I'm studying math and computer science in college, so I thought I'd give analyzing Xur's drops a shot. This analysis is for Xbox. Playstation would have different stats. I did this in two ways: One: Assuming that DLC weapons are not weighted more heavily. Two: Calculating a "weight" for the DLC guns and recalculating probabilities accordingly. Out of 24 total visits, Xur has sold 5 DLC weapons and 19 NonDLC weapons. However, keep in mind that the DLC has been here for less than half of the time Xur has been selling - this makes it seem more likely that the DLC is weighted. One: Assuming DLC is not weighted (assume that every weapon follows the same pattern but there are just now two more weapons in the pool). I assumed that Hard Light, Universal Remote, and Thunderlord are [b]not[/b] in Xur's loot table. Red Death: Sold twice out of 24 times for a probability of 8.3% Suros Regime: Sold twice out of 24 times for a probability 8.3% Gjallahorn* : Sold once out of 24 times for a probability 4.17% Ice Breaker: Sold three times out of 24 times for a probability 12.5% Truth: Sold three times out of 24 times for a probability 12.5% Patience and Time: Sold twice out of 24 times for a probability 8.3% Last Word: Sold twice out of 24 times for a probability 8.3% Mida Multi-Tool: Sold once out of 24 times for a probability 4.17% Plan C: Sold three times out of 24 times for a probability 12.5% No Land Beyond: Sold three times out of 24 times for a probability 12.5% Dragon's Breath: Sold twice out of 24 times for a probability 8.3% *Ghorn is no longer in the pool, so the numbers are a little skewed Two: Assuming the DLC guns are weighed. Since the DLC dropped, DLC guns have been sold 5 times out of 11 visits. DLC weight = (5/11) = 45.55% NonDLC weight = (6/11) 54.45% Non DLC weapons dropped 19 times DLC weapons dropped 5 times Now, the DLC only has two weapons that Xur can sell (obviously, he won't sell Nechrocasm or the PS exclusive) Including the DLC weight, the probabilities are now: Red Death: (2/19) * 54.55% = 5.74% Suros Regime: (2/19) * 54.55% = 5.74% Ice Breaker: (3/19) * 54.55% = 8.61% Truth: (3/19) * 54.55% = 8.61% Patience and Time: (2/19) * 54.55% = 5.74% Last Word: (2/19) * 54.55% = 5.74% MIDA: (1/19) * 54.55% = 2.87% Plan C: (3/19) * 54.55% = 8.61% Gjallahorn*: (1/19) * 54.55% = 2.87% No Land Beyond: (3/5) * 45.45 = 27.27% Dragon's Breath: (2/5) * 45.45% = 18.18% *Ghorn isn't in the loot pool anymore, so the numbers are a little skewed. I'm assuming Xur is just rolled again is Ghorn was rolled. The second assumption seems more likely. There is a 45% chance that a DLC gun will be sold, and then a 60% chance NLB will be sold and a 40% chance that DB will be sold. So, I think it is very likely that the DLC is weighted (Bungie, you assholes). But they might just be trying to get people the buy the DLC (even though the DLC weapons SUCK), which is understandable. After all, Bungie needs to make money. So, want Suros again? So do I. Better hope that the 5.74% chance is in your favor! I can't really blame Bungie if they give the DLC a higher weight than the nonDLC. Remember, we paid for [b]Bungie's[/b] game. They are under no obligation to provide us a weapon through Xur that can be obtained in other legitimate ways. Xur is just an asshole. I want Hard Light, Suros, and Ghorn, but Bungie is under no obligation to provide those weapons to me. I paid for their product, and I have to deal with the way they build their product. Bungie isn't under any obligation to provide us with ANY particular weapon - Xur is a privilege, not a right. This is all assuming that the random number generator in Destiny actually has a uniform distribution. I have no idea how they generate the random numbers, so I can't calculate based on that. I just thought I'd do a simple analysis. I could do a more complex analysis, but I can't do that without knowing how they generate their numbers. Anyway, I thought the results were interesting. Remember, this is STATISTICS, and PROBABILITY. We could get NLB 1000 times in a row, it's just very (very) unlikely that will happen. Probability of getting a DLC weapon [b]again[/b] next week: 20.66% (UGH) (DLC weapons for two weeks in a row) Probability of getting a NonDLC weapon next week: 79.34% (The chances go up the more weeks we get DLC weapons in a row). For the poll: Do you agree with the stats?