I have opened 70 crucible packages and none of them had a longbow. Just 6 guns I instantly dismantled.
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Waiting 6 months for TLW and NLB to drop only to get them both in the same day from exotic engrams. Other than that I always had the "noob luck". Got 2 fatal visions, 3 longbows and Vienna Singer dropped on the first successfull attempt at getting the Black Spindle.