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1/12/2012 5:48:21 AM
7
Glassing in Reach; A contradiction with the Datapads.(long, technical)
Right, this post may be somewhat long, but bear with me.
[u]Quote in contention:[/u]
[quote]Datapad 10
(2526) "A single Covenant capital ship (CCS-class) is capable of 'glassing' approximately one acre of a planet's surface after an average of fifteen seconds of sustained fire."
"Earth, one of the smaller planets inhabited by our creators, has one hundred and thirty billion acres of surface area. Thus, assuming the Covenant possesses a number of ships equal to that of the UNSC, and assuming that all of those ships are capable of generating and discharging the required power non-stop for the duration of the process, it would necessitate the combined efforts of their ships in toto for a minimum of 30.3801 years to 'glass' the entire surface of Earth. Myriad other variables which were not applied to this equation suggest this number would be far greater."[/quote]
[u]Hypothesis:[/u] The AI's calculation is suspect, as it does not fit well with other canon information, both in Reach and in other media.
Source Material:
[b]Primary evidence (Reach: New Alexandria):[/b]
[url]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rtSN9bx0P0[/url]
[url]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nl6VJyvI398[/url]
Image One
[url]http://i1149.photobucket.com/albums/o598/Fin5434p/reach_25651120_Full.jpg[/url]
Image Two
[url]http://i1149.photobucket.com/albums/o598/Fin5434p/reach_25651103_Full.jpg[/url]
Image Three
[url]http://i1149.photobucket.com/albums/o598/Fin5434p/reach_25651102_Full.jpg[/url]
Image Four
[url]http://i1149.photobucket.com/albums/o598/Fin5434p/reach_25651117_Full.jpg[/url]
Image Five
[url]http://i1149.photobucket.com/albums/o598/Fin5434p/reach_25651118_Full.jpg[/url]
Image Six
[url]http://i1149.photobucket.com/albums/o598/Fin5434p/reach_25651115_Full.jpg[/url]
Image Seven
[url]http://i1149.photobucket.com/albums/o598/Fin5434p/reach_25651128_Full.jpg[/url]
Image Eight
[url]http://i1149.photobucket.com/albums/o598/Fin5434p/reach_25651137_Full.jpg[/url]
Image Nine
[url]http://i1149.photobucket.com/albums/o598/Fin5434p/reach_25651145_Full.jpg[/url]
Image Ten
[url]http://i929.photobucket.com/albums/ad135/A_Puzzled_Mind/Reach_glass1.jpg[/url]
(not mine)
[u][b]Further evidence, Reach:[/b][/u]
[url]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbvihWBj-bo[/url]
[quote] Datapad 14
(2530) "
>> Harvest, Green Hills, Second Base, Bliss, Madrigal, X Ceti, Cote d'Azure, Asmara...
Four short years of hostilities and no fewer than eight colony worlds have been lost - losses that represent 62,154,022 creator fatalities as of 2530:01:01:00:00:01-ZT. >>
>> My fellow Minds, these numbers are tragic and unacceptable, even though they fall within projected estimates of losses over time. And they have grave implications for our creators' future prospects. >>
>> Assessment of re-terraforming efforts for Harvest, Second Base, Bliss, and Cote d'Azure range from a conservative one hundred and ten years to over three hundred years - and that assumes our creators still possess sufficient manpower and technology after the current hostilities have concluded.
Given where we are today... that seems unlikely. >>
>> Therefore, it is the decision of the Majority that we re-examine all contingencies for avoiding failure. In defiance of principle and precedent, this body must expand its criteria for survival in the current world state. We must ensure that all future simulations are free of internal data-censoring and covariate flattening. >> " [/quote]
[u][b]Supporting evidence[/b], Reach, other Halo games:[/u]
[url]http://www.halopedian.com/images/0/0c/Fall_of_Reach_1.jpg[/url]
[url]http://images.wikia.com/halo/images/e/ed/Halo3_E3_TRAILER_2007_720p30_ST_6300Kbps_002_0001.jpg[/url]
[url]http://images.wikia.com/halo/images/e/e8/Portal_odst.png[/url]
[url]http://images1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20090526190119/halo/images/thumb/2/26/Covenant_Destroyers_Glass_Harvest.jpg/800px-Covenant_Destroyers_Glass_Harvest.jpg[/url]
[url]http://www.bungie.net/Stats/Reach/FileDetails.aspx?fid=13751132[/url]
[url]http://www.bungie.net/Stats/Reach/FileDetails.aspx?fid=6652705[/url]
[url]http://www.bungie.net/Stats/Reach/FileDetails.aspx?fid=5780466[/url]
[url]http://www.bungie.net/Stats/Reach/FileDetails.aspx?fid=9261224[/url]
[url]http://www.bungie.net/Stats/Reach/FileDetails.aspx?fid=20826592&player=Fin[/url]
[url]http://www.bungie.net/Stats/Reach/FileDetails.aspx?fid=20826567&player=Fin[/url]
[url]http://www.bungie.net/Online/Halo3UserContentDetails.aspx?h3fileid=119186756[/url]
[url]http://www.bungie.net/Online/Halo3UserContentDetails.aspx?h3fileid=95581296[/url]
[url]http://www.bungie.net/Online/Halo3UserContentDetails.aspx?h3fileid=102293904[/url]
[b][u]Discussion of evidence:[/u][/b]
The AI's claim of "1 acre in 15 seconds" is contradicted by the in-game evidence present in [i]New Alexandria[/i], where we see an area much greater than this (based on the 860m width of a CCS-Class, estimated to be 100-200 acre range) being 'glassed' in 8 seconds.
The AI's themselves also call the validity of this calculation into question in [b]Datapad 14[/b], where they list 8 colonies that have been so heavily damaged by orbital bombardment that they would take over a hundred years (or over three hundred) to make them liveable again. [b]If their initial estimate-made four years prior-was correct, then the Covenant could only have damaged 13.3% of a [i]single world's surface[/i]. Assuming they had over two thousand ships on-station and firing at all times.[/b]
This 2,000+ capital ship fleet is far larger than any we ever see, glassing anything or not, the closest fleet to this number is the defence fleet around High Charity.
The AI's also outright admit that previous data may have been biased: "We must ensure that all future simulations are free of internal data-censoring and covariate flattening." So it would appear they have realised their error, and are attempting to correct it.
[b][u]Firepower estimate, from AI calculation[/u]:[/b]
Assumptions;
Material: Silica SiO2, Specific Heat Capacity 0.703kJ kg^-1 K^-1, Melting point 1998K, Density 2648kg m^-3.
(Used because it is common, and has a lower Specific heat than asphalt, concrete, brick, granite, sand, or soil. It's to get a conservative estimate.)
Area: 1 acre, 4048.78m^2
Depth: 63.63M
Delta T: 1705K
Ignoring phase-change energy as assuming heating to MP only (to give a conservative estimate).
Calculation:
Volume of heated SiO2 = 2.55*10^-4 km^3
Mass of SiO2 = 255072.9 X 2648
= 6.754*10^8 kg
Energy = m c (delta)T
= 6.754*10^8 X 0.703 X 1705
= 8.096*10^11 kJ
Divide by time (15 seconds) = 5.397*10^10 kJ s^-1
Since 1kT equivalent of TNT = 4.184*10^9 kJ the estimate from the AI's figure is [u]12.9 kT per second.[/u]
[b][u]Firepower estimate, (low-end) from New Alexandria[/u]:[/b]
Assumptions;
Material: Silica SiO2, Specific Heat Capacity 0.703kJ kg^-1 K^-1, Melting point 1998K, Density 2648kg m^-3.
(Used because it is common, and has a lower Specific heat than asphalt, concrete, brick, granite, sand, or soil. It's to get a conservative estimate.)
Area: 100 acres, 404877.69m^2 (See image ten, the area heated is wider than 860m, I am assuming a 636.3m width for a conservative figure.)
Depth: 63.63M
Delta T: 1705K
Ignoring phase-change energy as assuming heating to MP only (to give a conservative estimate).
Calculation:
Volume of heated SiO2 = 0.02576 km^3
Mass of SiO2 = 25762367.41 X 2648
= 6.822*10^10 kg
Energy = m c (delta)T
= 6.822*10^10 X 0.703 X 1705
= 8.177*10^13 kJ
Divide by time (8 seconds) = 1.022*10^13 kJ s^-1
Since 1kT equivalent of TNT = 4.184*10^9 kJ the estimated firepower is [u]2442.9 kT per second, or 2.4 MT per second[/u]
[b][u]Firepower estimate, (area closer to observed size) from New Alexandria[/u]:[/b]
Assumptions;
Material: Silica SiO2, Specific Heat Capacity 0.703kJ kg^-1 K^-1, Melting point 1998K, Density 2648kg m^-3.
(Used because it is common, and has a lower Specific heat than asphalt, concrete, brick, granite, sand, or soil. It's to get a conservative estimate.)
Area: ~200 acres, 810000m^2 (See image ten, the area heated is wider than 860m, I am assuming a 900m width in this calculation.)
Depth: 100M
Delta T: 1705K
Ignoring phase-change energy as assuming heating to MP only (to give a conservative estimate).
Calculation:
Volume of heated SiO2 = 0.081 km^3
Mass of SiO2 = 81000000 X 2648
= 2.145*10^11 kg
Energy = m c (delta)T
= 2.145*10^11 X 0.703 X 1705
= 2.571*10^14 kJ
Divide by time (8 seconds) = 3.214*10^13 kJ s^-1
Since 1kT equivalent of TNT = 4.184*10^9 kJ the estimated firepower is [u]7680.7 kT per second, or 7.7 MT per second[/u]
PLEASE NOTE: All of the above estimations are conservative in nature as they do not account for energy lost to inefficiencies, do not include the energy required to actually melt the silica (just heat it to melting point-no latent heat of fusion calculation was carried out), and are based on the lowest common denominator material for specific heat capacity.
The New Alexandria calculations do not consider depth melting greater than 1/9th of the surface diameter, while the calculation for the AI estimate assumes a 1/1 relation.
[Edited on 01.11.2012 9:58 PM PST]
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[quote][b]Posted by:[/b] ninjakenzen Halo has ships that can destory planets[/quote] Can you please tell me which forerunner ship can [b]single handedly[/b] destroy a planet? This is the first time i have heard of this.
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Most of that is Forerunner technology... [quote][b]Posted by:[/b] ninjakenzen Halo has ships that can destory planets, apes that can turn invisible, weapons that can wipe life in the galaxy out. Light-bulbs with hidden agendas and a single human who can't die no matter what[Until maybe H6} thanks to canon sheilding. And you want to prove that there are inconsistancies with mathmatical calculations in a science-fiction universe where physics takes 2nd place to gameplay. I admire your efforts, but LOL. [b]This is probably the most keenest redundant thread in BU history.[/b][/quote] Instead op covered (a calc that has been beaten to death in every single vs debate) an inconsistancy in [Contemporary Halo] Reach. Still lowballed the Covenant.
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[quote][b]Posted by:[/b] Tempus Irae [quote][b]Posted by:[/b] ninjakenzen Halo has ships that can destory planets, apes that can turn invisible, weapons that can wipe life in the galaxy out. Light-bulbs with hidden agendas and a single human who can't die no matter what[Until maybe H6} thanks to canon sheilding. And you want to prove that there are inconsistancies with mathmatical calculations in a science-fiction universe where physics takes 2nd place to gameplay. I admire your efforts, but LOL. [b]This is probably the most keenest redundant thread in BU history.[/b][/quote] Redundant use of the word redundant is redundant.[/quote] Sorry may I use it's synonym: unnecessary. I think that word is relevant for your drivel.
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[quote][b]Posted by:[/b] ninjakenzen Halo has ships that can destory planets, apes that can turn invisible, weapons that can wipe life in the galaxy out. Light-bulbs with hidden agendas and a single human who can't die no matter what[Until maybe H6} thanks to canon sheilding. And you want to prove that there are inconsistancies with mathmatical calculations in a science-fiction universe where physics takes 2nd place to gameplay. I admire your efforts, but LOL. [b]This is probably the most keenest redundant thread in BU history.[/b][/quote] Redundant use of the word redundant is redundant.
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Halo has ships that can destory planets, apes that can turn invisible, weapons that can wipe life in the galaxy out. Light-bulbs with hidden agendas and a single human who can't die no matter what[Until maybe H6} thanks to canon sheilding. And you want to prove that there are inconsistancies with mathmatical calculations in a science-fiction universe where physics takes 2nd place to gameplay. I admire your efforts, but LOL. [b]This is probably the most keenest redundant thread in BU history.[/b]
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It is not a contradiction, it is an AI's opinion/ theory. He can be lying/wrong.
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[b][u]Conclusion:[/u][/b] Given that the AI's estimate is called into question by their later statements in datapad 14, and the in-game depiction of a limited glassing event in New Alexandria, I feel it should not be considered reliable. It is opposed by a very large amount of evidence in prior canon, and implicitly at least twice in Reach itself. [b]I feel this is enough evidence to say beyond reasonable doubt that the AI's estimate is suffering from a fundamental flaw, and should not be considered the 'gold standard' to which all other glassing events are measured (or as is almost universally the case, dismissed). [/b] Addendum: The question of "Blast effects" and why there are no mushroom clouds from these events has been raised, and I will briefly discuss it here: The blast effect of a nuclear bomb, or any explosive, is related to the pulsed power it is capable of at detonation. IE: how fast it can release its energy. This is typically fractions of a second, for nuclear weapons it is on the order of one microsecond (1*10^-6 seconds). The CCS-Class is releasing this energy over an entire second, and the higher estimate has a power of 3.2*10^16 Watts The Hiroshima bomb "Little Boy" was about 15kt, that is 6.276*10^13 J. It's blast time was 1 microsecond, (1*10^-6 s). Therefore its instantaneous pulsed power was 6.276*10^19 Watts. We can see that [i]Little Boy[/i] dropped over Hiroshima would have roughly a thousand times the blast potential of the CCS-Class's shot in this estimate. Given that result we might expect to see a shock front from the blast, and indeed we [i][b]do[/b][/i], but we would not anticipate seeing much of a mushroom cloud, or much seismic effect due to the blast. The energy is simply being released in a much more controlled manner. If you read all that, I appreciate it, Fin.
