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Destiny

Discuss all things Destiny.
Edited by FrenetiCreature: 5/12/2016 11:03:15 PM
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Crucible Games Predetermined?

Now, I'm not really what you'd call a "Conspiracy Theory type guy", but I did use to work as a police officer, before my accident. In that line of work, you're trained to notice things, patterns or things out of the ordinary. Well, I've played my fair share of Crucible matches, and then some. Throughout my time playing, I've noticed that there seems to be a trend in the outcome of the matches. Some of you may have noticed this also. Have you ever noticed how, in some matches, it seems like no matter how well you aim or what weapons you use, the other guys are just able to outshoot you; But then, in other matches, you'd literally have to sit down in the middle of the map and not shoot your gun at all in order to go negative? The funny thing is, sometimes the guys that are so easy to kill are the ones that did so well on your team last match, while maybe the guys who did poorly on the other team last match, but are totally wrecking on your team this time? Also, have you ever noticed that everybody's connection bar jumps around during the matches, going from green to yellow, back to green, then to red, back to green? Yet, Bungie is always so "tight lipped" about their matchmaking and always blames any kind of connection issues on the players' set-up, even though most of us have absolutely no problems with any other online games. And the biggest tend that I've noticed is that the outcome of matches almost always follow the same exact pattern. Similar to this: [u]Alpha Team[/u] Player 1 - 25 kills, 2.0 k/d Player 2 - 15 kills, 0.9 k/d Player 3 - 13 kills, 0.8 k/d Player 4 - 8 kills, 0.5 k/d Player 5 - 5 kills, 0.6 k/d Player 6 - 2 kills, 0.2 k/d [u]Bravo Team[/u] Player 1 - 21 kills, 1.75 k/d Player 2 - 20 kills, 1.80 k/d Player 3 - 17 kills, 3.0 k/d Player 4 - 12 kills, 1.25 k/d Player 5 - 10 kills, 0.9 k/d Player 6 - 9 kills, 0.8 k/d It's almost always like that. One team will have a player at the top with a bunch of kills and a good k/d, while the rest of the teams scores are crap. The other team will have the top four players with really decent scores and the bottom two will be... meh, but not horrible. It's like this almost every game, even though it's all the same players switching back and forth between teams, being mixed up each time. Doesn't that seem weird to you? Just start really paying attentions to the scores after each game you play. I'm sure you'll start to notice the pattern too. My theory is this: There is a mechanism within the matchmaking that brings players of about the same skill level into each match. (I know, common knowledge right? SBMM, OK, I know, but...) During the match, the game can "[i]sense[/i]", how well each player is doing. Each player has a "predetermined" placing, where the game decides before the match, about what the players score should be after each match, in order to conform to the model that it deems appropriate. Like the score table I made above. So, if the game has decided that an Alpha Team player should place at about 4th place at the end of the match, but that player is playing well and is starting to score above where he should be, the game will drop that player's "connection" down into the yellow. That way that player stats experiencing lag. We all know what it's like when you start lagging. You get shot through walls, enemies eat your bullets, they teleport all around, they kill you in two shots, etc. This way, it makes it so that player's score goes back within the parameters that the game has chosen for that player. This would explain why sometimes you start out decent, but then all of a sudden, it's like no matter what you do, you can't get kills for anything; and why your connection varies so much, even though you have a wired connection with decent speeds. It would also account for why, sometimes it seems like everyone is playing so inconsistently. One game you're awesome, the next, you're playing like you're blind, even though it's against essentially the same people. It would actually explain a lot of things. As for the reason behind it, I'm not exactly sure. But, it could come down to something like, gratification. If you start out and you're doing well for the first few games, you're happy, you want to play more. The game keeps you at our near the top. Now that you're really in the mood to play, it starts dropping you down. You feel like maybe it's a fluke, but you want revenge. You play more to get back to the top. You keep getting dumped on. But, when you're just about to quit, all of a sudden there's no lag. Your shots land every time. Your enemies die like they should. You're happy again. You play more. This keeps you playing, just as Bungie wants. The more you play, the better it is for Bungie. Now, I'm just talking about regular 6v6 crucible matches here. I haven't played trials or many other modes enough to say anything about them. But maybe there is a system similar in those other modes. (Let me know if you've noticed anything.) Anyway, I could be completely wrong. Maybe I'm just too tired or thinking into it too much. But, the facts are, I've noticed this pattern in the scoring. I noticed it a while back and just thought it was weird. But, as a cop, you learn that there aren't such a thing as coincidences. Also, Bungie won't talk about their matchmaking process. And, whenever you have connection problems, they always answer, "Read the help page, clear your cache." It's the same answer every time. I know this isn't a really well thought out and written explanation of my theory, as its 5 am and I am pretty tired. But, hopefully it's enough that most of you will understand what I'm getting at. Let me know what you think and if you have any ideas or theories. Edit 1: Hey, thanks for all of the positive and mature replies guys. Of course there is always the occasional, "Get gud." Or "You're just trying to make excuses." Replies. I don't have thin skin, as a police officer it thickens up real quick. So, I just read those, shake my head and move on. I know why I'm negative on all of my characters. It's no secret that I just completely sucked and was learning to play with a bummed hand. Plus, I hadn't played a video game in almost 15 years when I started playing Destiny, back in November 2014. Plus, I always play solo/random. I never play with anyone else. Which makes having a positive k/d a lot tougher. The very few times that I have been on a Fireteam, it was like "Easy Mode". So I know. I have a negative k/d. It's no big revelation. But, if you look at my history and stats on Destinytracker.com, you'll see that my stats and k/d have steadily risen since I started. But, I'm about 4,000 kills in the negative. Even if I got a 2.0 k/d and an average of 30 kills every round. That's +15 kills every round. It would take me 266 matches to get positive. Plus, I play Control almost exclusively. Just check my stats. I'm not the best out there, but my current stats aren't pure sh!t either. Also, speaking of checking my history, you can see in my matches history even more evidence of what I'm talking about here. I'll have streaks where I play awesome for a handful of games and then you'll see where it turns to crap for a handful of games. It goes back and forth, even though it's against the same group of guys sometimes. You could blame it on just playing well, then not playing so well. But, I think that's too easy an explanation. One game all my shots from my "God Roll" Hawksaw just tear through everyone, like a hot knife through butter. But, then the next game every other shot misses or it takes 8 shots to kill somebody? 17 (body shot) x3 (rounds per pulse rifle shot) = 51. That's 51 damage per body shot from Hawksaw. 51 x 8 = 408. That's enough damage to kill two guardians. I count my shots when it starts to seem strange. Plus, I'm a little OCD and have a tendency to count anyway. Anyway, when it takes 8 Hawksaw shots to kill someone, something is wrong, very wrong. You could call it lag, and yes I would agree. But, why would it change from one match to the next, or during the same match sometimes. Even with the same group of people? One game I'm killing everyone in 3-4 shots, the next it takes 6-8 shots? Hmmmm, seems odd to me. Also, the "Host" idea, I find this to be very true. I can tell when I'm the host, because I'll be the one at the top of the leader board, with close to 30 kills and a 2.0+ k/d. But, then the next game I can barely get 6 kills with a 0.3 k/d. That's just ridiculous. It's so inconsistent. I think Bungie knows all about it. I think they use this to their advantage and it ties into the whole theory. And that's why they're so "tight lipped" and "politely unhelpful" when it comes to us complaining about lag and matchmaking.
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  • Ok holy hell that was tldr but I'm going to give you an actual mechanism in matchmaking that most people don't know. Bungle rigs matches. They have something else in their code that actually tries to maintain a 50:/50 win/ loss ratio for all players (stated by devs) . So basically the game will eventually try and match you up or down depending on how well your doing. Winning too Much, well here's someone better. Awww losing a lot, here's some. 01 kd scrubs.

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    • I'm absolute garbage now....I leaned on TLW in year 1 and could get as high as 5 and 6 k/d....now i can't break 1.....Not only did the fix the ADS hip fire (which was fair) but also the range.....Then yesterday i tried using it....if you melee or throw a grenade it waits literally 1 second before you can fire it again...I found myself throwing a grenade and then aiming down the sights only to stare at my opponent while he blasted me while i waited on my gun to fire....

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      • Did any one read this entire post? 😮

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        • Tl;dr

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        • I'm tracking. Definitely some truth in there somewhere. Also, it's good to see a brother playing this game. I have been pushing a beat car for fifteen years, you are the only other Police Officer I have met. I'm sure there are more, just have not met them yet. Hope all is well with you now.

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          • There is definitely an algorithm at work with crucible. To what extent I can't say. I [i]can[/i] say that I believe that when a team is winning/loosing by a certain amount, the game will flip hosts, or whatever, in an attempt to even the score. If you're on the winning team destroying the other and this happens, you start to notice 'lag' near the middle of the match. You can also notice it on the loosing team and have a happy come back. They've said it numerous times that their goal is for everyone to have around a 1 kd and an even win/loss %. And we all know Bungie are some devious folk who like to manipulate and fiddle. Perhaps the algorithm is constantly active and that's what we see when we report that guy for lagging...and it's just the game. Remember they changed the connection indicators a while back.

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            • In 6v6 control your team can have have more kills and better kds but if you don't control zones you'll lose. 1 zone in 100 points per kill 2 is 200 and 3 is 300 , plus any bonus points from the way you kill .

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            • Bumpity

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            • it takes a few rounds for me to "warm up".. then I usually get ggs... if i can stay at that level of awareness 90% of the time....I usually dont get wrecked..

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              • Bump

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              • My overall KD is 1.94 across all characters. I'm a decent player, strictly solo. I could count on two hands how many times I had gone negative before TTK, now, it's much more often. Not because of skill, but just complete lag. I don't mind getting outplayed. Especially as a solo player, I'm used to getting shit on while I carry my team. But lately, it's compete bullshit. Every single game I play is dictated by lag. I'll get wrecked by some kid with a 1.2 KD but not because h outplayed me. He'd kill me behind walls, MIDA would take 7 headshots to kill him, etc. The problem is that this happens EVERY SINGLE GAME. I'm better than 99% of players, yet most games I go negative, it will be against people who aren't even remotely close to my skill level. It's absurd. While I don't necessarily agree with OP's theory, he has a point about bullets not registering, getting shot behind walls, etc. I don't believe there's some conspiracy, but something isn't right. Stevie Wonder could see that the Crucible is rigged. Some would call it lag, OP calls its aliens, but either way, something needs to be done. I'm a casual player, I don't care for wins or losses, etc. But with over 50,000 kills in the Crucible, and a 1.94 KD, how is my Win Loss ratio .82? I literally have to carry every -blam!-ing game or I lose. So I wouldn't be surprised if that's how Bungie matches players to even out the scores.

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                • I honestly wouldn't be surprised if this was true. I don't trust Bungie at all.

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                • Here is a screen shot of my actual statistics right here on the bungie site... I used the same exact weapon setup and class every single match and was, for the most part, playing the same exact people... Clearly bungie is not doing a SBMM they are buffing random people at the start of the match and making them God like. There is no way that a kd pattern should fluctuate this much... [url]http://s32.postimg.org/erg5c26h1/IMG_20160513_131816.jpg [/url]

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                • No. There's such a thing as playing inconsistently or teams just being terribly unbalanced. The terrible team balance has existed since the dawn of time in every team game ever as well.

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                  • I noticed that a long time ago, I always play the same no matter what. One game I would be like a God, the next I would be like as if I'm blind, which makes no sense at all.

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                  • This happenned all day. Starting off destroying people. Then put against fireteams and red bars and started losing games...after each game we lose i check the score... 1 person positive...everyone else negative.

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                  • I think it's called[spoiler]skill based matchmaking [/spoiler]

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                  • I have play some games with PVP, Destiny is the one that seems to be predetermined and crypted. In Iron Banner, each time i need less than 100 points to get the level 5, i loose 5 to 10 times before i can have a victory ... It happend in all(most) the Iron Banner i participated. About what you said about k/d for both teams, i think this is quite true about Domination and Clash, but less about Rift. I do not know if is thit link to a kind of predetermined stuff. But in many occasions it's what i feel.

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                  • I do notice that in some matches I do really well and in others I totally suck. I put this down to there being SBMM despite everything that Bungie say. I have been lucky enough to play with a few really top class players on a number of occasions despite being mehhh at Crucible. Each time I have we have been placed in a really sweaty game with equally proficient players and I can do nothing. I am bottom of the score board with an awful KD. I am just not good enough to take them on. Playing solo I do not do anywhere near as badly and as often as not am in the middle of the score board with a much better KD. Although if I have done badly I notice a much easier round next time. There is something happening but I am not sure what

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                  • This type of thing is called crackpot theory for a reason. Lay off the crack pipe and remove the tinfoil hat for a while, its not doing you much good.

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                  • I must admit I noticed something like what you're describing in year 1 ( My hunter for some reason was expected to carry entire teams so I'd always end up leading the losing team by a fair bit). I presume it was just a quirk of the matchmaking and it seemed to stop with the year 2 changes. I'd go with the old "Never attribute to malice what can just as easily be attributed to incompetence". In the chaos of Destiny's development Bungie 'couldn't tell if is was arsehole or breakfast time'. And the company leaked information like a sieve. I don't think they could have intentionally pulled something like this off an kept it quiet and out of the hands of data miners etc. Interesting thought though, and I've certainly noticed the tendency of the game to 'liberally' interpret things if it means increased difficulty. Again I presume design issues.

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                  • Edited by chopyouup09: 5/13/2016 2:56:38 PM
                    [b]Occam's razor,[/b] The simplest explanation should be favored untill you have more evidence to support a more complex explanation. SBMM will result in the patterns you see. My theory is that teams are formed to match skill average between teams and not skill range. Because of that a "bad team" with a few high scores and a bunch of low might be of similar average skill to a team of all good scoring players. But there are a few other things to consider about why matches take the kills they do and differences between teams. As you said you play control an objective based game mode if one team can quickly secure 2 zones it will force the opposite team to be on the offensive. Defence tends to be easier to gain kills (running at a target and then shooting vs an allready scoped enemy ect). Anyway my point is that if a team is consistently taking the 2 zones and holding them, the opposite team is constantly running into a bloodbath (the enemy is getting 2x points) and without a team coordination the losing 1 zone team will only score kills when rushing of which some people are good at (your teammates who have the high kills) while many people will do poorly and only have a few kills. My Advise [spoiler] For control based games you always want to be on the defence, push zone B at the start and hold it down, never go for a 3rd zone capture. For kill based games you want to team shot, ie you + teammates focus on single targets. For any games through I recommend forming a fireteam as even 1 or 2 other people communicating can flip a game. [/spoiler]

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                  • It feels like its predetermined sometimes.

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                  • That paragraph explaining how it might be gratification is exactly what happens to me it pisses me off

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                  • Although this is way too big of a theory to completely agree too, I certainly can know how you feel. I have felt this kind of thing many times in the Crucible. To the point where I have gotten two pulse rifle bursts into a guy first and he still manages to outgun me.

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                  • That's damage referee for you. Some friends of mine that still play have matches similar that no matter how many bullets they shoot into some people they'll always outshoot them like something is holding them back

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