It's going to be a guaranteed 320 ghost, whether crimson or chocolate, that's a 50/50 chance.
Guaranteed 320 ghost =100%
-the "odds are in your favor" in this context is basically saying Bungie agrees that the drop rate has been too low, so this is something they will will make sure will happen if one fits within their simple criteria of finishing 7 games in Crimson Doubles.
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