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Edited by Skarrow9:
5/2/2016 2:36:21 PM
142
Three of Coins Drop Rates!!! Easy to Understand!!
So an awesome Redditer, named wiggly_poof, did some tests and found these results for the drop rates of three of coins! I have simplified and explained these results in this video! Make sure to check out the original post, and subscribe for more awesome Destiny content!
Original post:https://www.reddit.com/r/DestinyTheGame/comments/4goy8s/3oc_statistics_updated/
Edit 1: I'm glad everyone is finding this information useful! Get out there and utilize this data to get more engrams guardians!
Edit 2: We're trending guys! Keep it up, everyone should know about these drop rates!
Edit 3: For any guardians who are questioning why most of their exotics drop before the tenth use, Coffee Tunic explained it very well here:
[spoiler]While the data is correct, the 10 coin "break-even" is merely for that coin; it isn't cumulative, and you would rarely ever get to that point. This is why statistics is such a confusing science. While each coin has a small drop rate, they end up combining when used in sequence.
Lets use the data from the [url=https://www.reddit.com/r/DestinyTheGame/comments/4goy8s/3oc_statistics_updated/]Reddit post[/url] to find our chances, excluding the double drop as an anomaly. In total there were 121 drops Exotics from this experiment going by the chart. From this pool, 93 of these drops happened by using 7 or less 3oC. This leads us to believe that by the time you have used 7 3oC, there is a 77% chance you have gotten an Exotic drop. In fact, this data suggests that once 4 of the coins have been used, there should be a 47% for you to have received an Exotic drop.
The chances you get an Exotic are, in order from 1 3oC to 10 3oC, 9%, 20%, 34%, 47%, 57%, 69%, 77%, 88%, 94%, and 98%. What does this mean? There is only a 2% chance that using 10 3oC will not get you an Exotic drop. The way each coin has a different drop rate has the effect of making the cumulative drop rate relatively linear.
TL:DR; Around 4-5 coins should be the average to get an Exotic to drop due to cumulative probability. Only a 2% chance you will ever have to use more than 10 3oC to get a drop.[/spoiler]
Edit 4: We just hit 150 likes on this post guardians! I'm really glad you are finding this information useful!
English
#Destiny
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1 ReplyWhat you can do is grind the mission where you kill the gate lord to get it's eye since it counts as an ultra. Should be around 10 mins per run which would help with cool down if you waited up to 10 mins between each. I'm going to test this weekend.
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1 ReplyBump for later
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1 ReplyEdited by Ten-Three-Two: 5/3/2016 1:39:04 PMExotic Ingrums.
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1 ReplyThanks for this. This pretty much ties in with how Bungie described it originally , but puts some numbers and pictures behind it to make it clearer. It also provides a base-line to spot if the drop rate from 3oC is changed ----- Any info on the cool down time between coins? How long it is, whether it is the time between popping the coins or defeating the bosses or the time since the last coin wore off? If I pop a coin at the start of a strike and it is used up by the boss fight at the end, should I pop another coin at the beginning of the next strike (almost immediately after the last one wore off) or wait until just before the next boss fight (10 to 15 minutes later) before I pop the next coin?
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1 ReplyYes but the drop rate exponentially increases when there is a failed drop. So it's better to use 1 three of coins. No drop. Then 1 three of coins no drop. AND ON THE THIRD I USUALLY GET AN EXOTIC.
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2 RepliesEdited by REVIVE PHARMER: 5/3/2016 1:25:39 PMGood vid. Also, that's the first video I have seen someone use TLW since the update and wow, that gun is trash now.
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1 ReplyI usually get a drop in about 4-6 coins used, most I used before a drop was 11 so the chart seems about right. My question is, is there a specific mode or method for better drops ? Crucible, strikes, dreadnought knight, story ultras or patrol ultras ?
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4 RepliesTips for a Youtube gaming channel. Have annoying dubstep at title and says "you guys" at least once in every sentence.
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4 RepliesI have found that I have more than a zero percent chance of an exotic if I use ToC.
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lol i just think i have bad luck..i have gone to around 17 3oc's before i see one and this happens a lot for me hopefully one day my luck will change
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9 RepliesEdited by coffeetunic: 5/1/2016 3:46:37 AMWhile the data is correct, the 10 coin "break-even" is merely for that coin; it isn't cumulative, and you would rarely ever get to that point. This is why statistics is such a confusing science. While each coin has a small drop rate, they end up combining when used in sequence. Lets use the data from the [url=https://www.reddit.com/r/DestinyTheGame/comments/4goy8s/3oc_statistics_updated/]Reddit post[/url] to find our chances, excluding the double drop as an anomaly. In total there were 121 drops Exotics from this experiment going by the chart. From this pool, 93 of these drops happened by using 7 or less 3oC. This leads us to believe that by the time you have used 7 3oC, there is a 77% chance you have gotten an Exotic drop. In fact, this data suggests that once 4 of the coins have been used, there should be a 47% for you to have received an Exotic drop. The chances you get an Exotic are, in order from 1 3oC to 10 3oC, 9%, 20%, 34%, 47%, 57%, 69%, 77%, 88%, 94%, and 98%. What does this mean? There is only a 2% chance that using 10 3oC will not get you an Exotic drop. The way each coin has a different drop rate has the effect of making the cumulative drop rate relatively linear. TL:DR; Around 4-5 coins should be the average to get an Exotic to drop due to cumulative probability. Only a 2% chance you will ever have to use more than 10 3oC to get a drop.
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6 RepliesI do not believe your chances go up if you do not have one drop, then use another. Out of 65 that I had last week, only 4 dropped engrams.
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2 RepliesI tried what you said and I've got to exotics with using 6 coins and all did was pop one coin and 5 I got my first exotic. Play another game finish the very next year pop one got my second exotic. Awesome!! Thanks for the advice
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2 RepliesBump for later please
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1 ReplyBump for later please
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1 Replyalmost like you have to build up enough rep before one drops. now i had one drop for each cabal Boss but I killed em both
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2 RepliesEdited by H4RB1NG3RZ777: 5/2/2016 3:56:15 AMMy friends always say I have the best luck with 3oC and after this week I see they may be right what I do: PVE: Pop one before strike/poe/Coe (one at the final boss)/before ultra in patrol (when I know one will be there like skyburners etc.) When grinding I skip every other strike they typically take 8-10 min to complete so skipping one gets it ready. By the time you get to the boss on the next 3oC phase it should be good to go. Coe is easy and it won't cool down before you finish so don't waste more than one. I don't usually do patrol 3oC but on occasion have had some drops. PVP: Must grind. Pop one play 3 games pop another. It is easy to burn through them so wait about every 3rd game. It doesn't matter if you do good or not. And another thing. Doubt it's helpful, but grind until it drops. I go until I get a drop. I'll switch it up between. PVP and PVE but switch it up and don't stop until you have one. Once one drops don't go for round 2 right away. Finally, don't let it sit there if you pop a 3oC go for it. I average around one exotic for 3-5 coins. Also load up, I try to keep 60 between Xur visits. With the new infusing system and drop levels it is very beneficial in helping casuals stay relevant. Happy hunting. Edit: Today's results; started with 79 ended with 68. 11 used for 4 exotics between my hunter and titan. Switching between PoE/Coe and IB. 2 from Coe 1 from PoE 1 from IB. Total runs. 3 CoE, 1 PoE, about 6 IB (I didn't know I was making the post so I'd exact number probably more, but sick my dick idc.)
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3 RepliesI have found that when using 3oC in Crucible matches, when I do very well (top of the team) and win then I get an exotic about 50% of the time, even if I haven't used any 3oC before that in that day. Is there something I'm missing here? Does the chance of an exotic increase the better you perform in the Crucible?
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3 Replieswell i get the drop rates i did 7 boss kills this morning 4 from strikes and the rest doing patrol.. i did not get 1 exotic drop so i dont understand what the info was based on? i have 82 3oC's left..
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1 Reply1 in 7 a lot of the time for me
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I have crappy luck with 3ofC I used 20 the other day and didn't get a single exotic to drop. I used them as intended popping one before a boss waiting a while then popping another. I just have $hit luck with them.
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3 RepliesDraksis w/ 15 min apart had a pretty decent drop rate for me... Usually like 1 in 5. So I run Draksis, play crucible, then Draksis again. Seems to work better (for me anyways) than just one every crucible game.
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4 RepliesWas doing Coe and first time getting TWO exotic drops after boss died. I am quite sure it was a lucky glitch but definitely no complains. Too shocked to take a pic. Only manage to take a pic of the items inside my character to show it to my bro
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1 ReplyThis should in no way be used as a guide though, The drop rate is still based of of RNG. You can get say 5 extoics to drop in 5 matched or you can go through 30 matches using 1 coin each and not get one drop. I have a decent example of RNG with this. I usually pop one 3OC each before each round start in COE I played through COE 4-5 times with out a single Exotic drop and then between 3 runs in a row I got a total of 6 exotics. How can I go 4-5 runs with no exotics then get 6 in 3 runs, it is because it is 100% RNG. You just gotta hope the dice roll in your favor.
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4 RepliesSo full of shirt.....ToC is a joke, jus as much as bungie and Destiny is.. Their RNG is a hit and miss. I've had the worst luck in this game. Can honestly say that out if 100 ToC I've used, been lucky to get 1 drop miracle if 2. Played TTK hard mode raid with 3 characters.... Still no Helmut for any of them. Nightfalls....ghosts,ghosts,ghosts,ghosts,ghosts and on and on ghosts. There are jus ppl like me who get rained poop on so much then there's those who...just blessed with RNG....its the way it is. Used to love playing...eating the constant poo sandwich tho jus left a bad taste so now on a diet. All salt....you would be to if going thru this. For u folks a bungie....eat a bag of D!@ks for being Aholes with your dumbass RNG system. It's as broken as you are.
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3oc needs to be removed from the game. Horrible idea
