, the better raid players can get their valuable drops presumably with skill of playing the raid. [b]This is Destiny's attempt at Equalization[/b]. *** I think there must also be a unique bonus modifier for [u]enemy drops[/u] according to either player level or grimoire score. The average drop rate of any type of engram has been observed to increase steadily with increasing level. This only seems to apply to green/blue drops though. I cant tell with any certainty if purple drops are increased by level given their still high rarity outside of the special strikes. I have never seen or heard mention of a mob dropping an exotic engram. *** Others have mentioned they feel there may be an 'age' modifier, similar if not the same one that I think exists for blue and green drops, to a character or username which makes legendary and exotics drop more for younger players and less for older and high level players. Seems harder to code than a loot modifier at character creation and I'm not convinced there's an effect on purple and yellow the way there is on green and blue. *** I don't think there is any kind of modifier for shards or coins. I think these are pretty much handled by the higher level mission loot tables. Also, I think there is a set drop rate for ascendant materials in public events. Seems pretty clear. No difference according to level. [b]*** TLDR START HERE ***[/b] Putting it all together, this is how I think loot drops rolls are stacked against eachother: 1) ALL DROPS - class specific modifier to select appropriate gear from RNG rolls against loot table - loot table for each game mode you are playing is loaded at start of mission - loot destiny modifier for drop rate always in play to determine overall rate of mob, end-mission, and chest drops - loot destiny modifier for drop types always in play to determine subsets of each weapon/armor type you are most likely receive from all rarities for all drops from mob, end-mission, and chests from all loot tables 2) Mob drops - all from #1 are in play - level or grimoire based booster increases rate of blue/green drops with increasing experience - minimal or no change to drop rate of legendaries apart from your loot destiny drop rate modifier 3) End-mission drops - all from #1 are in play, notable for game mode specific loot table being used - low KD roll buff is applied to increase chance for legendary or exotics in crucible, nightfall, and raid - ?high KD roll nerf applied to decrease chance of same drops for top players in these modes 4) Raid Chests - all from #1 in play, notable for a raid loot table being used for all mob, chest, and end-mission drops - a boosted drop rate for purple/yellow is applied to each chest spawn - ?experience or KD roll buff to purple/yellow drops to increase drops for best raid players [u]Conclusions[/u]: [b]I think Bungie instead has literally given you a 'loot destiny' and has a system of loot roll nerfs and buffs that are hidden and skill-based that are in place to try and 'equalize' the playing field[/b]. They also have a ridiculously low drop rate for high level gear against time played or enemies killed although there does seem to be a level based bonus to green and blue gear. The loot system at end-mission is tailored towards boosting low skill players and and actually nerfing higher level players. As a trade off, higher level players get a boosted chance for exotics in the raid chests. If anyone else would like to add or modify this, I'm game. I think the system is far more complex and biased than they let on just calling this an RNG game. Diablo had its time-based buffs for rewards which actually gave you rewards per unit of time spent on specific missions and made sure all time played was rewarded. If you had a dry spell on a boss dungeon your drop rate of rare items would steadily increase on a timer until you got one. This both restricts loot drops overall and tries to get people to play longer (despite less reward) while simultaneously and artificially trying to balance the loot drops for all levels of player but does so in a hidden manner and is NOT RANDOM. This is an inferior model. I think diablo's model of [b]'equalization' by actually making sure everyone gets loot[/b] is a better method. We need to test these theories!