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6/26/2008 3:10:49 PM
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[quote][b]Posted by:[/b] Domino Theory 2 Wouldn't giving a heavier weighting on streaks make it worse? You can't expect everyone to get 50+ wins in a row once they hit a certain rank. TrueSkill simply needs to recognize a change in player skill within a handful of games, not 150+ games.[/quote]Currently it takes about 10 wins to go up one level on average for a player who has matured his account (low sigma). The only way for the system to currently detect a skill change is by the players sigma going up (after a large amount of unpredictable outcomes coupled with the small amount of sigma the system already adds back in prior to each of your games). I believe, because of info posted on the MS website and viewing players stats, it takes between 50-100 games for the system to detect a significant skill change. It is my theory that having the system use another variable to adjust sigma up at a quicker rate then it currently happens would allow it to detect skill changes quicker and give it more resolution (not take as many games) than it currently has. What that variable should be is THE point of contention. I believe streaks could be used but others have pointed out that streaks can have no significant relevance in statistics. I still believe they can be relevant given the fact the skill system is "trying" to prevent you from winning by matching you up against players of increasing skill as you win.
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