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Discuss all things Destiny.
Edited by FrenetiCreature: 5/12/2016 11:03:15 PM
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Crucible Games Predetermined?

Now, I'm not really what you'd call a "Conspiracy Theory type guy", but I did use to work as a police officer, before my accident. In that line of work, you're trained to notice things, patterns or things out of the ordinary. Well, I've played my fair share of Crucible matches, and then some. Throughout my time playing, I've noticed that there seems to be a trend in the outcome of the matches. Some of you may have noticed this also. Have you ever noticed how, in some matches, it seems like no matter how well you aim or what weapons you use, the other guys are just able to outshoot you; But then, in other matches, you'd literally have to sit down in the middle of the map and not shoot your gun at all in order to go negative? The funny thing is, sometimes the guys that are so easy to kill are the ones that did so well on your team last match, while maybe the guys who did poorly on the other team last match, but are totally wrecking on your team this time? Also, have you ever noticed that everybody's connection bar jumps around during the matches, going from green to yellow, back to green, then to red, back to green? Yet, Bungie is always so "tight lipped" about their matchmaking and always blames any kind of connection issues on the players' set-up, even though most of us have absolutely no problems with any other online games. And the biggest tend that I've noticed is that the outcome of matches almost always follow the same exact pattern. Similar to this: [u]Alpha Team[/u] Player 1 - 25 kills, 2.0 k/d Player 2 - 15 kills, 0.9 k/d Player 3 - 13 kills, 0.8 k/d Player 4 - 8 kills, 0.5 k/d Player 5 - 5 kills, 0.6 k/d Player 6 - 2 kills, 0.2 k/d [u]Bravo Team[/u] Player 1 - 21 kills, 1.75 k/d Player 2 - 20 kills, 1.80 k/d Player 3 - 17 kills, 3.0 k/d Player 4 - 12 kills, 1.25 k/d Player 5 - 10 kills, 0.9 k/d Player 6 - 9 kills, 0.8 k/d It's almost always like that. One team will have a player at the top with a bunch of kills and a good k/d, while the rest of the teams scores are crap. The other team will have the top four players with really decent scores and the bottom two will be... meh, but not horrible. It's like this almost every game, even though it's all the same players switching back and forth between teams, being mixed up each time. Doesn't that seem weird to you? Just start really paying attentions to the scores after each game you play. I'm sure you'll start to notice the pattern too. My theory is this: There is a mechanism within the matchmaking that brings players of about the same skill level into each match. (I know, common knowledge right? SBMM, OK, I know, but...) During the match, the game can "[i]sense[/i]", how well each player is doing. Each player has a "predetermined" placing, where the game decides before the match, about what the players score should be after each match, in order to conform to the model that it deems appropriate. Like the score table I made above. So, if the game has decided that an Alpha Team player should place at about 4th place at the end of the match, but that player is playing well and is starting to score above where he should be, the game will drop that player's "connection" down into the yellow. That way that player stats experiencing lag. We all know what it's like when you start lagging. You get shot through walls, enemies eat your bullets, they teleport all around, they kill you in two shots, etc. This way, it makes it so that player's score goes back within the parameters that the game has chosen for that player. This would explain why sometimes you start out decent, but then all of a sudden, it's like no matter what you do, you can't get kills for anything; and why your connection varies so much, even though you have a wired connection with decent speeds. It would also account for why, sometimes it seems like everyone is playing so inconsistently. One game you're awesome, the next, you're playing like you're blind, even though it's against essentially the same people. It would actually explain a lot of things. As for the reason behind it, I'm not exactly sure. But, it could come down to something like, gratification. If you start out and you're doing well for the first few games, you're happy, you want to play more. The game keeps you at our near the top. Now that you're really in the mood to play, it starts dropping you down. You feel like maybe it's a fluke, but you want revenge. You play more to get back to the top. You keep getting dumped on. But, when you're just about to quit, all of a sudden there's no lag. Your shots land every time. Your enemies die like they should. You're happy again. You play more. This keeps you playing, just as Bungie wants. The more you play, the better it is for Bungie. Now, I'm just talking about regular 6v6 crucible matches here. I haven't played trials or many other modes enough to say anything about them. But maybe there is a system similar in those other modes. (Let me know if you've noticed anything.) Anyway, I could be completely wrong. Maybe I'm just too tired or thinking into it too much. But, the facts are, I've noticed this pattern in the scoring. I noticed it a while back and just thought it was weird. But, as a cop, you learn that there aren't such a thing as coincidences. Also, Bungie won't talk about their matchmaking process. And, whenever you have connection problems, they always answer, "Read the help page, clear your cache." It's the same answer every time. I know this isn't a really well thought out and written explanation of my theory, as its 5 am and I am pretty tired. But, hopefully it's enough that most of you will understand what I'm getting at. Let me know what you think and if you have any ideas or theories. Edit 1: Hey, thanks for all of the positive and mature replies guys. Of course there is always the occasional, "Get gud." Or "You're just trying to make excuses." Replies. I don't have thin skin, as a police officer it thickens up real quick. So, I just read those, shake my head and move on. I know why I'm negative on all of my characters. It's no secret that I just completely sucked and was learning to play with a bummed hand. Plus, I hadn't played a video game in almost 15 years when I started playing Destiny, back in November 2014. Plus, I always play solo/random. I never play with anyone else. Which makes having a positive k/d a lot tougher. The very few times that I have been on a Fireteam, it was like "Easy Mode". So I know. I have a negative k/d. It's no big revelation. But, if you look at my history and stats on Destinytracker.com, you'll see that my stats and k/d have steadily risen since I started. But, I'm about 4,000 kills in the negative. Even if I got a 2.0 k/d and an average of 30 kills every round. That's +15 kills every round. It would take me 266 matches to get positive. Plus, I play Control almost exclusively. Just check my stats. I'm not the best out there, but my current stats aren't pure sh!t either. Also, speaking of checking my history, you can see in my matches history even more evidence of what I'm talking about here. I'll have streaks where I play awesome for a handful of games and then you'll see where it turns to crap for a handful of games. It goes back and forth, even though it's against the same group of guys sometimes. You could blame it on just playing well, then not playing so well. But, I think that's too easy an explanation. One game all my shots from my "God Roll" Hawksaw just tear through everyone, like a hot knife through butter. But, then the next game every other shot misses or it takes 8 shots to kill somebody? 17 (body shot) x3 (rounds per pulse rifle shot) = 51. That's 51 damage per body shot from Hawksaw. 51 x 8 = 408. That's enough damage to kill two guardians. I count my shots when it starts to seem strange. Plus, I'm a little OCD and have a tendency to count anyway. Anyway, when it takes 8 Hawksaw shots to kill someone, something is wrong, very wrong. You could call it lag, and yes I would agree. But, why would it change from one match to the next, or during the same match sometimes. Even with the same group of people? One game I'm killing everyone in 3-4 shots, the next it takes 6-8 shots? Hmmmm, seems odd to me. Also, the "Host" idea, I find this to be very true. I can tell when I'm the host, because I'll be the one at the top of the leader board, with close to 30 kills and a 2.0+ k/d. But, then the next game I can barely get 6 kills with a 0.3 k/d. That's just ridiculous. It's so inconsistent. I think Bungie knows all about it. I think they use this to their advantage and it ties into the whole theory. And that's why they're so "tight lipped" and "politely unhelpful" when it comes to us complaining about lag and matchmaking.
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  • By "accident" we suppose you mean you got beat down by your partner for taking too long with the incident report when the game is on.

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  • I agree with you. Good post.

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  • Uh, I think the laggers get the high score

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  • You need to readjust your spin metal hat

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  • The host switches several times per match that's why you see the connections fluctuate then settle back down for a bit. Also bungee has stated they want your wins vs loss equal. You win one you lose one. Win to many in a row and they put you in a lobby where you get shit on no matter what.

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    • I to think there is something going on in the game as far as who wins. You get plenty of moments were you go "I should of died for that" or "I hit this piece of shit 5 times and nothing!?!?! are you f'n kidding me!" Now this could be "lag" but it could also be something else. I played trials matches, get my ass handed to me. Next game, its the same people that just moped us up quickly. In the next match I pretty much wipe my ass with the entire team without even trying. They have clearly been better players then myself too. I like how the game spawns you on the enemy side to. That happens to me a lot, spawn and there are three enemies with their backs turned.. It could all be a lag issue. It could be the game hates you or it could be you're just having a bad game.

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    • Have you tried wrapping tin foil around your controller?

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    • I noticed that about two weeks ago and that's what lead to my Zen moment. I came to terms that my performance wasn't related to skill. Instead the outcome of a match is determined by the connection. It doesn't have anything to do with my router or my internet company. This help me to let go of my competitiveness. I was getting angry when I headshot someone and the didn't even flinch or when I got murdered by nothing because I was behind cover but actually two seconds ago I wasn't and this guys connection just caught up to mine. These weren't always issues though. They just suddenly appeared. Any ways, the point is this, Bungiee keeps us in the dark with their experimentation as evidence has shown in the past. It's out of our control and we can't take this game seriously.

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    • Yeah I noticed it back in December when I was playing iron banner. I think it's there for a reason, gives players a reason to keep playing especially the new guys. The "lag" that's BS! If a player was really lagging the game would kick them out or have them waiting a while before they can start playing again.

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    • I don't typically call people crazy, but you sir deserve the grand prize of stir crazy.

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    • No response from bungie yet.. doubt they will even defend themselves on this

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      • I don't play a lot of PvP, only during IB. I have noticed this before. I didn't pay close attention to the connections but i'd notice that there seemed to be a certain amount of games you win before losing a certain number.(or vice versa) Like you say, it could be bullshit. It's a theory and it's not like Bungie wouldn't do this. They are about as honest as a politician and transparent as a brick wall. They have set precedence on dev choices and knowingly deceiving the player base. This is not a theory, it's a fact. So knowing that? Yea, i'd be more likely to believe this theory you have. If i ever get into playing normal pvp again i'll pay attention to what you're talking about, see if it's true for me. Sure seemed that way last IB though.

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      • While I don't think games are adjusted mid-match, I do think that SBMM matches up players kind of funny. Instead of being regularly matched against players in the 0.85 K/D range, I find myself disastrously overmatched at times, while other times I own the Crucible and finish with a Best Around medal. Go figure.

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        • Nice post

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        • [i]Tips fedora[/i] [i][spoiler]im listening[/spoiler][/i]

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        • 1
          I believe it. I mean they only changed the matchmaking settings like 30 times, right? Who knows what they did within those changes.

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        • Interesting.

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        • Yeah...they try to do that to me in rumble sometimes...doesn't work xD

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          • I believe there is some truth in this.

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          • Lets put on our pretorion foil hats.

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            • The only problem with an otherwise great theory.... THIS IS BUNGIE we are talking about. Like they could pull off something that elaborate. They are lucky to just get regular crucible working half assed without red bars galore and everyone getting kicked to orbit for no reason. Other than that, cool story bro ;)

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              • lol i think bungies out to piss me of when i have to rift for weekly bounty, i hate rift starts of i get put into rounds 5000 or more behind for 5 games plus,then i lead rift 5 games in a row get pipped at post everytime,then 4 on 6 5 games in a row get smashed before i win 1,ban rift i hate that crap totally of topic, but i notice trends like you say to crucible

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              • Watch

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              • Bump

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              • This to some degree is correct That's one of the reasons sbmm exists is to even out kds

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              • Maybe bungie riggs oryx too... http://xboxdvr.com/gamer/micktheknife/video/17464181

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