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Edited by Jamesxgamz:
12/23/2016 7:24:13 AM
98
Icebreaker drop rate - Final Results
Final Edit:
Thanks to everyone for a great response to this. It's been almost a day since I posted this and the votes/replies have slowed down so I thought I'd put together some results
Out of the people who responded and have completed the bounty at least once, just over 12% have got Icebreaker. Congrats
The drop rate per bounty is approx. 2.4%
Assuming you do 3 bounties per week, the weekly chance is about 7.0%
After 10 weeks of doing the nightfall 3 times per week you will have approx. 51.5% chance of getting at least 1 Icebreaker drop
If you want to know the background to this or see an earlier calc I did which explains a bit more how I got my results, see the spoiler below
[spoiler]
[b]You can only get Icebreaker by completing the bounty that requires you to do the nightfall under the time limit. If you did not complete the bounty it does not count[/b]
There was a poll in week 1 about Icebreaker drop rates but there was no field for "did not complete bounty" so people were voting no when they hadn't done it and others were voting no for 3 fails
There aren't enough voting options for everything, but I have done my best to get info to calculate a drop rate
I know people with more than 1 account may have done the bounty more than 6 times, but I think these are a very small number so I'm not including options for them
Thanks for voting
Edit:
Just to let you know what I am doing with this. I'll assume the worst case for number of fails (i.e. If you tried 3-6 times, I'll assume it is 6). People who didn't complete the bounty don't count. Sorry guys / gals
I'll then work out number of tries and fails and a percentage chance of a drop
It is still early in the poll, but here are some results so you can see what I will do
11% have 3 tries and no IB
59% have 6 tries and no IB
7% got it in 3 tries
7% got it in 6 tries
Number of tries = (11*3)+(59*6)+(7*3)+(7*3) = 450
Number of drops = 7 + 7 = 14
Drop rate = 14/450 = 3.11%
This is the drop rate per bounty.
If you do 3 bounties / week it works out to be:
1-((1-0.0311)^3) = 0.090
= 9% chance per week
Note: this is a pessimistic estimate assuming max number of fails per voting category. Actual drop rate may be better
I'll update the figures to show drop rates after we get more votes.
[/spoiler]
English
#Destiny
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11 RepliesNot to mention Nightfall difficulty - last week's was a bear. I completed it once but not in 30 min, so no bounty. This week's Nightfall was easy in comparison - finished all 3 bounties in under 30 min, first run on each guardian. Still, no Icebreaker. This drop rate needs to be significantly buffed or: 1. Add Icebreaker to the special exotic engram decryption table 2. Have Xur sell Icebreaker 3. Let all users who already HAVE Icebreaker buy the next gen from the weapons kiosk like we could for ALL other exotics where we ALREADY owned previous versions (except for Thorn and the forgotten exotics - Vex Mythoclast and Pocket Infinity). I'm not going to continuously grind Nightfalls for a slim chance at a new Icebreaker. The Nightfall drops are STILL crap and I don't need more 400 light legendary guns (standard Sunrise bounty drop). I'll just live without it like I have without Necrochasm - again, the drop rate for the Crux of Crota was so abysmally low that I decided it wasn't worth the effort. It seems to me like at the last minute Bungie changed their minds about how the 3 exotics from The Dawning would be distributed - and someone made a big mistake with the Icebreaker drop rate - i.e. missed a zero - like 3% instead of 30% chance at a drop.
