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originally posted in:Collective Of Knowledge
Edited by Analytical Ghost:
11/24/2015 3:16:15 PM
23
Nightfall Data Analysis
So I decided to do an In-Depth analysis on the Random Number Generated Loot in Nightfalls, which came out to be an excellent project for the Taken King, Due to the new weekly Nightfall reward-ish bounty.
[spoiler]Warning, this was in HoW[/spoiler]
I found the individual data from 100 nightfalls, which is roughly from around 32-35 people. I would like to give thanks to the people who gave me their nightfall rewards for this post, you know who you are.
[b]
The data is as shown:[/b]
There are Five archetype of loot you can attain from a nightfall:
Exotics
Legendary Weapons
Legendary Engrams
Etheric Light
Strange Coins
You can not get legendary armor from a nightfall, this may change in TTK but likely not, Also I would like to say that exotic armor and weapons have no difference in drop chance, al though I did see a lot more weapons than armor.
Taking each section of the loot I counted each of 100 drops and tallied them into each section accurately.
[b]Each archetype scored as followed:
[/b]
Exotics: [b]38[/b]
Legendaries: [b]31[/b]
Strange Coins: [b]14[/b]
Etheric Light: [b]12[/b]
Legendary Engrams: [b]5 [/b]
I then took the base number (100) and divided each number by it, Then I took this decimal and turned into a percentage.
[b]This Percentage is the final drop rate chance of each archetype of loot:[/b]
Exotics: [b]38%[/b]
Legendary Weapons: [b]31%[/b]
Strange Coins: [b]14%[/b]
Etheric Light: [b]12%[/b]
Legendary Engrams: [b]5%[/b]
This final data shows that Exotics are the most common item from a nightfall, scoring over [i]1/3 loot drop chances[/i], meaning if you have three characters you will most likely get atleast [i]one exotic[/i].
On the other hand, legendary engrams are the rarest to get from a nightfall. With only a [i]5% Chance[/i] to get one.
I hope you may be able to use this data somewhere in a video, other data post, or other things
[i]
Thank you[/i]
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2 RepliesCan we do this for TTK?
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1 ReplyLol. Date
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1 ReplyNot entirely accurate. Need a (much) larger sample size. Besides. RNG is still random
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1 ReplyCool, [spoiler]clan bump[/spoiler] ---- hairflip
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1 ReplyOk now break down that and tell us the percentage of what was exotic armor or weapons also with the engrams
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1 ReplySometimes RNG can be very cruel Looking for a Hawkmoon This past week I did 3 nightfalls receiving 3 exotics back to back (Monte Carlo, 4th Horseman, Ice Breaker) All weapons, two Playstation exclusives. Helped out two buddies with their nightfall after I finished my third. One of them gets the hawkmoon. I know it's all random but the way the randomness aligned, it's like RNG just wanted to make me suffer.
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1 Reply
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2 RepliesLol, I got 2 engrams for 3 nightfalls.. I must be a lucky one then
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4 RepliesPrevents don't really matter though. It's still RNG :(
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1 ReplyI actually got another ghorn this week. I laughed at the irony.
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1 Replynice, we keep similar stats in our clan, I'll update them and post the post-HoW results here in the next days. At a glance our numbers are consistent within statistical uncertainties.
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2 RepliesHaven't got an exotic in 3 weeks.
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5 RepliesIt's a nice thing you're doing here, but you don't have enough input imo, 100 nightfalls isn't much! I'd suggest you do 3 threads all of them with polls, let's say "Nightfall run with character 1, 2, 3" and link them together. Would be easier, you would get more input/data, would be easier to calculate and the conclusion would be more reliable.
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1 ReplyGood to know. [spoiler]clan bump[/spoiler]
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3 RepliesI appreciate the effort here champ. But some of your hecklers have a point. Also your data assumes 100% honesty and accuracy on the results of your 32-35 and corresponding entrees. I think you went through and tried to do something positive for the community and I offer up respect for that. But my own singular experience tells me etheric light is the hardest to roll in nightfall which brings me to the point of RnG is RnG. You would have actually had to detail out each engram roll individually and not lump them all because I'm pretty sure they all have individual weight on roll chance just like individual exotics that drop, some have a higher drop rate then others. I rushed this on break so I apologize if clarity is of concern lol.
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3 RepliesId have bumped the strange coins up ic i took part 11, 12 and 12 last week so all 3 characters. 11 and 11 this week. Pretty much all i ever get
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1 ReplyInteresting, thanks!
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1 ReplySo I got 12 strange coins? That's rare....
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1 ReplyMega bump
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1 ReplyVery interesting results, I thought legendaries would be higher percentage.
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17 RepliesNot true I could prove with my data alone that Strange Coins and Legendary Engrams are the highest drop rate at over 60%. I've done it on two characters since about launch and 60% of the time it's those two.
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13 RepliesDid you construct a confidence interval for the data? No? Then you can't conclude anything. And where the different entries randomly selected?
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1 ReplyNice post!
