A little more to your theory, the way rng works is over time the greater majority will get drops with increased play time. With increased play time comes increased skill.
There are a minority who got lucky and did not need to run normal more then a couple times to hit 30 but for the most part guys who are raid 30s had at least five completions per lvl 30 char. This means they know where when and how many guys will spawn. They know where cover is and they know the limits of their guardian.
I am not saying that it is impossible for a 29 to not have this exp, but it is unlikely for a 29 to have this and not level 30 gear just like it is unlikely for a guy to have lvl 30 gear and not have this exp.
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I think the first sentence of your post may be quite the opposite. The RNG system awards my friends who have way less time spent than me more rare stuff. For instance I have 500 plus hours and have been thru the raid 20 plus times and seem to get the short end of the stick when it comes time for armor and weapons. Conversely, I've got guys with less than 150 hrs that get helmets and an assortment of top tier raid weapons and armor. RNGesus knows if you have time to spend in the game vs when you don't. If there were just a way to reset your game hours....