So this is just my idea for what would have happened if Zavala agreed with Ikora and miraculously conjured the resources to send a large guardian force to the Reef.
Zavala made the wisest choice when looking at military history. Okay, stopping us or not aside, even if the city had the resources, “taking the Reef by storm” as Ikora put it, would go horrifically. Just take a look at the Great Disaster. If you want real world references, we can take a look at Vietnam or the “War on Terror”. I’m not going to state my stance I’m merely going over what happened. The historical context is in the spoiler. *edit* Please note that this is how I predict it would have gone
[spoiler] The United States invaded Iraq in 2003 and while Iraq’s government was taken fairly quickly for a war like that, many MANY problems sprung up. Strategically, the Americans were in a very hostile and dangerous environment. It was unclear who was the enemy. The same thing happened in Afghanistan. While I am DRASTICALLY oversimplifying it, many terrorist and rebel cells sprung up after this and began to destabilize the region. This was partly due to the Middle East already being unstable. The American presence heavily influenced this. Hence the 2010 Spring Revolt occurred. To this day, the region is still unstable and hostile, with the conflicts becoming increasingly unpopular in the West.
[/spoiler]
The Vanguard would face a similar situation to the United States when it invaded Iraq in 2003. The Tangled Shore is technically still Awoken territory. Similar to the Wild West in the 19th century in terms of lawlessness. The Awoken would be furious as this would technically be an invasion of their territory. The Spider would certainly not help and would probably fight the Vanguard. The Awoken would possibly take up arms as they had a deal with Spider but their role would be unclear.. As for the Scorn? The Vanguard would certainly catch Uldren at SOME point but I wouldn’t be surprised if it were to wind up playing out like Osama bin Laden’s case; Thousands of lives lost, years of fighting, more instability, and years of fighting after the war.
I’ll make it a little more simple.
Phase 1.) Guardians land on the Tangled shore and immediately begin to push their way through the Reef. There are heavy casualties but the Guardians manage to establish a heavy presence like NATO has. This move shocks the system as it wasn’t expected. Uldren’s plans are forced to halt for the time being.
Phase 2.) The surviving Reefborn Awoken would be in a stare of mass hysteria. Many will call to fight back. If Petra does this, it will result in a loss for the Awoken but will hinder the Vanguard’s movement by a significant margin compared to before. If Petra chooses not to fight, it is very likely that over time, she will lose support no matter how zealous they are about their Queen’s orders. Remember, you can only obey a dead individual for so long. (At this point, Mara was believed to be dead.) Either way, Phase 3 is unchanged.
Phase 3.) The remains of the Awoken Empire will completely collapse no matter what Petra does. Petra will lose support and the Reef officially becomes lawless. Many Awoken will group up with Eliksni and possibly the Scorn to fight the Vanguard. Many small cells and factions will form. The Spider’s power is nonexistent at this point if he hasn’t been killed.
Phase 4.) “The Silent Yet Deadly Period”. At this point, the heavy fighting would be over and casualties on all sides would occur at a much slower rate. Of course, this is where things also get really bad for the Vanguard. At this point, with the hunt for Uldren going painfully slow, things would get bad for them publicly. With the war, let’s call it the: “Second Reef War.”, not showing good results, the consensus will most likely start demanding that the force leaves the system. The Guardian presence begins to diminish but is not gone.
Phase 5.) Uldren is eventually found and killed, and the remnants of the Scorn will continue to go on sprees of violence across the system. Acts of terror are not uncommon, and the Reef will remain highly unstable and war torn for decades. Over time guardian presence completely disappears and the Second Reef War just goes down in history as another failed military campaign.
Hope you guys like it. If you disagree with me, feel free to let me know your opinion. I’d love to hear your input so that maybe I can update this post one day to make it more accurate!
-
3 RepliesI'm not fond of Cmdr. Zavala, but I agree that his decision to refrain from assaulting the Reef was a wise one. However, it can be argued that the Uldren problem needed to be addressed, one way or the other. Out of curiosity, what should we have done about Al Queda after 9-11? Waited for them to hit us again, like we did after the first WTC attack in 1993 (that attack killed less than a dozen people; 9-11 killed 2900)? Or just incinerated the Taliban headquarters with a nuke, then rebuilt the WTC site? A civilized world and Al Queda cannot coexist.