{{
`${userDetail.user.displayName}${userDetail.user.cachedBungieGlobalDisplayNameCode ? `#${standardizeBungieGlobalCode(userDetail.user.cachedBungieGlobalDisplayNameCode)}` : ""}`}}
{{getUserClans()}}
9/22/2021 2:51:00 PM
44
Can (kind of) confirm quitting for a while helps raid exotic drop rate
Ex-scientist and current physician with extensive experience in statistics here.
There might be something to the hypothesis that players who quit for a while and come back or who do not play often have better drop rates for raid exotics. It took me and most of my clan 20 or so clears to get 1k back when LW dropped. My wife got it on her second clear and she never plays.
Last night my wife got vex on her second clear. We carried her through at only 1270ish. Meanwhile, other members of my clan who raid regularly have yet to see it drop. One guy got his on his 49th clear a while back and we still have multiple players with 20+ clears.
My wife and I are both doctors so we can usually set aside 1 or 2 nights a week to play nowadays. I use those nights to raid while she does strikes or whatever she wants really other than raiding. She has played with such regular irregularity for a few years now and her experience with raid exotic drops seems to be consistently excellent. Too excellent, in my opinion, to be simply luck.
If this is true, it feels almost punishing to those who make it a point to raid weekly. Essentially, the harder you work for something, the less likely you are for your time to be rewarded. I hope this isn’t actually a thing.
-
1 ReplyCurrent physician here: this post makes no sense and neither your scientific or medical qualifications hold any relevance.
-
12 RepliesEdited by TheArtist: 9/23/2021 11:52:22 AM“Regular irregularity”. 😁 They aren’t punishing you, it’s that their agenda is different from yours. You want a good return on your investment of (leisure) time and energy. They want to keep their hooks in you, and keep you playing. They already admit that they manipulate drop rates based on how often you play (“drop protection”) and are not transparent about how go about doing it. So they’re using classical conditioning. Give the infrequent player a taste of the game’s best rewards and the power they offer in order to entice them to play more often. “Welcome, here’s a nice big hit of dopamine…..” Use an unpredictable reinforcement schedule on the hardcore or regular player so that they keep coming back trying to get that [i]thing[/i] that just keeps eluding them. “Oh, you want that dopamine? Good luck finding it….” Which is toxic and manipulative. It’s why I don’t get on that hamster wheel of chasing raid exotics. It’s calculated to foster a compulsive, even addictive, approach to play. Which I refuse to support. So when I raid I play until I get the legendary rewards that I want…then I walk away. If the exotic drops, great. If not? I’m still out. It’s like gambling at a casino. You have to know went to get up and walk away from the table. Doubly so because the House [i]cheats.[/i] It’s exploitative… and I won’t play ball.
-
There’s nothing here that can lead you to that conclusion.
-
2 Replies[quote] Ex-scientist and current physician with extensive experience in statistics here. [/quote] How can this be true, and the you make this post?
-
6 Replies[quote]I hope this isn’t actually a thing.[/quote]It's not.
-
As much as I’ve long suspected your hypothesis to be correct, this is not a remotely scientific conclusion - which makes your preface all the more alarming. This is anecdotal evidence at best and if you really are a scientist, you’d be well aware of that.
-
1 ReplyWith extensive experience in statistics, you of all people should truly know what your n=2 analysis means.
-
Hadn’t played since a few months after deep stone crypt dropped. Started playing at the beginning of the season and got vex on first and second clears. Eyes of tomorrow finally dropped after 4 runs (since I got back (20ish total I think but maybe less)
-
Destiny has always worked as you suspect. Even years ago in D1 I recall missing a few days for some special event, such as a move. When I returned the rewards were greater. Career listings have also included understanding player psychology as a job requirement.
-
4 RepliesNot playing a while rewards you upon return. I also have found not playing a certain character for a bit helps them get new exotics crazy fast
-
3 RepliesI quit for a year, came back a few weeks ago and still don't have a vex.
-
2 RepliesI can confirm this did not play for 2-3 season and in 2 vog completions got vex so this I can for sure confirm
-
8 RepliesThe game is built on a gaming addiction model. Get them hooked to keep them playing, then reduce supply to keep them coming back. The guy who worked on the Destiny model wrote a paper on it which you can read on the internet. Manipulation at its finest.
-
17 RepliesEdited by Doku: 9/23/2021 2:14:30 AMIt doesn't. Welcome to confirmation bias. You have no idea what you're talking about and your claim is literally just personal superstition.
-
20 RepliesIt’s been known for years. If you take a week off, you will get the drop.
-
It’s all a guess until Bungie says otherwise. One theory is the “well rested” buff in some form is still a thing but you don’t see it on your character screen. So the buff might be a double or triple chance for exotics to drop if you don’t play for 2 weeks. You have a better chance to get an exotic world drop in a strike, nightfall, patrol, etc. This buff lasts until you get an exotic drop. If you rest a character and then play it for just the raid then the guaranteed roll chance for say Vex/Anarchy/Eyes is now buffed. The speculation or guess is vex has a drop rate of 1.5-3%. If the rested buff is a thing then your chance is now 4.5-9%. So long as you only do the raid once a week and nothing else then that buff stays in effect. Again all a guess and theory. Could be BS. For me I’ve learned a raid then rested two characters and I’ve gotten raid exotics in 1-2 weeks. Take the Vex. I knew the raid so rested two characters. First run on my Titan which wasn’t rested I got nothing. Played 2 week rested warlock and nothing. On third attempt on 2 week rested Hunter I got vex. Yes it could easily be confirmation bias but if this has worked for me then l keep doing it until it doesn’t work. But so far only my rested characters have gotten raid exotics. One thing I don’t believe is bungie puts a debuff on players who play a lot. That’s just dumb. It makes more sense to get people hooked to play by rewarding them in the beginning and keep them playing. So makes more sense for people who leave for 2 weeks or 2 months or a year will get a buff to get an exotic to keep them playing more. Until Bungie says otherwise we are all guessing.
-
5 RepliesSenior software developer here, this is definitely a thing. Bungie's RNG is far from random. I have played the entirety of D1 and D2 and can say without a doubt that Bungie uses exotic drops to lure casual players to play more and keeps them away from the more active players to keep them grinding for something. I can't tell you how many times I sherpa'd new players and watched them get the raid exotic on their first clear. They do a few things with exotics that I feel is unnecessary and doesn't respect the time people put into the game. The constant buffs and nerfs have made pretty much every exotic feel less than exotic. People would still go after new exotics regardless, so nerfing old ones into the vault is unnecessary and greatly limits loadout diversity. Every exotic should either be behind a mission like Whisper and Outbreak, or behind raid puzzles like Divinity. You could even have it in the final raid chest to purchase for spoils. At least give people a solid target to aim for. Over 20 looted clears and no Vex feels terrible, especially this season where the artifact is full of fusion mods.
-
Would it be really unexpected if you quit playing for a while and upon returning you're been blessed with RNG'sus briefly so you hook up with Deadstiny again?? I can totally believe that is the way it works, no pun intended to the dev team for exploding one's addiction, basically manipulating you to play what you want to play.
-
Can confirm the gun does drop eventually. Lucky number was 62 clears
-
4 RepliesIf you had the background you claim, you’d know these personal anecdotes have zero statistical relevance. You know how you can tell an infomercial is peddling snake oil? It’s hosted by an MD and relies on testimonials instead of studies to demonstrate results.
-
You can’t “kind of” confirm something 🤣
-
Haven’t been playing much. Ran the Astral and got the Catalyst. Immediately turned the game off. Not rewarding enough. Two can play this game…
-
Same thing happens to people in my clan that quit and come back. They’re rng magically becomes amazing.
-
I think it's true. I've done a fair amount of sherpas and it's like a 50/50 chance the guy that hasn't played destiny in a few months gets the raid exotic. This happend on Last Wish, Scourge, and Crown, and the absent player got the exotic before I did when I was running it 3 times a week.
-
I always get mad loot after I take a break. 🤷♂️
-
I've been trying this out but no luck yet.. although I was that annoying person that got 1k after 1 queens walk -_- after not playing as much for awhile so I do see something in that ..congratulations to yoor wife xD
