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11/14/2017 9:35:32 AM
253
Exotic repeat odds defy logic
First I have the game on PS4 and PC, logging in about ten days played. On PC, I have opened around 35 Exotic engrams. Thirteen have been one item (the Prospector). That is 37%. The odds of this are so minute it isn't possible without a bug or it being engineered into game. RNG my A.S.S With a true RNG, there are roughly 25 items (guns and armor). That gives you a 4% chance to get an item. Since there is always 25 in the pool the 4% will never change. Say you want item x. Opening 20 engrams gives you a 55% chance of getting it.
30=70%
40=80%
50=87%
60=91%
70=94%
calculated by a 96% chance of not getting it. 0.96 to the power of x (x being how many engrams) minus 1 then times -100 ex: 20 engrams 0.96^20=0.442 0.442-1=-0.557 -0.557x-100=55.7% chance to get x item in 20 engrams
So getting 13 of the same item is almost impossible. LOL but it happened
As a side note:
I play the hunter and have farmed for the O rig legs on both platforms. Have done over 1,000 public events most heroic and have only gotten them once. Tracked PC events for the last 200. Only included heroic events and two fire team medallions running. There was a 6.5% drop rate of exotics. That is 13 in 200 events. While the sample size is small and I may have been very very unlucky it can give you an idea of how others are doing.
Good luck to all on the grind.
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Exactly. My only exotic I was after was Dunemarchers. Don’t ask me why, I know they don’t even work, but I always wanted them in D1. I open endless engrams and can’t get it. I could get 6 Doomfang’s in a row though. My friends get it easily and have duplicates. Just last week I finally get it. Open another engram the next day and get it again. There is no random in their RNG. I swear it’s weighted, time gated, and different for every player. Lol
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There’s a YouTube video of a guy saving up a bunch exotic engrams and turning them in all at once and it was all boots. Every single one was boots lol
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5 RepliesJust go back to the D1 system. I hate that 2 months in and I have nearly every single exotic or every single one. They used to be hard to get. I came in late year one and didn't get my first exotic until TTK. Make us grind for them. Make them have a purpose. Most days when I play I don't even have on equipped. If I do it's a piece of armor.
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I've found sometimes that two legendary engrams decrypted next to each other give me the exact same thing which suggests the RNG has some quirks to it...
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I love getting the Young Ahamkara's Spine and Raiden Flux while I have yet to get a Orpheus Rig or Nighthawk :)
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19 RepliesYou clearly don’t understand the “R” in RNG. You see, based upon a true random occurrence, you could open 100 exotic engrams and they could all be identical. Please stop
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3 RepliesRNG: Random number generator Random: Made, done, happening or chosen without method or conscious decision. By definition, this means there is no chance or % involved. It is something that has no method or probability involved.
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From the first week of D1 I have been saying that RNG is bull crap. In D1 I ran Crota every week 3 characters and I got the black spindle 1 week before they nerfed it. It was my white whale, there’s no way as you have pointed out that it was possible to go that long without a drop. One day BUNGO will tell the truth, but RNG is total crap. They keep you hooked with a rigged system. Welcome to the grind!
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Yeah this game sucks
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Destiny RNG is not a real random. It just a Fake RNG that Bungie uses to control player progression. There are some gears/guns that every player will not get. They hold those items to force players to play the same contents over and over. Its not just Exotic..things like Factions Guns/armors.
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I usually end up logging out directly after decrypting exotics as a result of dupes. Decrypting three Doom Fang Pauldrens in a row just sucks the will to play right out of me. I haven’t even logged into D2 in almost two weeks. I guess I’m pretty much done with Destiny. I also still can’t believe that they pulled a bait and switch on us by NOT improving on D1 and instead deciding to produce a watered down version of just about every average game made in the last ten years.
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Screw exotics. The only items I want right now are the freaking Titan gauntlets from Shaxx. I've gotten at least 3 to 4 duplicates of EVERY. OTHER. PIECE. Not ONE copy of the gauntlets. It's a freaking joke. It's like...how could they possibly have made the loot system [i]WORSE[/i] than the first game!?
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1 ReplyEdited by minonious: 11/14/2017 9:42:48 PMI saved 4 exotic engrams trying to get the last piece of armor I need on my titan. 1 was a coldheart, 3 were crest of alpha lupi,.. while I was wearing the crest of alpha lupi. That shit is broke.
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2 RepliesXur will sell it eventually and the Exotics aren't really all that good. 2 of my characters have no exotic anything on. If they do its Vigilance Wing or Sunshot.
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1 ReplyI've often wondered if it's the case that at certain times of the day individual items have their drop weight increased. While I have never sat down and actually tracked my drops I definitely seem to get more duplicates on top of each other while opening bulk engrams. I've also seen it happen A lot to clan mates I'm grouped with.
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4 RepliesYea what he said, WHERES my antiope D.
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SquidGuy defies logic. SquidGuy is number one. A f#cking BEAST!!!!!!
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Whilst I agree that Bungie sucks, I believe your statistics are flawed. You do not account for the fact that you are one of many hundreds of thousands of players. So the chance that at least 1 of those hundreds of thousands of players gets that unlucky is probably more within the realm of possibilites. You just happen to be the unluckiest bloke out there.
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That sucks, but at the same time, the events are mutually exclusive. Is there a system in place that increase the chance of getting an exotic you don’t have? Even if so, the chances are there, and they are independent events. But yeah. My 7 nighthawks are a little upset at the fact I still don’t have mask of the quiet one.
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Stop complaining about it and just either infuse it into something or dismantle.
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at this point, pretty much any exotic that drops will be a repeat though =)
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1 ReplyEdited by Touchdown FSU13: 11/14/2017 9:21:33 PM
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5 RepliesYou did the math wrong. No offense. .96^20=0.442?/0.442-1%=-0.557 -0.557x-100=(Infinite chance to not get the item) Would be better if after you get an item that in collection you can't get it again.
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I just want to point out that you can say ass bitch and Dick and what not but not the F bomb... that "A.S.S." sorta made me chuckle
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you don't even need to break out the calculator to know that their algorithm for the RNG is messed up. getting the same thing multiple times (5+ times in a row) with a sample size of atleast 20 is just crazy. Even if each engram is a separate probability case. It would be like getting the same number in roulette for 5 times in a row. the odds of it happening even though each spin is separate is just crazy.
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2 RepliesI thought they "fixed" this with KF drops in TTK. Looks like they forgot to copy/paste those lines of code. derp
