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Edited by FrenetiCreature: 5/12/2016 11:03:15 PM
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Crucible Games Predetermined?

Now, I'm not really what you'd call a "Conspiracy Theory type guy", but I did use to work as a police officer, before my accident. In that line of work, you're trained to notice things, patterns or things out of the ordinary. Well, I've played my fair share of Crucible matches, and then some. Throughout my time playing, I've noticed that there seems to be a trend in the outcome of the matches. Some of you may have noticed this also. Have you ever noticed how, in some matches, it seems like no matter how well you aim or what weapons you use, the other guys are just able to outshoot you; But then, in other matches, you'd literally have to sit down in the middle of the map and not shoot your gun at all in order to go negative? The funny thing is, sometimes the guys that are so easy to kill are the ones that did so well on your team last match, while maybe the guys who did poorly on the other team last match, but are totally wrecking on your team this time? Also, have you ever noticed that everybody's connection bar jumps around during the matches, going from green to yellow, back to green, then to red, back to green? Yet, Bungie is always so "tight lipped" about their matchmaking and always blames any kind of connection issues on the players' set-up, even though most of us have absolutely no problems with any other online games. And the biggest tend that I've noticed is that the outcome of matches almost always follow the same exact pattern. Similar to this: [u]Alpha Team[/u] Player 1 - 25 kills, 2.0 k/d Player 2 - 15 kills, 0.9 k/d Player 3 - 13 kills, 0.8 k/d Player 4 - 8 kills, 0.5 k/d Player 5 - 5 kills, 0.6 k/d Player 6 - 2 kills, 0.2 k/d [u]Bravo Team[/u] Player 1 - 21 kills, 1.75 k/d Player 2 - 20 kills, 1.80 k/d Player 3 - 17 kills, 3.0 k/d Player 4 - 12 kills, 1.25 k/d Player 5 - 10 kills, 0.9 k/d Player 6 - 9 kills, 0.8 k/d It's almost always like that. One team will have a player at the top with a bunch of kills and a good k/d, while the rest of the teams scores are crap. The other team will have the top four players with really decent scores and the bottom two will be... meh, but not horrible. It's like this almost every game, even though it's all the same players switching back and forth between teams, being mixed up each time. Doesn't that seem weird to you? Just start really paying attentions to the scores after each game you play. I'm sure you'll start to notice the pattern too. My theory is this: There is a mechanism within the matchmaking that brings players of about the same skill level into each match. (I know, common knowledge right? SBMM, OK, I know, but...) During the match, the game can "[i]sense[/i]", how well each player is doing. Each player has a "predetermined" placing, where the game decides before the match, about what the players score should be after each match, in order to conform to the model that it deems appropriate. Like the score table I made above. So, if the game has decided that an Alpha Team player should place at about 4th place at the end of the match, but that player is playing well and is starting to score above where he should be, the game will drop that player's "connection" down into the yellow. That way that player stats experiencing lag. We all know what it's like when you start lagging. You get shot through walls, enemies eat your bullets, they teleport all around, they kill you in two shots, etc. This way, it makes it so that player's score goes back within the parameters that the game has chosen for that player. This would explain why sometimes you start out decent, but then all of a sudden, it's like no matter what you do, you can't get kills for anything; and why your connection varies so much, even though you have a wired connection with decent speeds. It would also account for why, sometimes it seems like everyone is playing so inconsistently. One game you're awesome, the next, you're playing like you're blind, even though it's against essentially the same people. It would actually explain a lot of things. As for the reason behind it, I'm not exactly sure. But, it could come down to something like, gratification. If you start out and you're doing well for the first few games, you're happy, you want to play more. The game keeps you at our near the top. Now that you're really in the mood to play, it starts dropping you down. You feel like maybe it's a fluke, but you want revenge. You play more to get back to the top. You keep getting dumped on. But, when you're just about to quit, all of a sudden there's no lag. Your shots land every time. Your enemies die like they should. You're happy again. You play more. This keeps you playing, just as Bungie wants. The more you play, the better it is for Bungie. Now, I'm just talking about regular 6v6 crucible matches here. I haven't played trials or many other modes enough to say anything about them. But maybe there is a system similar in those other modes. (Let me know if you've noticed anything.) Anyway, I could be completely wrong. Maybe I'm just too tired or thinking into it too much. But, the facts are, I've noticed this pattern in the scoring. I noticed it a while back and just thought it was weird. But, as a cop, you learn that there aren't such a thing as coincidences. Also, Bungie won't talk about their matchmaking process. And, whenever you have connection problems, they always answer, "Read the help page, clear your cache." It's the same answer every time. I know this isn't a really well thought out and written explanation of my theory, as its 5 am and I am pretty tired. But, hopefully it's enough that most of you will understand what I'm getting at. Let me know what you think and if you have any ideas or theories. Edit 1: Hey, thanks for all of the positive and mature replies guys. Of course there is always the occasional, "Get gud." Or "You're just trying to make excuses." Replies. I don't have thin skin, as a police officer it thickens up real quick. So, I just read those, shake my head and move on. I know why I'm negative on all of my characters. It's no secret that I just completely sucked and was learning to play with a bummed hand. Plus, I hadn't played a video game in almost 15 years when I started playing Destiny, back in November 2014. Plus, I always play solo/random. I never play with anyone else. Which makes having a positive k/d a lot tougher. The very few times that I have been on a Fireteam, it was like "Easy Mode". So I know. I have a negative k/d. It's no big revelation. But, if you look at my history and stats on Destinytracker.com, you'll see that my stats and k/d have steadily risen since I started. But, I'm about 4,000 kills in the negative. Even if I got a 2.0 k/d and an average of 30 kills every round. That's +15 kills every round. It would take me 266 matches to get positive. Plus, I play Control almost exclusively. Just check my stats. I'm not the best out there, but my current stats aren't pure sh!t either. Also, speaking of checking my history, you can see in my matches history even more evidence of what I'm talking about here. I'll have streaks where I play awesome for a handful of games and then you'll see where it turns to crap for a handful of games. It goes back and forth, even though it's against the same group of guys sometimes. You could blame it on just playing well, then not playing so well. But, I think that's too easy an explanation. One game all my shots from my "God Roll" Hawksaw just tear through everyone, like a hot knife through butter. But, then the next game every other shot misses or it takes 8 shots to kill somebody? 17 (body shot) x3 (rounds per pulse rifle shot) = 51. That's 51 damage per body shot from Hawksaw. 51 x 8 = 408. That's enough damage to kill two guardians. I count my shots when it starts to seem strange. Plus, I'm a little OCD and have a tendency to count anyway. Anyway, when it takes 8 Hawksaw shots to kill someone, something is wrong, very wrong. You could call it lag, and yes I would agree. But, why would it change from one match to the next, or during the same match sometimes. Even with the same group of people? One game I'm killing everyone in 3-4 shots, the next it takes 6-8 shots? Hmmmm, seems odd to me. Also, the "Host" idea, I find this to be very true. I can tell when I'm the host, because I'll be the one at the top of the leader board, with close to 30 kills and a 2.0+ k/d. But, then the next game I can barely get 6 kills with a 0.3 k/d. That's just ridiculous. It's so inconsistent. I think Bungie knows all about it. I think they use this to their advantage and it ties into the whole theory. And that's why they're so "tight lipped" and "politely unhelpful" when it comes to us complaining about lag and matchmaking.
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  • Absolutely agree I have noticed it myself! Now I don't consider myself the greatest player in the world but what I do consider myself is someone who is very competent in crucible and yet time and time again I will get games where I go from being at the top of the leaderboard to somehow coming last even though I know I'm not playing any different to when I was completely shredding beforehand! Personally this question needs to be forwarded to the game developers at there next game convention when they ask people for questions only then will they not be able to hide from something that is obviously going on in the game.

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  • Yup this is totally on point. Ive noticed this and always wondered if other people have noticed this aswell. Its all the sole purpose of you keep playing. Im sure they've done studies on people what drives them to keep playing and this is the results from those studies. Keeps us playing more, geez this is almost like mind control.

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    • Keep this alive

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      • I honestly have never seen anything in crucible to support this. I usually do pretty well most matches I play and rarely do horrible. I could be a outlier but I just dont think this could be a real thing.

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        • Inconsistent to say the least. Here's a typical scenario as I try to play a few hrs each night. [b][i][u]Game 1[/u][/i][/b] ---------------------------------------- - I have numerous "OMG I lived through that?" Moments - My whole match seems like a YouTube highlight montage - Hit detection feels awesome and crisp to say the least - I finish 16:1 while eating a chicken sandwich (more concentration on eating sandwich than playing) - I pick up a phantom (or two) not even realizing it - get a friendly message from someone on the other team saying "nice carry...lol" [spoiler]this was a legitimate match from the past week or two[/spoiler] [b][i][u]Game 2[/u][/i][/b] (immediately following Game 1/exact same lobby) ---------------------------------------- - Hit detection feels awful - It feels like I'm getting 2-shot by everything including blue scouts - I sometimes fall over without a sound - I get sniped dead before even seeing a scope - I get insta-killed just rounding a corner to the point I believe people must be pre-firing even snipers - I take a single hit and duck to cover, rejoice in making it there safe, then fall over 2 full seconds later - The match is full of "close calls", of which, not a single one is in my favor - I finish with something like a 0.57 while the dude who finished 0.38 last match has a 7.5 - My hands are sore from the death grip on my controller - My voice is shot from yelling across the house to my cat to let her know how bad I'm getting screwed (I play when no one is home) - I contemplate why I even play and think hard about not playing in the future In the 40+ matches I play each week, I can count on one hand the number of times I'm red or yellow bar. I hard wired my system. I forwarded my ports. I have it setup as an "Open NAT". If I play music I stream it off my phone set to data and not wifi. If I'm solo (90% of the time), any time I'm up against a fireteam of 2 or more I get the "game 2" scenario. If one of the two in the fireteam is redbar, he will either be at the top, or dead last while his buddy finishes 6.0. I often play people named "RickySpanish001", "xxVivaMexxx", and some dude named "PineappleFarmerzz", or something along those lines. Most have clan names in Spanish. [spoiler]I live nearly 2,000 miles away from Mexico in NY, and I'm not sure where they grow pineapples but they're not native here (it that is indeed a relevant name) [/spoiler]

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          • MOMENTUM

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          • I'm also super curious about something similar that I noticed in the last Iron Banner. I was in a handful of matches where the opposing teams were getting points seemingly out of nowhere. I would watch my kill feed on the side - there were hardly any deaths of my teammates, and they were slaughtering the other team, but the enemies would still cream us.

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          • I'll just put this out there: How many of you are about to fire on an opponent,usually with a shotgun...you hit the trigger but nothing happens,then get shot. It's like the game has to prioritize one of the two opposing players. It's rare but it DOES happen. Let me here your thoughts.

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            • What is life

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            • Your issue isn't it being predetermined, it's the connection to the server. Hit registration works like this. 1) You press the button on your controller. It then relays to the console to tell the game what action you should perform. 2) The game itself determines what action is performing, and performs that action on your screen. 3) In an online server, there is another step of delay that is connection based. The action then has to be sent through the server, where the server can then finalize the end action. This may lead to some shots ultimately being way off the mark as the server needs time to determine where and when you shot, and with that extra delay added on it can explain why you may see 8 headshots with no hit marker. So little 12-year-old Xx420_VapezzxX on the other team actually sees something different than you. That's why he is teabagging your corpse with a Universal Remote and you are raging.

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            • Ughhhh. I'm so lazy. Can you make tldr at the bottom please.

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              • Edited by Crazed0Clutch: 5/14/2016 3:24:26 PM
                The real conspiracy is how player 1 on alpha team had a 2.0 kd with an odd amount of kills

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                • TL;DR Nerf Fusion Rifles.

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                • First natch I played,boom! 5.5 K/D. Next match, 0.5 K/D. What!?

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                • 1
                  One main reason is just the order the hosts are migrated. Where there is no dedicated server the game jumps from player to player throughout the match. So if the other team has the majority of the host time they have an advantage. That also is why the connection bars will change for no reason. They represent the connection to hosts not to the actual game. Tl;dr Dedicated server for the win

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                  • [b]F[/b]uck the police.

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                    • Edited by Black Howling: 5/14/2016 3:01:24 PM
                      If you've gamed for enough years you can almost feel when something is off when you're playing , especially if it's one of your favorite genres. I've said time and again there is a lot of shady stuff going on in the crucible (ninja algorithms and such), and we all know that Bungivision only cares about the numbers - they already admitted to rigging matches in the name of "balance". Going on a kill spree then meeting One Shot Ted who won't take damage despite having a green bar, always being put on crappy teams four matches in a row against Team Doritos (I love those guys tbh), shot...through...walls...., spawning super late into unwinnable matches, etc. Activision is no stranger to rigging conspiracies in their PVP models. I'd bet money that at least some of this has truth to it.

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                      • You will find find a pattern in pretty much anything if you try hard enough. And I'd say this is not likely, however it is intriguing.

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                        • Edited by Willakkuma: 5/14/2016 1:20:10 PM
                          I'm sure most of it has been discussed here, but here's my .02 as a year one player with a lot of time in pvp, which I enjoy. - Bungie wants more folks staying engaged in pvp, [u]especially the new players[/u], because it's keeps them coming back and it's good for business. Pvp floats the boat between releases, in particular. This is the reason for all of the balancing/nerfs/match making changes. There's no way this pvp world would hold the interest of new players if they had to take hard knocks learning vs. experienced yr 1 players minus all of the balancing efforts. - Port sharing is of course one of the main issues with regard to connection. My understanding is ports change once every 140 seconds or so. This system isn't going to change. Period. It is what it is, usually not too much of a problem but yes issues are still there. Love it or leave it. - The closer you get to pvp pinnacles Trials and IB the more you encounter lag cheats, streamers, etc. This is a natural progression. Folks can choose to participate in these playlists or not. - As for pre-determination, from what I've seen SBMM will provide opportunities for filling bounties like "Top Score" or whatever it's called in IB where you obtain the high score in a match of the 12 players on both teams. I like IB and have done well there, but I can also tell within the flow of the matches when I have a better chance to get this one filled during the tournament (never have a problem getting it done). Sometimes it comes well before IB rank 4, and sometimes you can get it done multiple times. However, there is no guarantee you'll get Tops - you still have to execute. Another example would be Trials, where many players hit the well documented wall at 5-0 or 4-0, including myself. The algorithm's design to bring everyone that's not a member of the elite (that can dominate regardless of circumstances) toward a middle ground, will in fact take you into tougher matches via SBMM where your success rate has lower probability. When it gets to this point, more folks quit early = more of the short-sided teams and late spawn-ins. While there are other reasons for this (bounty fillers/hunters, connection drops, psn sign outs, etc) it's a part of reality. For these reasons, sometimes the late-spawns and early team quitters still work out favorably, and sometimes they don't. What I do - I've begun leaving for the day or half a day when it's apparent the algorithm decreases my probability for success. I try to go out on a high note. For example, if my match made teams have an 8 game win streak and I've had good individual success, I'll leave for the day after a loss or two consecutively. If I start the day slow for several games and things don't appear to be picking up I quit for the day or half day....but if wins and success start coming after a slow start I'll stay.

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                          • This is the best observation on Crucible matches I have read. To be sure we will need more data, but I have observed this pattern as well. I have a decent k/d and enjoy being matched up with harder opponents that challenge me and play fair. Which can be few and far between, but I digress. I have played Bungie games for years starting with Marathon on Mac. In all these years that I've played the multiplayer component of each I have observed a different pattern... Good players know what they are doing and are fun to fight. Pro players are hard to fight because they know the game and exploit every advantage they can get, sand cheating. Bad players or "noobs" usually are easy to kill and usually pad your k/d. Each of these different skill levels usually ties directly into who wins the match; top to bottom. The pattern is based on skill. Even when you mix up the players and put different people on different teams, individually it still plays out according to the same pattern of skill. Destiny, on the other hand rewards skill, what gun is faster, and who has their super, or it should... Instead in destiny even though there are more variables than some of Bungie's past games, the observable pattern IS different. It seems that hidden behind all these variables should be the same kind of game, but I see things irrelevant of skill or weapon type reflected on the score screen. Things I've noticed: -people with same load out being consistently inconsistent on k/d over a decent set of games, -really skilled people who have good k/d's consistently placing in the top and then the bottom of different matches when facing the same people with the same loadouts, -a series of games in which you are playing with the same people going from absolute "pwnage" to you being "pwned" by them in the next game and then vice versa irregardless of who is on your team, -shooting a noob point blank with a shotgun twice, and having them kill you in four shots from an AR disregarding latency and them winning the match because somehow they are now untouchable, -and more! I could go on all day, but I've never had such an odd multiplayer experience as in Destiny. If this random win factor is true, I can see why multiplayer has become so sweaty, as even with skill, the right gun, and a full super what should be a guaranteed placement in the top 2 ends up getting you stomped by players who pointed their weapons in your general direction and magically won the game...

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                            • New World Order Architects=illuminati

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                            • Illuminati confirmed.

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                            • What you just said, isnt specific to Destiny. It's ALL online games. How is that fixed? Dedicated servers. Which almost all game companies are to cheap to pay for. Same goes for Gears. There are some games where I half ass my shots and people blow up from 10 feet away no prob then some games I hit prrfect shots and nothing happens

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                            • I notice that when I destroy people in the crucible, usually I get a 1.4 - 3.5 kd. Then, after 5-8 matches, I get soo bad. Usually I get killed for the weirdest reasons or supers. Then I take a break from destiny for about 3-5 hours and when I come back just to kill time, I'm good again? Then after I get fed up with all the n00bish stuff.

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                              • I've noticed this too and it has been getting more obvious the past several months. I am about average to below average as a PVP player. I have either awesome matches where I feel near invincible or I can't kill anything. I always felt it was the Damage Ref screwing with the in-game flow. The Damage Ref intro seemed to meet up time wise with the issue getting worse. Great post by the way

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                              • The score board usually looks like this for me Player 1 - 25 kills, 25.0 k/d Player 1-5 - 0 .0 k/d [spoiler]i only play rumble, lol[/spoiler] [spoiler]in all seriousness, this is a great theory[/spoiler]

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