While I also think that Microsoft will be more successful in the long run, people are currently preferring the PS4 for much more than the price. While the price is certainly a large factor, the internet connectivity, DRM, the lack of disk sharing, and a lot of confusion/misinformation are also contributing to the current PS4 lean.
The PS4 is appealing to people that don't live in areas where internet is available (rural US, lots of the rest of the world), people that rely on used games, and people that have both of those things, but think the Microsoft policies would affect them in some regular or semi-regular occurrence (travel, relocation, unreliable connection to ISP).
I genuinely think that Sony will try to implement some of these MS things down the line, and will have a difficult time imposing it onto a population that can't necessarily support those changes. Only time will tell, but six years down the line things could very well be different than they are at launch.
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You've got some good insight. Still need to fail you for the sake of the test.