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originally posted in:Sapphire
Edited by Diplomat:
4/5/2013 3:51:39 AM
7
[quote]You haven't all forgotten about Iran have you? There is a "red line" they are going to pass with their nuclear technological advancements, that both the US and Israel have agreed to use military force to stop.[/quote]
Officially, yes. However, I'm starting to think that this is nothing more than a political ploy to try and scare Iran. We just got out of two wars, and we're not looking for a third. It would be suicidal, resulting in an untimely death for our economy. Israel doesn't have the military capacity to strike Iran, that's why they're relying on us. If we refuse to initiate conflict, Israel won't be able to do anything about Tehran's program.
[quote]This is a distraction technique used a lot throughout history, both national and international. In this case, North Korea is distracting the international community while the US and Israel prepare for an attack on Iran, and possibly anything that might follow.[/quote]
I don't think that this is being used as a distraction for a strike on Iran, to be frank. Given the fact that we'd need a great deal of assets to conduct the attack (primarily defensive and logistical units), someone would catch on eventually, even if our eyes are turned towards North Korea.
[quote]Anyways, this is mostly a reminder that there will be something boiling over in Iran any time now until the end of the year.[/quote]
I hope not, war would be idiotic and just prove that the conspiracy theorists are right about America being Israel's bitch.
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I think Israel is more than capable of defeating or at least winning a tactical victory against Iran.
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Edited by Diplomat: 4/6/2013 4:59:52 PMEssentially, to temporarily set back Iran's nuclear program by two years (a tactical victory), you'd need about 125 F-15 and F-16s to run a variety of sorties against fortified targets, in an area that has an extremely dense A.A. defense network. Not only this, but you would need to equip this force with extra fuel tanks and provide a large number of KC-707s to fuel them so they don't fall out of the sky over Iraq (or Turkey). Israel doesn't have enough KC-707s to cover that large of a force. Exactly why they need U.S. assistance. Something I doubt we'll give, since the U.S. Intelligence Community has publicly stated they didn't believe Iran had a nuclear [b]weapons[/b] program at this point.
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Obama made it clear that military force would be used as a last resort if diplomacy doesn't play out to end Iran's nuclear program. There is also the fact that Iran will develop a nuclear bomb by the end of the year. So we can put in a little faith that this will be solved diplomatically, or that Obama chickens out and doesn't follow through on an attack, but there's a good chance that Iran would be attacked by the end of the year (I highly doubt Iran would agree to shut down their nuclear program). However an attack doesn't necessarily mean war would follow (but that's a smaller chance).
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Edited by Diplomat: 4/5/2013 5:27:05 AM[quote]Obama made it clear that military force would be used as a last resort if diplomacy doesn't play out to end Iran's nuclear program.[/quote] I reiterate: Officially, yes. However, I'm starting to think that this is nothing more than a political ploy to try and scare Iran. America still relies heavily in many respects on its hegemony. That is, coercion through the use of military power to intimidate political foes into submission. This doesn't mean that we're going to go through with these provocations, countries make empty threats all the time. Let's look at it this way, Obama has hinged heavily on restoring credibility to the American brand since coming into office, while also promising to decrease conflict. There is no way in hell that he's going to jeopardize that for weapons Iran isn't developing at this point in time. [quote]There is also the fact that Iran will develop a nuclear bomb by the end of the year.[/quote] [quote][url=http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/02/22/how-close-is-iran-to-nuclear-weapons/]The best intelligence about Iran’s nuclear program indicates that no nuclear weapons work is going on in Iran right now. James Clapper, the director of national intelligence, has confirmed that he has “a high level of confidence” that no such work is going on now. This reflects the consensus view of 16 different U.S. intelligence agencies.[/url][/quote] [quote]So we can put in a little faith that this will be solved diplomatically,[/quote] I agree. [quote]but there's a good chance that Iran would be attacked by the end of the year[/quote] [url=http://www.timesofisrael.com/us-to-iran-in-case-of-israeli-strike-dont-fire-on-our-bases/]Yes, and Obama has already signaled that he will not support such an attack. We've already told Iran that if Israel does stupid shit, don't blame us.[/url]
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Edited by Dustin: 4/5/2013 8:27:24 PMThe thing is, for both of your sources, there are other sources saying different things. >[url=http://washington.cbslocal.com/2013/03/14/obama-says-iran-a-year-away-from-nuclear-weapon/]Obama: Iran is one year away from a nuclear bomb (March 14)[/url] >[url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/15/us-usa-israel-obama-iran-idUSBRE92E14820130315]Will use military force a last resort (March 15)[/url] I'm not saying you're wrong, but clearly we have a problem.
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[quote]>[url=http://washington.cbslocal.com/2013/03/14/obama-says-iran-a-year-away-from-nuclear-weapon/]Obama: Iran is one year away from a nuclear bomb (March 14)[/url][/quote] He's not saying that they [b]will[/b] have a weapon within a year, he's saying that it would take them a little over a year to develop one if they started a weapons program today (notice his wording, 'would', not 'will'). So far, our Intelligence Community says that no such program currently exists. [quote]>[url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/15/us-usa-israel-obama-iran-idUSBRE92E14820130315]Will use military force a last resort (March 15)[/url][/quote] Yes, in order to STOP them from obtaining a nuclear weapon. They are not pursuing one at this point.
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Yes, these are called opinions. The agreement of '16 different US intelligence agencies' carries more weight than a public speech by Obama.
