[quote][b]Posted by:[/b] Jay120171
[quote][b]Posted by:[/b] Baaaaaaaaaaaaah
You sure about that one Jay? Based on the formulas, the only way I could see you raise sigma is by never losing period. I know with the playlist update yesterday they might have tweaked something, but otherwise I am at a loss as to how this could happen. Microsoft outright said they don't take streaks into account.
Sorry if I missed some new info recently.[/quote]There is some new info available by going to the Inside Bungie menu item up there and selecting Publications. They have a PowerPoint on MM in H3. There is some info about what Bungie did to modify TrueSkill. One item of interest was the fact they used a 'performance modifier' to prevent people from ever reaching convergence and allowing their skill to remain fluid. I am guessing by increasing the amount of sigma that gets added back in during each game.
They also stated that the first 50-100 games of a playlist have their skill updates factored down. This will slow skill progression and give the player a 'hill climbing' experience. Similar to what is/was done to mixed skilled parties.
Also, it's not that streaks are taken in to account but the fact someone is on a winning streak is an indicator or them winning games the system thinks they shouldn't - unpredictable. Also, MS states that once you reach convergence, it will take a large amount of games (100 or more) for the system to recognize an increase in your ability and then allow you to level up. This statement shows that it is possible to get your sigma higher which would then allow your skill level to become fluid again. In other words, your sigma would go up, the MM system would then get you in some 'key match-ups' where you can get a big MU boost if you win, etc. So, we have Bungie preventing convergence already (assume by using sigma), a possibility you can increase your sigma anyway and a player winning games they shouldn't be.
Then again, I could be totally wrong and full of BS :)[/quote]
I finally got a chance to read the PPT Presentation. Very interesting...thanks for letting me know about it.
Some of the things we always suspected were finally factualized:
-ties increase rank
-19% of players stopped playing after 20 games...causing left skew in distribution
-k=4
I'm really wondering what they did to the system in this past playlist update....seems like they may have messed with the dynamics factor.
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