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5/15/2015 1:39:22 PM
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If it's truly random, there is actually a chance you might never get it. Nothing is ever "due" statistically; so unless there's a pattern to the random drops in the game we don't know (for example, if your chances of getting a gally goes up .005% every raid) it is possible to never get this gun
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  • This is an example of someone fundamentally misunderstanding probability. Think harder about what you've said.

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  • Edited by shonik09: 5/15/2015 2:32:37 PM
    Coming from someone who actually understand probability here... He is right in some sense. If you had infinite time with the game you would necessarily get the gun eventually as there is a probability of it dropping. However as we don't have infinite time, it is possible a player will not get the gally even after putting in 10000 hours. It's just the probability of this happening is low (or should be low). Basically it means the odd few will get shit on by RNG, and Bungie will leave them in the shit by not letting Xur sell it. Thing is it may be more than the odd few that end up in this situation if the RNG is biased in any way...

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  • So to summarise what you've said, if you keep playing your probability approaches one, if you stop playing then you won't ever get it.

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  • Edited by shonik09: 5/15/2015 3:06:09 PM
    It approaches 1 it doesn't EVER get to 1 though. The whole point is some people can be mega unlucky and just never receive it. It's possible to not get the Gally with over 1 YEAR of playtime. In all honestly with 17 million players it's nearly guaranteed there will be one player with over 10000 hours that still won't have it. The more players that play the game, the more likely it is you'll get one that just won't get it lol. TL;DR It's completely possible someone will not get a Gally after over 1 YEAR of gameplay... The fact it's unlikely doesn't change the fact that it's not impossible and pretty much guaranteed to happen to someone if the player base is large enough.

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  • I refer you to my original post; still stands. Its not impossible, will just take an amount of time that is not predictable due to the random nature. I never spoke about the 1 year/10000 hours parameter that you have introduced above. Bro, do you even Maths?

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  • Edited by shonik09: 5/15/2015 4:22:01 PM
    If you had infinite time it's not impossible. If you don't have infinite time it can be impossible. I actually did a physics degree and do data analysis for a living so am pretty good at maths. I don't understand why it's such a hard concept to understand that if you don't have infinite time it is possible you will never get the gun... Just to be clear it's not even about the time being unpredictable. For random variables the best you can do is give a probability. In this case all you can do is give a probability that it will take X amount of time to get the gun. For increasing X (time), the probability steadily increases but never hits 1. The only exception is when X is inifinity when the probability will be 1. This means the only time at which you will be certain you will get a gally is at X = infinity. Thus at every other point in time you have probability (1-prob to get gally) that you will not get a gally. So for ever X leading to infinity, there is some probability you will not have received a gally. TLDR; The only time you can be certain you will get a gally is if you have put in infinite hours.. Otherwise the probability you will not get the gally is always non-zero.

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  • Thanks for the backup all I'm saying is that if there is a constant probability of .05, you would expect to get the gun 5% of the time in a great many drops. However, just because it's expected doesn't mean it will happen. Just because it is statistically improbable to never get one, due to the nature of randomness it is indeed possible.

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