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originally posted in:Sapphire
Edited by Dragon029: 12/5/2013 10:46:08 AM
25

Fusion around the corner? Global change on the horizon?

[quote][b]tl;dr at the bottom![/b][/quote] Quick overview of what I'm talking about: Lockheed Martin's has a famous division called the Skunk Works. In the past they've brought the world the SR-71, U-2, F-117, F-22 and many other projects. They are arguably the most advanced and secretive engineering / scientific design firm in the world. Nuclear fusion; fusing 2 atoms together until they become a single larger atom, releasing energy in the process. The main 2 methods of doing this (for energy production) are: Inertial confinement - using many lasers to blast a capsule of fuel so evenly and powerfully that it implodes and fuses. Progress: NIF is making milestones, but still far from close to breaking even in energy-in/out. ETA ~2050. Magnetic confinement - put plasma in a magnetic donut (or sphere), squeeze the plasma with the magnetic field until it fuses. Progress: ITER making milestones, but costly; test facility to be built in the coming decades; break-even expected by about 2040 or 2050. A facility would be roughly the size of a football field, as the larger it is, the more efficient it is. --- In the video above, we see a spokesperson from Skunk Works. They're making a statement; they have been working on a new form of magnetic confinement, one that doesn't need to be massive (it can fit on the back of a semi-trailer), and is vastly more stable and efficient than the current record. [b]They say they can have a production model running by 2017...[/b] [url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_beta_fusion_reactor]Here's a link to the Wiki article, listing their claimed innovations / advances.[/url] To reiterate; Skunk Works don't really kid around; they don't particularly need a customer, they're pretty much in bed with the US government; the F-35 program alone is worth roughly a trillion dollars. As far as credentials go, they have them (also, for the record, Lockheed does a lot more than just aircraft; they do power systems, communications, etc). Using a very rough economic model, they say they / the licensed contractors of their generator / tech could provide the entire globe's minimum power requirements (aka, provide power to the entire planet, including an energised Africa) by around 2050. Yes that's fairly idealistic, but compare that to current projects that intend to have their first [i]working[/i] reactors by 2050... Also, food for though: in any business, you evaluate projects like this for their business and political impacts. This has the potential to revolutionise / overthrow the entire globe's energy system. Very powerful people, both in Lockheed and those they associate with (government officials) are making a powerful statement by allowing this to go public. I don't know about you, but I see that as a trump card being provided in respect to certain rising / returning powers... [b]tl;dr:[/b] Current nuclear fusion isn't due to start until 2050. Lockheed is offering commercial fusion by 2017 (they were working on it in secret and have made massive advances). This will overthrow energy companies & economies if pursued, so why have Lockheed gone public with it? Why is the government (who are very much associated with Lockheed) allowing this to go ahead? The answers aren't hard to guess, but it raises many interesting thoughts.
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  • The Polywell is a related concept being funded by the US Navy. Will sit and read about this when I get in. With fusion projects assume scepticism. We learn more and more about the complexities of fusion as we go on, but it will take a hell of a long time to get it to work.

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