Exotic drop rates have been significantly raised...
I don't have all the newly adjusted metrics, but it's approximately 20% (PER INSTANCE - so important to highlight that) so 1 in 5; up from 10% per instance or 1 in 10. Regardless, every drop is a new calculation. Master is better too, but my data is limited thus far... my guestimate is 1in3 up from 1 in 5, so 33%.
It takes me 5-6 mins to run a Legend LS... ; it takes me 8-15 (some of new ones have so many adds) for Master. I'm a good player, but I'm not Eso either... this is the skill curve Bungie needs to account for. Lost Sector rng is better than it's ever been. 25 - 30 mins isn't bad on Legend per exotic.
I feel every one of these posts are from people that don't actually play or learn these LSs. I actually play them... alot.
Let me explain actually how good they ARE... I've been slacking on my leveling, haven't touched my Titan since the beginning of week 1... so he was way behind my other 2. In ONE night, I started below hard cap, now I'm on the 9s for the pinnacle grind... to do it I needed 3 pairs of boots along the way, and they all came within rng threshold... in fact, better... only one pair actually took 5 runs/30-35 mins. You'll easily average 3-4 exotics per hour.
The places I use to test, are LSs & Legend/Master campaign missions.... I spend alot of time in these spaces. Probably done 50-100+ LSs (all different ones since launch) I use LSs to blue all the way... I was doing them -35 under. The rng had been buffed not last season but the previous... then they just buffed it again.
I'm sorry, you have unreasonable expectations... the rng for LSs' is really good right now.
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[quote]Exotic drop rates have been significantly raised...[/quote] They have. But that is overall drop chance. But you need to compound that with the 1/9-13 chance of getting the specific piece for which you are farming. Then you need to account for the crap-shoot on stat distribution that makes [i]at least[/i] half of the exotics you [i]do[/i] get nothing but crap infusion fuel. [i]Even when using the ghost mod for a minimum 10 in a stat![/i] [quote]...20% [for Legend]... ...33% [for Master]....[/quote] Previously Legend LS had a 20% drop rate, and master sat at about 23%. Those numbers were crowd-sourced by the community with over 10k separate data points. The percentage is part of the issue, the big part is that even if the master was 50%, that isn't what we have been taught "common" drop rate means. Compare to Master and GM nightfalls. Exotics are "common" there, and the only time they [i]don't[/i] drop is if a rarer item (Ascendant Shard) took their place. So those have a 100% drop rate (baring rarer gear). Both of those activities describe exotic armor as [b]Common[/b]. [quote]25 - 30 mins isn't bad on Legend per exotic.[/quote] That would be entirely reasonable, but the point of the post is that you are getting a grab bag. Every 20 min, you get a 1/9-13 chance of getting the [i]specific[/i] exotic you want. Without a lockout system. Little bit deeper on the math here. On average we can probably say that every exotic drop has a 1/10 chance of being the specific exotic you want. You aren't going into a LS for any exotic. You are looking for a specific one generally. The odds of losing (ie, getting 10 exotics [i]other[/i] than your specific target) with 10 random exotics (200minutes) are 0.9^10. So roughly 0.349, or 34.9%. Meaning if you run the lost sector until you get 10 exotics, there is only a 65% chance that you get the one specific piece you want. If we take your low end number that you called "not bad" of 20 minutes, we now start to get at the issue. 200 minutes (3h20m) of running lost sectors. [quote]I feel every one of these posts are from people that don't actually play or learn these LSs.[/quote] I run between 1-2 [i]hundred[/i] lost sectors every season to try to acquire the new exotics [i]for my warlock only[/i]. I virtually exclusively play my lock, and I run LS not just to "get one and done." I don't need swarmers boots. I need Swarmers boots with only a 2 in mobility, high resilience, decent recovery, & high discipline. [b]These are modest requirements for buildcrafting[/b]. I don't need specific numbers. I just need passable numbers in the stats that matter and no stat points "wasted" in the stats that don't matter (on warlock, ie, mobility & strength). This is where the time-farming issue comes in. 3h for a specific exotic; it isn't the worst if I have a surefire way of controlling stat distribution. But barring that, the hours add up quick. But there is no way to control the stats to be useful outside of the ghost mod for a minimum of 10, and still doesn't guarantee that particular stat is a "spike." Some more math for us now: If I have a 1/4 chance of getting the "right" stats. (This is probably a fairly generous estimate, even when using the ghost mod). We are looking at a 75% chance of getting crap stats. 0.75^4 (represents 4 three-hour cycles of rolling for the specific exotic) gets us to a 0.316 (or 31.6%) chance of failure. Meaning a 69% (nice) chance of success in getting the stats on the exotic we are actually farming. That is over [b]12 HOURS[/b]. If we assume ~5min for a platinum legend completion, you need to run 144 platinum lost sectors on average to get a single [i]decent[/i] roll of the specific exotic you want. We can extrapolate that final count as a fraction 1/144 chance. That works out to: 0.694[b][i]%[/i][/b] on any single lost sector completion. You have better chances at getting a raid exotic on the first run. [quote]I'm sorry, you have unreasonable expectations...[/quote] My expectations is that common means common across the game. If the drops were [i]actually[/i] common (ie 100% in master LS; taking about 6m on average), we would be looking at ~60m to get the exotic (down from 200m) & 4h (down from 12h) to get a well-rolled stat distribution on that specific exotic. That breaks down to 1/40 chance per mLS completion. or a 2.5[b][i]%[/i][/b] chance every chest. My expectation is that bungie recognizes that this problem of actually being able to farm for [i]passable stats on specific gear[/i] will not get better, and actively get worse as they release more exotics, further diluting the loot pool.
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Edited by jhermannITJ: 3/31/2023 4:40:27 PMI read it all, and I appreciate the debate. I still think your expectations are unreasonable and you have some great critiques, but your core conceit depends on the definition of a word that has variable perspective and no defined metric number either in the game or outside of the game. I'll talk about it briefly, but I don't want you to think I'm being disingenuous or trying to misdirect. "Common" that's not a strong anchor. Common is not "couple" or "few"... that have defined universal metrics - 2 & 3 respectively. This is an important distinction I'm making. How often does an exotic drop from attrition metrics in "all" spaces and zones? Meaning, an exotic (seemingly random) world drop... It's just under 5k kills of any enemy type & is weighted by enemy type. I hope a lightbulb is going on right now 😉. That's what "COMMON" is based off of. And "common" doesn't mean the same thing in every activity.... Are you saying want LS's to be harder? You can't compare Master NFs/GMs with LS's. Again, think about what I already referenced - the attrition rate for world exotic drops. "Common" respective of kills and enemy types. So, of course a 3 man tuned activity with 1000-5000% more enemies is going to tip the scales. How many Master NFs have you solo'd... how long did it take you? Those questions are rhetorical, you have to understand what I'm saying now. "Common" doesn't mean a static metric regarding completion(s) of the corresponding activity, it's based on kills. This is implied via the ranking system too, as platinum runs give the best modifier respective of that attrition system and in GMs translates to virtually guaranteed exotic drops from platinum runs. But, it's not automatic... I've done many GMs where I don't get an armor piece, even with platinum. Weapons are "guaranteed" upon platinum completion/completion metrics... armor is not. Still based off of world drop attrition rates.... Alright, enough about the word "Common". Let's get to the crux of what you're actually talking about. You want transparency. Alot of people don't know about the stuff I told you. Alot of tubers are clueless about it. That's Bungie's fault. You said you do 100s per season. I like that, btw 😉. I do thousands. So, I know some things about this system, that carry as far back as the D1 loot table. I don't mean to brag, but I clued Sweats into this info. Kills matter, kill everything... you can skip stuff, but you must kill everything that spawns. You must get platinum, and don't die. That attrition system takes all of that into account. That's why no one knows the exact number... it's approximately 4700, but weighted by enemy type and player deaths... it's an algorithm with factors and multipliers that change based off of the activity you're doing. Everyday there is a hidden featured exotic in the LS. Exotics also have stat preferences. So, by combining... stats focusing mods and the daily featured exotic you can help route your rng for the exotic you want. I'll give a made up example: Let's say it's gloves, and Contraverse is the featured exotic... it favors discipline. But I want Vampire Gloves that prefer strength... slot Strength on your ghost. Sweats even did a vid after I clued him in, called something like [You're using ghost focusing mods when farming LS's wrong]... it might have been a couple, and I'm sure I got the title wrong. Anywho, to maximize your LS grind, farm on a day where the featured exotic's preferred stat doesn't match the exotic you want, then slot the preferred stat mod for said exotic on your ghost. That's how you do it. That's how you maximize your chances to get the exotic you want. So you can either (in LSs) use stat mods to encourage the stat split you want on the featured exotic OR encourage a specific exotic to drop based on slotting its preferred stat. Again, Bungie has confirmed none of this, but I'm telling you... this is how it works. You want transparency. That's what I get from your post. The featured exotic should be listed. With that small change, everything is different.