I have played 1106 Crucible games... Mostly in Control/IB. If my memory serves correct, I have received 2 Exotic Weapons (Gjallarhorn and 4th Horseman) in this time. So for me, the drop rate appears to be 1/550 games... so due to randomness, this is probably 1/500 (1 in 500).
Whats been your drop rate?
EDIT #1: Strange Distribution so far..."Law of Small Numbers" I guess...
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Played 380 crucible matches and got two exotics. Ice breaker and plan c. If there was a 1/200 option, I'd pick that. 1/250 is the closest on the poll.