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Edited by TLadwin: 9/24/2014 4:12:05 AM
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Mathematical analysis of lootcave vs. rep farming; how is your time spent best? (original)

Edit: this is not using formal statistics in game but rather educated guesses towards showing the benefits vs cost of your time, you all complain that I dont use real numbers but in reality you dont need real numbers to break something down to its statistical nature. im sorry that you cant understand it, the only numbers that im purely guessing is the drop rate for legendary engrams, you can still get legendaries from blue engrams too but at a tiny % chance... dont hate on me for trying to show you guys how you are spending your time relying on luck to the n'th degree to get geared. Us old timers who appreciate games for what they are will never understand the younger "gotta win everything no matter what" who can only see the lootcave for what it is, gambling their game time; relying on RNG and then another layer of RNG and then more in order to get legendaries/exotics. The math speaks for itself. lets say 1/300 chance that a legendary engram drops (I'm not sure if that is true or not, its just a guess) and then that legendary engram has a 15/100 (15%) chance to yield a legendary and 1/100 (1%) chance to yield an exotic. that means to get a legendary engram that actually yields a legendary you would have to kill about 1000-2000 enemies depending on other factors that we may not know about (for example if cryptarch rep increases the % to receive legendary or better gear from purple engrams). the real kicker is when you consider the possibility of receiving an exotic from solely farming... 20,000 - 30,000 enemies killed and again that's excluding all other factors, and probably even being slightly favorable. I'm not a mathematician and have no idea whether this is completely right or wrong but it gives an accurate representation of the reality of farming. and you could break it down further into time management, lets say sitting at that particular cave you can farm 3000 enemies/hour so to receive an exotic piece (unless weapons it goes even further into RNG with a 1/3 chance for your particular class) it can take anywhere between 5-10 hours of doing this to get an exotic piece of gear (keep in mind 3/8 chance for weapon, 5/8 chance for gear, then 1/5 for which piece of gear, and then 1/3 each for whether or not it will be usable by your class), so modestly to receive an exotic/legendary by solely farming it can take anywheres between 2-10 hours for a legendary gear that is useful and 15-45 hours to farm an exotic piece that is useful. and one final thing, the reputation farm time, so only and only if you get legendaries from grinding reputation. on a good day i can farm maybe 1500-2000 reputation from farming for lets say 3 hours (collecting materials to sell to the vendors for rep/marks/glimmer/xp FOR EITHER FACTION! and doing patrol missions). this does not include rep from bounties which increase the speed of reputation gain enormously (an additional 250-500 rep depending on the day). so to reach rank two it takes 3500 reputation, to reach rank three it takes 6000 rep. so to start getting guaranteed legendary gear I spend about 4-5 hours, to start getting guaranteed legendary weapons, about 7-10 hours... After examining these facts then i think it is safe to say these kids farming the loot cave are simply doing nothing more than wasting their time, but coincidentally we are all wasting our time on a video game anyways so I would just prefer wasting mine in a more productive way.

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  • As much as I wish it was a guaranteed legendary from gaining a rep level, it certainly isn't. I received a whopping 1 ascendant energy for hitting rank 5 with vanguard last night....

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    • Edited by GiftedPenguin77: 9/24/2014 2:38:43 PM
      soft math with fake numbers is still fake FACT: last night I made a fireteam, ran all the pve Queen's bounties and missions, did 3 public events, then ran all the pve normal bounties, this took us roughly 3 hours, in that time, not countying the guarenteed items from the QE's missions i got a total of 8 blues, and 28 greens from all the trash and various mobs in the missions. Both of my fireteam had to head off for the night and as I only had an hour left myself and didnt wanna jump into another fireteam i headed for the "treasure cave", in 1 hour i collected 2 purples, 10 blues and 32 greens. yep cave is a total waste of time RNG IS RNG

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      • Wow TL:dr but im curious as well My numbers: (I almost never farm) 6,622 kills in strikes 29 hours in strikes (rounded up 12 min) 228 kills per hour running strikes Any farmers out there got numbers? The app gives you a lot of details on kills and time spent in each game type.

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      • This "mathematical analysis" of yours is incorrect because you don't have any data to prove your theories. Randomly creating numbers isn't factual data.

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      • You can't mathematically analyze with Guessing. Math is fact, and without factual numbers it is not a mathematical analysis. I have spent an entire day at the cave an only got 1 legendary and then another day I received 8 legendary engrams in 3 hours. If you want to do the math go sit there for a set time, count up your greens blues and purples. Then create a % per set game period played at the cave. IE 60 greens 12 blues 1 purple per 2 hours spent at the cave. Then go break down your engrams and put numbers out for what they turned in to. You also need to disclaimer variables such as pauses in action for public events or the faction skirmish that happens there. After all of that you would be able to tell us your personal averages. That would allow people to evaluate if it was worth their time to do the cave or not.

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        • Everytime I show up to the cave, 2 purps drop within 10mins and I leave. I then farm Rep. The cave is boring. I'd rather grind missions as my personal preference.

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        • Legendary Engrams and Loot Drops in Destiny: http://youtu.be/1awVTEE5SNM

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          • What's funny is that out of all the Legendary Engrams I've opened, only 2 have been Legendary items and 2 have been Exotics. Of course, 1 of each was for a Titan (Which is why I'm scrapping my level 2 Warlock in favor of a titan).

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          • I laughed so I'll give you that.

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            • Edited by Denkar55: 9/24/2014 2:49:40 PM
              This isn't a mathematical analysis you twat. Where is the regression analyses and data? You can't seriously analyze something mathematically without raw data. At least one group of people tried to look at a portion of the loot system recently with SOME RAW DATA. Your numbers of SPECULATION are likely off as demonstrated by data. http://kotaku.com/these-people-tried-to-figure-out-how-destinys-loot-syst-1636331002 A mathematical analysis CANNOT BE DONE WITHOUT DATA. You wasted the forum's time Edit: You also didn't account for increasing cryptarch levels which the article didn't either, but it likely plays an important role. Cave farmers likely have the highest level cryptarchs

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            • Your argument is based of of guessed numbers. Then you go into more numbers and more. Like they weren't based off if guessing. Lot of effort built off of assumptions. Seriously, some of your base numbers are very presumptuous. Get some actual numbers and this could be a great post. It's like me "figuring" out the depth that the story might end up with based off of what they have given us thus far. I don't have enough facts about the real story for me to draw any real conclusions without a disclaimer stating I'm having fun with what little was given Like the blob in the garden is the travelers heart. The vex were led to immortality by the traveller, before it figured its job was done and travelled on to us. The vex advanced with the traveller to the point they needed it to reproduce( the organic parts). So they came and took the heart back. True story. Check my numbers lol

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            • *Open thread. See there is no Excel spreadsheet. Leave thread*

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            • Math is wrong. My game record is proof. Have gained more legendaries and exotics farming for a few days than you possibly could rep farming.

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              • Yea for fake facts

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              • This isn't a mathematical analysis. This is just a thread about how one group wastes their time.

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                • I understand your point... but it's based off theoretical data. You come up with an argument that can nether be proven or disproven as a result of the exact figures (in regards to the loot system) being unknown to the public. One thing I think you need to realize is that these people (or "kids" as you refer) with this "win/get everything" mentality wouldn't use the cave if the results weren't there.

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                  • If someone can go on Wheel of Fortune and hit the vacation on every spin, then the luck is on their side. If the luck is on their side, then testing the RNG waters would be the better option.

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                    • It would be all great and all but those numbers are wrong. Assuming (that is what they said) that Destiny is using true RNG and not a really bad loot table your "math" is out of the window. Besides, [quote]The math speaks for itself[/quote] and then: [quote]lets say 1/300 chance that a legendary engram drops ([b]I'm not sure if that is true or not, its just a guess[/b])[/quote] makes you sound silly.

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                      • I will give you a practical analysis of cave vs rep farm: im full legendary and 0 of them are from engrams. Now destiny doesnt offer to me character progression without slaving away on artificially shortcut upgrade mats nor fun because ive seen all of it and spend enough time in pvp. All i now do is tune in once a week for xur.

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                      • What're you're looking for is called rolled throughput yield; not to go too engineer on everyone but the principle is that you multiply the probability of a successful outcome at each process step by each subsequent process step's probability of success. The more steps you have, the more difficult it becomes to get the outcome you're looking for. For instance with the OPs probability of drops lets say I wanted a legendary chest piece for my class, a Titan; my chance of success is 1/300 X 15/100 X 5/8 X 1/5 X 1/3 = .00208% for this outcome to occur. I can then take 1 over this number to determine how many kills I [i]may[/i] need to make for this outcome to happen, roughly right and with some rounding it's 48000. Seems like a ton to me, I'd rather spend my time getting rep and using marks to buy a guaranteed legendary, but that's just me.

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                        • Please tell me more about how a random number generator produces a 1/300 chance to get a certain item. I really wanna know. [i]Random[/i] means [i]random[/i]. While there is nothing in modern computation that can produce a purely mathematically random value, they get pretty close through long algorithms sometimes concerning irrational numbers or primes, (it's actually very interesting if you like numbers I recommend you look it up) [i]Random[/i] loot means there is almost any chance of you getting a legendary, whether it be 1/20 or 1/20,000 that your Xbox processes and essentially rolls the die when you complete the "drawing" of this random number Your misconception is like how people think the lottery is completely random, when it's a very complex algorithm that produces a "mostly" random set of numbers. So your math is wrong, therefor your logic is wrong. By the way I'm saying this as someone who bought their legendaries because I don't like to rely on luck. I only farm when I need materials or am bored and want to go to the most social part of destiny atm. Now go on, play the game how you want to and others will play how they want to, this post has done nothing to the farming community except give them the satisfaction of your envy. You have not tore down any peoples intentions of farming, and you have completely wasted your time writing this. Good day

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                          • Main difference is that farming rep takes effort and is (imo) incredibly boring. Going afk at the loot cave takes no effort and isn't boring.

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                          • My brain can't compootertate that maffmaticulated formulationism that is your post

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                          • For starters don't claim to be an old school gamer & then rag on grinding. More into what really matters. People grind for engrams because you can either do it one of a few ways. You can play them same strike missions over & over again with very little chance of a blue drop. You can play PvP with a very, very little chance of a blue drop or you could run Patrol with very little chance of a purple drop. Most people from what I know don't have enough friends for Raids. Nightfall just sucks (personal opinion, disagree all you want.) So that leaves good ol' farming. Guaranteed 15 drops in a hour (my personal experience, disagree all you want.) They're all very boring. Pick a poison & shut up.

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                          • Your math is all fake? Waste of post. Don't claim to analyze and then come in with bs

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                          • Just out of curiosity, what is the bigger waste of time... Loot farming or your thesis on why it's bad? #dontstoptillyouhearthepop

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