[quote][b]Posted by:[/b] Jay120171 Yes, I assumed a player winning 8 in a row would have a higher sigma because the system figures they should lose once in a while but I cannot find a direct quote to prove it and this is the assumption we were all making. You are saying that a person winning 8/2 should be the same skill as a person going 4/1 & 4/1but there is no direct evidence to prove that is correct or incorrect and I think you will settle for nothing less.[/quote] i cannot come up with any reason to suppose that streakiness is a factor in the ranking system. i cannot find any passages from microsoft to explain this element being present in trueskill, and i cannot imagine how such a trait could be used (but, my statistical intuitions and creativity are highly limited, so i am not claiming that it cannot be done). given what i know about bayesianism, i cannot imagine how streaks of any kind could affect how confidence levels could be influenced by looking for patterns in the order of wins and losses relative to one another. match results of each and every match will influence how the rank system assigns degrees of belief concerning player skill levels, and i literally cannot imagine how they would implement measures to evaluate streaks, let alone assign different weights to the many different possible kinds of streaks. i am not demanding or expecting anything, but i am curious. my guess (and this is mere conjecture) is that streakiness is not a factor in the ranking system. you and the thread creator seem to understand the system completely and can grasp how different elements of the trueskill system affect ranks in different ways, so i am eager to know if either of you have any concrete reasons to suppose that streakiness is a factor.