[quote]I've been seeing a lot of posts about people claiming Xûr is bullshit or not random. So I decided to create this post. This won't prove Xûr is RNG, but can show that Xûr is most likely RNG. It's a experiment that anyone with a good enough calculator can try at home. First, I assigned each exotic weapon a number from 1 to 14 (excluding exclusives, bounties, and Raid drops). I used a TI-83 Plus calculator for the next part. Click [b]MATH[/b] and move over to [b]PRB[/b] (probability component). Choose #[b]5[/b] which reads [b]randInt([/b] and insert [b]1,14,1[/b]. [spoiler]If it matters, the first two numbers represent the range, from 1 to 14. The last number represents how many numbers will be calculated.[/spoiler] Afterwards, continue pressing [b]ENTER[/b] while collecting data roughly 24 times since that's how long Xûr has been visiting the tower. Here is what my results showed: 13, 11, 2, 13, 4, 2, 11, 1, 13, 7, 13, 12, 2, 14, 5, 10, 11, 7, 14, 10, 5, 2, 3, 6 Notice 8 and 9 didn't appeared, consider those Hard Light and Thunderlord. Also notice how 13 appears four times. The number 1 only appears once, consider that the Gjallahorn. While I'm sure Bungie uses a different algorithm or whatever, it's possible Xûr is RNG. [b]TL;DR[/b] Go ahead and read it Thoughts? Comments? I highly encourage everyone to try this out, I'm sure there's computer programs that can do this online. [b]EDIT[/b] Check out this post for an in-depth explanation. https://www.bungie.net/en/Forum/Post/97125577/0/0 Changed the title, made it shorter [b][i][u]EDIT[/u][/i][/b] Provided by lisBowser, thanks for saving me the trouble of conducting more trials. [quote]OK, so I made a quick little program that will randomly generate 20 random numbers between 1 and 14. Really, I just did this; "textBox1.Text = "" + rand.Next(1, 14);" for 20 textboxes. Round 1: 5, 13, 8, 3, 10, 6, 1, 7, 12, 7, 4, 7, 1, 1, 10, 3, 4, 6, 5, 7 Round 2: 8, 3, 11, 10, 2, 2, 7, 1, 5, 10, 12, 12, 12, 7, 1, 11,1, 3, 1 Round 3: 6, 6, 1, 4, 6, 13, 6, 13, 10, 13, 1, 1, 11, 8, 12, 3, 3, 11, 2, 8 Round 4: 4, 8, 6, 8, 10, 5, 8, 3, 8, 9, 5, 4, 3, 5, 1, 2, 2, 8, 5, 2 Round 5: 10, 3, 10, 2, 4, 9, 2, 5, 13, 4, 12, 13, 13, 8, 11, 12, 13, 7, 7, 1 Notice a pattern? In each round there are numbers that aren't picked. However, if you look at the whole spread of numbers, you get a more even distribution. We are only in week 21 of xur's test. There are exotics that haven't been picked, it doesn't necessarily bungie picks the exotics xur sells. Let's keep going, Round 6: 5, 3, 6, 1, 8, 11, 11, 7, 8, 10, 1, 9, 6, 13, 12, 1, 11, 5, 4, 1 Round 7: 4, 4, 4, 4, 11, 5, 4, 8, 7, 2, 2, 9, 1, 5, 10, 7, 11, 9, 8, 7 Round 8: 12, 8, 10, 4, 4, 4, 8, 1, 10, 11, 1, 9, 4, 6, 10, 2, 13, 2, 4, 3 Round 9: 7, 3, 13, 6, 8, 6, 8, 2, 3, 5, 3, 3, 10, 10, 3, 10, 7, 13, 1, 8 Round 10: 11, 4, 12, 10, 2, 7, 5, 9, 8, 9, 8, 9, 6, 5, 13, 9, 8, 5, 9, 11 It's easy to notice patterns in each Round, but Do the patterns in the numbers mean anything? Of course not. Each number is selected randomly, previous numbers have NOTHING to do with future numbers. Just for giggles, I'm going to pick numbers between 1 and 140. Round 11: 72, 51, 96, 121, 129, 46, 98, 21, 20, 62, 100, 78, 17, 118, 53, 5, 107, 59, 67, 32 Notice how no numbers were repeated? The less numbers it has to pick from, the more chances one number has to be more predominate of the others. Edit: Just realized I accidentally made it between 1 and 14 excluding 14, but that doesn't diminish my point.[/quote] [b][i][u]EDIT 2/1/15[/u][/i][/b] Someone pointed out that the DLC strike might be connected with DLC items. So the Omnigol strike might yield DLC items, which makes the odds of selling the same stuff higher. [b][i][u]EDIT[/u][/i][/b] Deej actually responded with- [quote]Hey, there. Let me attempt to clear some things up here. Xur is randomized. There are times when we can pull off miracles like making him stay in the Tower longer when Christmas is cancelled, but his inventory is governed by the same chaos that influences all the loot drops. Comments in that video about "the plan" were more about the fact that we know what he's selling before he appears, even if we can't reach out and stock his shelves ourselves. We set him in motion, and his will is not his own. Also in that video, you can hear me confessing that I'm not always in the loop when it comes to these things, so you should take pre-game lobby comments among friends with a grain of salt. That video was from months ago, and I was still learning the intricacies of all the new systems that we launched with the game. These conspiracy theories are symptoms of a burning desire. Gjallarhorn is the most popular ask that comes my way. I know you want it, even more than the collective requests for more vault space. As you can see, these are things that are beyond my control. I don't have one either. I'll do my best to talk to the people who create the code that drives Xur, and see if we can make him more valuable to you in the future.[/quote] So my theory that Xûr's loot is rolled and randomized on Tuesday could be possible. If it's true, it would explain how some people know what he's going to sell before he arrives. Here is the link of post that received Deej's response https://www.bungie.net/en/Forum/Post/76535585/0/0[/quote]

Bump

Wow, that's really interesting.

Tldr

This is one thing we learn in computer science, RNG is not really random. Numbers do come up twice back to back and it's pretty common. What helps to keep it look random is to use things like the time of day to help seed the number. A lame seed equals a lame random number sequence and may be why some people have terrible luck.

Any programmers out there that could explain this Barney style? Found it in a post I was reading a long time ago. Could explain RNG but it doesn't simply seem RNG itself [url=http://imgur.com/ZyhaE7d]Page 1[/url]

Instructions unclear. Dick stuck in ceiling fan.

I see your point. But rng CANT bring starfire protocol 5/6 weeks. That's just not random.