In reality, there are 3 scenarios that will play out. If you want, I can explain, but it really will depend on 2 metrics. ARPU and the 30/60/90-day player base. The first is the average revenue per user, as this is what will make up the majority of the revenue for the game. These people buy skins, packs, whatever. This is what the longevity of the game is built around, not the initial purchase. The second would be the player retention for said days as more players can obviously be calculated into higher revenue for the game going forward. Within a few days of launch, the numbers should start coming out. The difference between this and Destiny 2 is that everyone playing bought something, so these people are invested. But, do realize that the industry average for financial analysis is for $5 to $15 per month and between 5 to 10% of the player base ever buying anything. 1 to 3% buy everything, and can skew figures, but you are talking about a very small group. 10% is extremely high and is definitely not common. You are getting into Pokémon and Fortnite type numbers. Within the first 30 to 90 days, that dollar amount can be boosted temporarily, but then levels out to the figures I said. The first 30 days will be extremely important.

Bungie made the same mistake a lot in the games industry have they chased a trend instead of actually trying to make something good. They could have made a fun single player game for less cost and risk but instead they chased after a trend and now live service and extraction shooter is over saturated with slop and failed projects.